How Today President Putin Of Russia Defines Conflict With Volodymyr Zelensky Of Ukraine? No Longer “Mano-A-Mano” Now “Mano-A-Cincuenta Y Siete-Más” And… The US$340 Billion Question.

How Today President Putin Of Russia Defines Conflict With Volodymyr Zelensky Of Ukraine?  No Longer “Mano-A-Mano” Now “Mano-A-Cincuenta Y Siete-Más” 

Worth Risking US$340 Billion?  Yes, Because It’s Likely Refundable. 

From 2014 when the Russian Federation first invaded territory of Ukraine including Donbas Oblast (Donetsk and Luhansk) and Crimean Peninsula, through the 24 February 2022 invasion into new areas and further invade into existing areas, Vladimir Putin, President of the Russian Federation, viewed the conflict with Volodymyr Zelensky, President of Ukraine, as a battle landscape between the armed forces of the Russian Federation versus the armed forces of Ukraine. 

While there had been extensive training to the armed forces of Ukraine delivered since 2014 from outside of Ukraine, the equipment was primarily, but not exclusively, U.S.S.R.-era and pre-2014-era inventories.  Prior to 2022, the armed forces of each country had engaged in combat for eight years- they knew one another’s tactics. 

On the early morning of 24 February 2022 with missile strikes first in Kharkiv, the second-largest city in Ukraine, and then in Kyiv, the capital and largest city in Ukraine, President Putin believed he was fighting Volodymyr Zelensky, President of Ukraine.  Two swaggering tough guys who favor form-fitting t-shirts. 

Most though not all thirty (30) member countries of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) along with non-NATO member countries have provided since 2014 training and equipment to the armed forces of Ukraine.  An acceleration in deliveries of equipment and provision of training began in the fourth quarter of 2021.   

Today, nearing eight months later, President Putin believes his not battling one country, but is facing directly the collective commercial, economic, military, and political might, a colossus, consisting of the thirty members of NATO- although some member countries are not supportive of all NATO decisions relating to the Russian Federation; the twenty-seven (27) member countries of the European Union (EU)- although some member countries are not supportive of all EU decisions relating to the Russian Federation; and countries Australia, Japan, and South Korea among others. 

From the perspective of President Putin in his office within the walls of the Kremlin sitting at his desk or at a conference table- he is battling more than fifty-seven (57) opponents- NATO, EU, other countries, in addition to international financial institutions.   

That is the message delivered to the 146 million citizens of the Russian Federation residing across eleven (11) time zones in eighty-nine Federal Subjects, of which twenty-four (24) are Republics.  And, the Russian Federation shares borders with fourteen (14) countries which adds to tensions as maintaining territorial integrity (immigration, customs, etc.) along those borders require resources. 

For President Putin, he and his economy take measured solace with confidence the United States, members of the EU, and other countries will return US$340 billion in assets of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation frozen by countries including the United States (with approximately US$38 billion), Japan, Canada, United Kingdom, and EU-member countries including primarily among others France, Germany, and Switzerland.  He has reasons to be optimistic.  There are officials in governments and leadership in financial institutions who suggest that confiscating the US$340 billion will lead to potential consequences- countries may not place assets in the countries who froze and then confiscated and then redirected the funds; countries may use alternative currencies to the United States Dollar, United Kingdom Pound Sterling, Euro, and Yen among others.  There are officials and executives who suggest that the US$340 billion can be a carrot for the government of the Russian Federation to cease its war against Ukraine.  That will be a carrot of limited appeal.  Of note, the spokesperson of the government of the Russian Federation declared months ago that confiscation of the assets would be “outright theft.”  

Perhaps yesterday a plot twist that may deliver [slight] indigestion to President Putin.  Within the construct of an answer by Karine Jean-Pierre, Assistant to the President and Press Secretary at The White House, to a question about responsibilities of the government of the Russian Federation to Ukraine: “And, you know, as you saw -- I was just mentioning the G7 leaders -- they put out a statement [11 October 2022] following their meeting with President Zelenskyy today, you know: “[We] welcome President Zelenskyy[’s] readiness for a just peace,” which would “include the following elements: … ensuring Ukraine's recovery and reconstruction, including exploring avenues to do -- to do so with the funds from Russia;” and “pursuing accountability for Russian[’s] crimes committed during the war.”  Today, however, the odds remain quite good that all or most of the US$340 billion will be returning to Moscow.  

On 23 February 2022, the government of Ukraine did not rise to the definition of an existential threat to the government of the Russian Federation.  Today, from the perspective in Moscow, when a soldier is fighting in Ukraine, when a tank is rumbling along in Ukraine, when a missile is traveling through the skies of Ukraine, these activities are no longer actions defining an offense, they are action defining a defence.  The armed forces of the Russian Federation are defending the commercial, economic, military, and political integrity of 144 million citizens of the Russian Federation fighting the assets of more than fifty-seven entities aligned against it. 

The motion picture Erin Brockovich was released in 2000 with Ms. Julia Roberts (Erin Brockovich) and Mr. Albert Finney (Ed Masry) in the leading roles of an attorney and his assistant representing homeowners suing a utility company for claims of injuries due to leakage of chemicals into the water supply.  At the 2001 Academy Awards, Ms. Roberts won Best Actress, Mr. Finney was nominated for Best Supporting Actor, and Mr. Steven Soderbergh was nominated for Best Director.    

In the following excerpt from the motion picture screenplay, replacing the character Ed with President Putin provides a possible perspective from Moscow as to how it perceives today the conflict with Ukraine in terms of who the Russian Federation is actually fighting:  

Ed (Putin)- pauses, groans again, realizing what decision he's making.
Ed (Putin)- This is a whole different ball game,
Erin- A much bigger deal. Kinda like David and what's-his-name?
Ed (Putin)- Kinda like David and what's-his-name's whole fucking family. (heavy sigh) Okay, here's the deal -- if, and only if, you find me the evidence to back all this up -- I'll do it. I'll take it on.
Erin- she smiles victoriously.
Erin- You're doing the right thing, Mr. Masry.
Ed (Putin)- Yeah, yeah. Remind me of that when I'm filing for bankruptcy.

For the government of the Russian Federation, its messaging to the 140 million citizens of the country- we are doing pretty well considering almost the entire Anglo-Saxon industrialized world opposes us.  Germany in World War II did not have to face what today is opposing the Russian Federation.  They want to exterminate us.  Break apart the Russian Federation. 

What provides message ammunition for President Putin?  One example is this headline from an article published this week: “Australian troops could be sent to Ukraine to help train the country's armed forces following Russia’s “appalling” attack on Kyiv, Defence Minister Richard Marles has declared.” 

However, this is text from the article: ““We need to be making sure we are supporting Ukraine over the long term so that we're putting them in a position where they can actually resolve this conflict and end it on their own terms.”  Mr Marles said sending Australian personnel to train Ukrainian forces was under consideration, as was supplying extra weaponry to the nation.  “Training is one of the measures that is being looked at,” he said.  “We will be working up further support for Ukraine and that’s a conversation that we’re having.””  Minister Marles neither said nor suggested members of the armed forces of Australia would train in Ukraine members of the armed forces of Ukraine. 

Headlines reflect editorial position and editorial position sometimes reflects political position of the media entity. Government officials, and the public, often do not read beyond the headline, so context may be limited.

What remains true is since 2014 and with substantial (meaning an exponential multiplier) increases since 24 February 2022 in Ukraine is a robust presence of representatives of intelligence agencies and defense agencies from throughout the world including from the United States, and from members of NATO and EU.  They often compete for hotel rooms, apartments, and vehicles; and constantly see one another in hotel lobbies, restaurants, in coffee shops, and on trains.  This presence also includes, unofficially, representatives of the government of the Russian Federation.  

On 11 October 2022, Sergei Lavrov, Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation, shared “It seems to me that the Americans have been participating de facto in this war for a long time… This war is being controlled by the Anglo-Saxons.”