Permitting Suffering- A Connection Between President Putin And President Castro. And The Journey Ukrainians Don’t Want To Make.

A cold, raw, slight windy gray cloud-covered morning- snow.   

A moment: A father, mother and their three children are standing alongside their vehicle parked on the side of the road.  They all wear parkas- and each has a backpack.  The father kisses each of them, then gets into the vehicle, makes a U-turn and drives away.  He is not permitted to depart Ukraine because he is not yet sixty years of age- the government needs him to fight.  This may be the final moment they will be as one, a family, touching one another.  Two weeks ago, children were in school, stores were open, doctors were seeing patients, churches were full of parishioners.  Today, portions of Ukraine resemble portions of Syria during the most horrific of its decade-plus civil war.   

At checkpoint, driver requested to pull over.  Officer requests that truck, which he sees is empty, take women and children who are freezing after standing outside for hours.  Loaded to capacity, truck departs.  These passengers now ensure no blocking at checkpoints.   

For the passengers, they have avoided hours- forty or more of standing outside- cold, hungry, scared- no terrified.  Today, they caught a break with a truck that was not intended to stop for them- or anyone. 

They appreciate the ride, but despise the reason for it. But, and this is the heartbreak- they were able to depart their country faster and arrive to where they don’t want to go- faster.  How Godawful is that?  Explain the righteousness of this transaction to one’s children. 

The women and children are immensely grateful for the transportation.  Children cry.  Adults cry.  Walk required to border.  Past check-points.  Soldiers checking documents. 

The female immigration officer in the arriving country asks what is happening in the departing country.  Handing back passport and documents, whispers, “It must get better.  It must.” 

Regardless of the number of times one has viewed, been within a refugee exodus, the experience is searing- meaning that it is never forgotten- and not supposed to be forgotten.  The confrontation of right and wrong changes the soul- eyes constantly create liquids that only some force prevents from streaming down a cheek.  Even after a particular moment- sometimes long after, when thinking about it or sharing the moment with someone else, those tears create such blurriness that its difficult to see. 

Compare what is happening in Ukraine to the refugee exodus impacting Syria- with millions, many quite poor, seeking something- they don’t quite know what, in neighboring Lebanon (which is overwhelmed) and Turkey (which is overwhelmed).  The Ukrainian refugees are not poor and not living in dusty, water lacking, hot desert-like conditions where basic requirements (water, sewer, electric) are always threatened.  Ukrainians are not threatened from those within their borders.  They are threatened by those outside of their borders.  This is not a civil war.  This is not a religious war.  

Ukraine is not a third-world country.  Ukrainians are not third-world in anything.  The vehicles lining roads are the same makes and models as in the United States. 

These two weeks demonstrate the limitation of a collective response and collective for responsibility.   

Rhetoric has no boundaries.  Actions impacting others are commonplace.  A government’s decision to sacrifice the bounty of its citizenry for a greater good, a noble understanding, has shown not to travel well- its shelf life limited.  Not shelf-stable. 

There are unilateral and multilateral gestures that have become reality.  How effective, how impactful they are and will be in the short-term, medium-term, and long-term is unknown.   

Two weeks ago, an EU-member country intelligence officer in Ukraine believed that the Russian Federation might be content with portions of Ukraine east of the Dnieper River which transits north to south the country about midway between the country’s east and west borders.  

The fewer people located in Ukraine, the less complicated for the Russian Federation to manage Ukraine- if the goal is to manage Ukraine.  Thus far, in two-plus weeks, approximately 5% of Ukraine’s pre-invasion population of approximately 44 million have departed the country. 

As shared previously, the twenty-seven member European Union (EU) is unlikely to become the twenty-eight member EU by including as its newest member a country which is at war with any country, particularly the Russian Federation, and a country which does not have control of its borders or ports or airspace.  And, an attack upon a member of the EU would require a much different response by the EU- and implementing a response after a conflict has commenced will be problematic because then the Russian Federation would have attacked a member of the EU. 

A primary focus will be about suffering- who was prepared to suffer more.  A United States diplomat once shared with respect to the Republic of Cuba that then President Fidel Castro (1976-2008) would convey by actions and words to the United States government, “I am prepared to let my people suffer.  Are you prepared to let my people suffer?” 

When the reviews are authored about how the Russian Federation deemed the costs worth the effort to attack Ukraine, two moments will be instructive- as will what the responses from opponents were at the time:   

In 2008, the invasion of the South Ossetian Autonomous Oblast and the coastal area of Abkhazia, both within the territory of the Republic of Georgia (birthplace of Joseph Stalin) which emerged in 1991 independent of the U.S.S.R., during final year of the Bush-Cheney Administration (2001-2009).  Here, the United States government was under Republican Party control and self-identifying as conservative; and having advocated for and implemented invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq, did little unilaterally or multilaterally to dissuade the Russian Federation.    

In 2014, during the Obama-Biden Administration (2009-2017) the Russian Federation invaded, occupied, and then annexed the Crimean Peninsula located along the northern coast of the Black Sea, then within the territory of Ukraine which emerged in 1991 independent of the U.S.S.R.  Here, the United States government was under Democratic Party control and self-identifying as moderate-left; and having the experience of six years since the Russian Federation invasion of Georgia.  Nothing consequential was done to dissuade the Russian Federation.

 In 2022, eight years later, the United States government (Biden-Harris Administration 2021- ) is unilaterally and multilaterally doing, along with other countries, what governments should have done in 2008- which if had been done, might have resulted in a withdrawal by the Russian Federation from Georgia and may have forestalled, and perhaps prevented, the invasion of the Crimean Peninsula.   

At the time, the incursion into Georgia was not considered worth a confrontation with the Russian Federation.  At the time, the incursion into a peninsula- rather than the entire country, was not considered worth a confrontation.  Because of the lack of response to those two incursions, President Putin believed and continues to believe that eventually opponents outside of Ukraine will acknowledge “reality on the ground” in Ukraine, live with the results, and eventually re-engage with the Russian Federation- regardless of whether he remains head of government.    

Notice that music becomes an important, an inspiring or calming medium- paying more attention to the melody and the words- and determining their connectivity to what is happening in this country, this nation, Ukraine. 

If Ukraine, meaning the Ukrainian citizens, can repel the assets of the armed forces of the Russian Federation, then these moments won’t be accurately described as a “David versus Goliath.”  The better reference would be “David versus Goliath’s whole family.” 

Citizens of Europe, particularly those residing in countries considered eastern Europe, carry with them an ethos, a urethral connection to survivors and alumni of World War II which shapes their view of history and their view of how to prevent a repeat.   

For those residing in the United States, stories of World War II are about what happened in Europe and North Africa.   

For those residing in Europe and North Africa, stories of World War II are about what happened to their homes, to their schools, to their hospitals, to their farms.   

A looming question… Defining the enemy.  Is the common enemy Vladimir Putin, President of the Russian Federation, or is the common enemy the Russian Federation?  And, is the goal to force President Putin to order the Russian Federation to retreat?  Or, if the goal to destroy President Putin and the Russian Federation as currently constituted?  Is the question one of regime change or changing the behavior of the regime?