Ukraine Is Not Israel. Kyiv Should Stop Behaving Like Its Tel Aviv. Missing Is Politically Muscularity Critically Important In The United States.

There is one (1) member of the United States Congress, in the House of Representatives, who is of Ukrainian descent, The Honorable Victoria Spartz (Republican), 5th District, State of Indiana.  According to the United States Census, approximately .3% of the United States population identify as Ukrainian.   

There are approximately thirty-seven (37) members of the United States Congress (ten in the Senate and twenty-seven in the House of Representatives) who identify as Jewish, and they are in positions of party conference leadership, and committee and subcommittee leadership.  According to the United States Census, approximately 2% of the United States population identify as Jewish.  

An individual seeking office in the United States may be targeted for defeat- and be defeated, if not professing commercial, economic, military, and political support for the State of Israel.   

However, an individual seeking office in the United States will not win because they support commercial, economic, military, and political engagement with Ukraine.  That same individual could be defeated for supporting using United States taxpayer-borrowed funds for Ukraine rather than directing those funds to domestic endeavors.  There is fragility with respect to support for Ukraine. 

The government of Ukraine continues to embrace (unappealingly arrogantly too often) a belief that it has the same muscularity as the State of Israel with respect to doing whatever it wants to do while retaining unwavering support of the United States, both from its government and its citizenry, and from other countries.  The sustainable strategy would be to embrace appreciation and humility.  

For example, the recent Mossad-like car bomb assassination operation by the government of Ukraine which resulted in the death of twenty-nine-year-old Darya Dugina, rather than her father, Alexander Dugina, a staunch supporter of the government of the Russian Federation.  The decision by the government of Ukraine was criticized by the Biden-Harris Administration (2021- ) and by officials in other governments, although more quietly, as an unnecessary escalatory operation- the same type of non-military targeting the government of Ukraine has accused consistently the government of the Russian Federation conducting within Ukraine. 

The State of Israel has a history of successfully belittling, coercing, contradicting, demanding, denying, embracing, entitled, meddling, opposing, promoting, and provoking absent consequences, or nearly so, regardless of the positions of the United States government, specifically whomever occupies The White House.  One example, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) relating to Iran and its nuclear weapon development program- where two of the last three occupants of The White House believed it of value to not only the State of Israel, but to countries throughout the world.  Tel Aviv disagrees, as is their right.   

There are few consequences because of the influence of individuals and organizations who interact with appointed and elected officials at the federal, state, and local levels throughout the United States.  Added to the influence of individuals is the shared emotional impact from decades of attacks throughout the world upon individuals of Jewish descent, most memorably for many at the 1972 Olympic Games in Munich, Germany, where members of the Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO) were responsible for the murder of athletes representing the State of Israel.   

Despite a robust economy, robust defense sector, expanding commercial, economic, and political relationships with countries and nations with whom the State of Israel has conflicted with, taxpayers in the United States continue to provide more than US$3 billion annually (in addition to defense-related transactions) to taxpayers in the State of Israel.  When seeking to become prime minister, a candidate argued that the State of Israel no longer required assistance from taxpayers in the United States- the candidate won, and the assistance continued not only unabated but in an upward trajectory.  United States Congress delegations (CODELS) to the State of Israel are always in high demand- with unsurprising connectivity between support for issues important to the State of Israel, campaign contributions, and resources devoted against opposition candidates.   

Politicians in the United States fear being singled-out for anything other than a full-throated support for the State of Israel.  State of Israel-focused organizations have devoted considerable resources to support and to oppose candidates- with those who are opposed often defeated in primaries and general elections. 

Volodymyr Zelensky, President of Ukraine, is Jewish.  Members of the government of Ukraine are Jewish.  Yet, the State of Israel has been restrained in its commercial, economic, military, and political support for Ukraine.   

If the State of Israel was robust in its support to Ukraine, there would be a likeminded expansion in support to Ukraine by the United States.  For example, if the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) delivered Iron Dome anti-missile systems to Ukraine, which it has thus far refused to do.   

Why is the State of Israel reserved?  Primarily because it deems more important its unimpeded military-related access to Syria for directly attacking Syria, and indirectly individuals and organizations with connectivity to Iran and Lebanon.  And who guarantees this access?  The government of the Russian Federation. 

Ukraine is not entitled to commercial, economic, military, or political support from the United States, thirty member countries of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), or the twenty-seven-member country European Union (EU).   

Support for Ukraine is provided because countries and country organizations deem in their interest to support Ukraine.  Some countries support Ukraine, but maintain connectivity with the Russian Federation- and they see no conflict with that position; think Turkiye and India.  Despite arguments to the contrary, the decisions by the government of the Russian Federation relating to Ukraine do not rise to the definition of existential. 

Resolving what has happened and is happening in Ukraine is important, but does not by itself achieve the lofty heights as a moment or series of moments which have defined or further still be define civilization, impact every country and their populations.  Is there connectivity from the outcome in Ukraine to what the government of China does relating to the island of Taiwan?  Yes, leadership in Beijing is modeling how governments- and sanctions imposed by those governments, would impact it should an effort commence to absorb with force Taiwan.  Does the State of Israel look at the Russian Federation absorbing territory in Ukraine to which it is not entitled as a reason to be an example and return the Golan Heights to the control of Syria?  No.   

Important for the government of Ukraine to remain appreciative rather than embrace a strategy of entitlement and a demanding posture while remembering that the armed forces of Ukraine have succeeded thus far in meaningful measure due to the training and equipment delivered by NATO members and non-NATO members (Australia for example) since 2014 and the training and equipment delivered since 24 February 2022. 

Since 24 February 2022, the United States government has borrowed on behalf of United States taxpayers approximately US$60 billion related to Ukraine- and the expectation is the value will reach US$100 billion by 24 February 2023.  Add to this value the tens of billions of dollars that collectively EU member countries have contributed, NATO members have contributed, and non-NATO members have contributed (Australia and Japan, for instance).    

Traditionally, any opportunity for the United States to export military equipment has widespread domestic political support because the manufacturing facilities are located throughout the fifty states- so all 535 members of the United States Congress (100 in the Senate and 435 in the House of Representatives) may embrace the employment that comes with those exports.  In 2022, the calculus has been altered not by Ukraine, but by the residual impact upon the global economy of the pandemic, COVID-19, which commenced in January 2020 and continues its reverberations.  Financial resources are scarce and the priorities for those resources are subject to intense debate.

Support to Ukraine will continue to be a discussion about delivering what countries believe Ukraine requires to defend itself versus what countries believe Ukraine requires to expel the armed forces of the Russian Federation from the territory of Ukraine- the areas prior to 2014, prior to 2022, and as exist today.  The debate will continue to be about what Ukraine wants versus what is believed that Ukraine needs.  The State of Israel does not have that issue because of its muscularity within Washington DC and in capitals in other countries, but most importantly in Washington DC.   

The government of Ukraine will disagree with this linear thinking believing that it, particularly its military commanders on the ground, are best positioned to determine that is required both for Ukraine’s defense and for Ukraine’s offense.  They have a point. NATO remains fearful that the armed forces of Ukraine will use NATO-provisioned weapons to attack within the territory of the Russian Federation despite public assurances not to do so from the government of Ukraine.  

Which returns the discussion to the behavior of Ukraine and its tendency to emulate behaviors by successive governments of the State of Israel.  Governments in Tel Aviv successfully for decades used hostility towards it by the governments of those countries surrounding it as leverage to obtain support for its decisions from the United States government and advocates appointed, elected, and organizations.  

There is today one country that has exhibited hostility towards Ukraine.  True, the Russian Federation is not the same individually or collectively as Egypt, Jordan, Iran, Iraq, Lebanon, Libya, Saudi Arabia, and Syria in terms of potential destructive capability.  This makes easier for governments to move cautiously.  Of course, for the government of Ukraine, a daily dosage of caution can result in lives lost, families destroyed, children orphaned.   

For the Russian Federation, it no longer views the conflict as one-on-one, Russian Federation versus Ukraine.  Moscow has viewed since early March 2022 the conflict as fifty-seven-plus-to-one defined as collectively the members of NATO, EU, and other countries aligned against it.  So, when there are setbacks, the message to the citizenry of the Russian Federation, and to allies of the Russian Federation is- we are doing pretty well considering the resources against us.   

The government of the Russian Federation has too reminded continually the world that the dissolution of the fifteen Republic U.S.S.R. on 26 December 1991 was a catastrophic event- for them and for the stability of the world order, as they view it.  There will, however, be no reconstituting the U.S.S.R.  

The war in Ukraine has impacted negatively commercial, economic, military, and political infrastructures in countries and nations throughout the world.  The outcome of the war in Ukraine will not shift permanently the axis of how governments will engage with one another.  The axis will remain wobbly for a time, return upright, and await the next event, from which again it will survive. 

For the government of Ukraine, better to learn from strategies deployed by the State of Israel, but think carefully prior to emulating those strategies. Muscularity has many definitions. The impact from landing a punch is not always defined by how much force was used… it is defined by where the punch lands.