Elasticity Theory Determines Outcome Of Russia-Ukraine War. The Greater Elasticity, The Higher Level Of Pain. Who Has Greater Elasticity? For How Long? Time To End The “Production”?
Elasticity Theory Determines Outcome Of Russian Federation-Ukraine War.
The Greater The Elasticity, The Higher Level Of Pain Inflicted.
Who Has Greater Elasticity? And For How Long?
President Zelensky Stretches Towards President Putin.
President Putin Stretches Towards President Zelensky.
Both Heads Of State Are Heading Towards One Another. Not Face-To-Face, But Back-To Back While Turning Their Heads To Make Certain They Eventually Align.
President Zelensky And Mr. Yermak Need To Stop Trying To “Produce” Peace Like A Television Show- With Sponsorship Opportunities, Preferred Seating, Suite Upgrades, Prequels, Multi-Part Chapters, And Advertising Teasers.
They Continue To Seek More Producers For Their Show. The Number Of Producers Does Not Guarantee Success. The Audience Defines Success. They Need Only One Person In The Audience- President Putin.
President Zelensky And Mr. Yermak Minimize Fact That Audiences In Ukraine And Russia Continue To Die; They Don’t Want A Show. They Want A Negotiation- Or Meaningful Efforts.
Another Installment Of The Peace Summit Is Wasting Time. The Message Is President Zelensky Is Doing Whatever He Can To Delay A Face-To-Face Negotiation. That Is Not A Good Look.
Call President Putin’s Bluff. President Zelensky Should Accept An Invitation From Recep Tayyip Erdogan, President of the Republic of Turkiye (2014- ), To Visit Ankara. He Should Arrive In Ankara On The Appointed Day And Time… And See If President Putin Attends.
Ending the Russian Federation-Ukraine war will be guided by whichever government wants greater, believes it has greater, and has greater elasticity.
On 24 February 2022, the armed forces of the Russian Federation invaded and further invaded the territory of Ukraine in what Vladimir Putin, President of the Russian Federation (2000-2008 and 2012- ), defined as a Special Military Operation [SMO] then on 22 December 2022 he redefined as a war. The initial invasion of Ukraine by the armed forces of the Russian Federation was in part from the territory of Belarus.
The war between the Russian Federation and Ukraine did not commence on 24 February 2022. The roots began their trajectories on 20 February 2014 when the armed forces of the Russian Federation invaded the Crimean Peninsula and the area known as the Donbas Region (Donetsk Oblast and Luhansk Oblast).
Elasticity for a government is determined by its degree of accountability (transparency, pluralistic electoral bodies, independent judiciary, independent media, substantial commercial, economic, financial, political, and social engagement with neighboring countries) to its citizens.
Meaning whichever executive branch and armed forces have the flexibility to do what they want irrespective of what citizens may want and not be consumed by the consequences of decisions.
The more executive (authoritarian) and less democratically responsive is a government, the more elasticity it has due to less accountability to the citizenry.
The less executive (authoritarian) and more democratically responsive is a government, the less elasticity it has due to more accountability to the citizenry.
President Putin has greater elasticity due to the structure of the government and the historical behavior of the population of the Russian Federation in response to decisions by political leadership.
Volodymyr Zelensky, President of Ukraine (2019-), has less elasticity due to the structure of the government- an elected multi-party legislature and a population which can more easily hold to account decisions by both the government and political leadership along with an increasingly resilient and confrontational independent media guided by youth.
He also has an additional constraint- the disparate interests of those governments which are providing commercial, economic, financial, humanitarian, military, political, and social support. They will not condone large-scale death of civilians residing in the Russian Federation, including within territories occupied by the armed forces of the Russian Federation within the internationally-recognized boundaries of Ukraine.
The government of the Russian Federation as a principal component of its strategy to gain real estate within Ukraine has and will continue to target areas occupied by civilians and used by civilians. Civilian casualties are acceptable, are a necessary component of its strategy to impact civilians to the extent they petition the government of Ukraine to negotiate with the government of the Russian Federation.
The government of Ukraine is unable to match the strategy of the government of the Russian Federation.
While many citizens in Ukraine would have no issue with the armed forces of Ukraine targeting apartment buildings, factories, schools, railway stations, playgrounds, churches, parks, shopping malls, and other areas with sizable civilian populations within the Russian Federation, the elasticity under which the government of Ukraine must operate prohibits quid pro quo, tit for tat: Body for body- man for man, woman for woman, child for child, baby for baby, infant for infant, parent for parent, brother for brother, sister for sister, grandparent for grandparent.
This means offensive and defensive operations by the armed forces of Ukraine will remain out of balance with offensive and defensive operations by the armed forces of the Russian Federation.
The armed forces of the Russian Federation will target what the armed forces of Ukraine will not target.
Absent equilibrium, as long as one side is accepting death of civilians as a necessary component of its overall strategy for victory, the other side will be at a disadvantage.
As long as President Putin has support (and wants) to target civilians and civilian infrastructure in Ukraine, and President Zelensky does not have support (and does not want) to target civilians and civilian infrastructure in the Russian Federation, the obstacles for the government of Ukraine to prevail- complete withdraw of the armed forces of the Russian Federation from all real estate within the internationally-recognized boundaries of Ukraine will remain elusive.
President Putin is willing to do and can do what President Zelensky is not willing to do and cannot do. To prevail, President Zelensky may need to be more like President Putin, so President Putin is fighting a mirror image of himself.
That mirror image creation does have potential consequences for Ukraine. If the armed forces of Ukraine commence large-scale destructive operations throughout the Russian Federation, President Putin will instruct the armed forces of the Russian Federation to respond forcefully and asymmetrically. More deaths in Ukraine. Many more deaths in Ukraine.
Elasticity Theory is not unlike a two-sided sword. Using the weapon to its fullest effectiveness will impact both sides of the sword.
LINK TO COMPLETE ANALYSIS IN PDF FORMAT
RT (24 June 2024): The deaths of four Russian civilians in a Ukrainian attack on Crimea were justified as the peninsula’s inhabitants are “occupiers,” Ukrainian leader Vladimir Zelensky’s top aide, Mikhail Podoliak, declared on Monday.
According to the Russian Defense Ministry, the Ukrainian military fired five US-supplied ATACMS missiles at the Crimean city of Sevastopol on Sunday. Russian air defense systems destroyed four of the projectiles in mid-air, but the fifth was damaged, veered off course, and detonated its cluster warhead over a packed beach, killing four civilians and injuring more than 150. Two of those killed were children. The Kremlin described the attack as an act of “terrorism,” and argued that the US bears equal responsibility for the deaths. “Cluster munitions in ATACMS missiles cannot be launched without the participation of American specialists and support from US intelligence,” Russia’s envoy to the US, Anatoly Antonov, stated. “It is no coincidence that enemy drones are circling over the Black Sea almost every day.” In a post to his Telegram channel, Podoliak defended the Ukrainian attack. “There are not and cannot be any ‘beaches’, ‘tourist zones’ and other fictitious signs of ‘peaceful life’ in Crimea,” he wrote. “Crimea is definitely a foreign territory occupied by Russia, where hostilities are taking place, a full-scale war is ongoing.”
“Crimea is also a large military camp and warehouse, with hundreds of direct military targets, which the Russians cynically try to mask and cover with their own civilians,” he continued, adding that these civilians are considered “occupiers” by Kiev. Crimea has been considered Russian land since imperial times, and was an autonomous republic within the Soviet Union when it was transferred to the Ukrainian SSR by Soviet Premier Nikita Kruschev in 1954 for logistical reasons. The peninsula remained in Ukrainian hands after the fall of the USSR, until its people voted overwhelmingly to join the Russian Federation in 2014. Prior to the 2014 referendum, the Kiev government rejected a number of similar plebiscites during the 1990s. The US and NATO view Crimea as “illegally annexed” Ukrainian territory, and have demanded that Moscow return the region to Kiev’s control. The Russian Foreign Ministry summoned US ambassador Lynne Tracy on Monday morning to answer for Washington’s role in the attack. According to a statement released by the ministry, Russian officials told Tracy that Sunday’s “bloody atrocity” will “not go unpunished.” The US Embassy in Moscow has yet to comment. When asked for its take on the deadly Ukrainian strike, the Pentagon replied that “we have seen the reports and have nothing to say.”
LINKS
https://www.rt.com/russia/599887-podoliak-crimea-beach-civilians
