Relationship By Trump-Vance Administration With Erdogan-Yilmaz Administration Will Require Mutual “All Hands-On Deck” Approach. Role Of CMS Administrator Could Be Important.
Relationship By Trump-Vance Administration (2025-2029) With Erdogan-Yilmaz Administration (2023-2028) Will Require From Each An “All Hands-On Deck” Approach, But That Will Not Prevent Turbulent Political Seas.
Two Tough Guys Wanting To Project Toughness And A Desire To Serve-Up Wins For Their Respective Voters… And As Examples To Other Governments.
CMS Administrator Could Have An Important Role.
An Individual Of Turkish Descent Will Manage What Would Be World’s 15th Largest Economy.
The most important members of the Trump-Vance Administration (2025-2029) whose portfolios will include the Republic of Turkiye, once confirmed: Marco Rubio, United States Secretary of State; Mike Waltz, Assistant to the President for National Security Affairs; Thomas Barrack, United States Ambassador to the Republic of Turkiye; Richard Grennell, Presidential Envoy for Special Missions; and Dr. Mhemet Cengiz Oz, Administrator of the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) within the United States Department of Health and Human Services (HHS). The CMS Administrator position is subject to the Advice and Consent (Article II, Section 2, Clause 2 of the United States Constitution) confirmation process by the United States Senate.
During the Trump-Pence Administration (2017-2021), Mr. Grenell served as United States ambassador to Germany, Special Presidential Envoy for Serbia and Kosovo Peace Negotiations, and Acting Director of National Intelligence (DNI). President-elect Trump wrote: “Ric will work in some of the hottest spots around the World, including Venezuela and North Korea.”
For Recep Tayyip Erdogan, President of the Republic of Turkiye (2014- ), there will be one among these five members of the Trump-Vance Administration with whom he can sit and have a coffee and sweets while speaking Turkish. No interpreter required. That’s important.
While the CMS Administrator has no foreign policy role, during his first term then-President and now President-elect Trump was not adverse to engaging politically unorthodox individuals inside of government and outside of government when he was seeking a negotiating advantage.
The CMS Administrator (“the most challenging technical, policy and political job in government”) oversees a budget or more than US$1.5 trillion- approximately 25% of total United States government annual expenditures, for health insurance programs covering more than 150 United States citizens and residents through regulation and guidance for the prices doctors, hospitals, and pharmaceutical companies are paid for many medical services. The United States population is approximately 335 million. For perspective:
The CMS annual budget of more than US$1.5 trillion is larger than the 2023 approximately US$1.1 trillion Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of Turkiye.
If the CMS were a country, it would rank 15th among the G20 ahead of Saudi Arabia, Turkiye, Netherlands, Indonesia, and Spain. G20: Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Republic of Korea, Russian Federation, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Turkiye, United Kingdom, United States.
“The Biden-Harris Administration [2021-2025] is proposing a rule that would require the government to cover weight-loss drugs for Medicare and Medicaid patients, potentially expanding access for millions of Americans with obesity- and presenting a big medical bill as well as a challenge for the incoming Trump-Vance administration. The new rule would give an estimated 3.4 million older Americans on Medicare, and four million more adults in Medicaid programs for the poor, access to weight-loss treatment, according to The White House. Medicare now pays for drugs like Novo Nordisk’s Ozempic and Eli Lilly’s Mounjaro for people with health conditions such as diabetes. The proposal, which must go through a formal rulemaking process, would slash out-of-pocket costs by as much as 95% for drugs that can carry a price tag of US$1,000.00 a month. The benefits, if enacted, are likely to become popular, which could make any efforts by Trump to limit access politically perilous.”
“CMS oversees insurance marketplaces established by the Affordable Care Act (ACA), known as Obamacare. Mr. Trump unsuccessfully tried to overturn large portions of the law during his first term, and has been vague about his ambitions for it now. Dr. Oz has supported the law’s goal of expanded health insurance coverage, though he has been critical of its details, characterizing it as a government takeover of the health care system.”
Dr. Oz will have an almost immeasurable level of visibility during the Trump-Vance Administration which will make him a target of political opportunity and opportunism. Supporters and opponents will hold him responsible for interpreting the Hippocratic Oath accepted by most physicians. Dr. Oz will have more than 150 million patients.
If his decisions as CMS Administrator are popular with a majority of those impacted, then his domestic and global political value increases- and President Trump could well use him for engagement with President Erdogan, particularly for an expected by President Erdogan to The White House in 2025.
CMS Administrator Oz will be the most senior member of the Trump-Vance Administration who is Muslim, follows Islam, reads the Quran, and with whom President Erdogan could visit- and converse in the same language, Turkish. Not only will they share a language, but they will also share a culture, a history and, of immense importance to President Erdogan, religious beliefs. But…
Does this sharing of a common language mean necessarily CMS Administrator Oz will convince President Erdogan to return the S-400 missile system to the Russian Federation? No.
Does this mean necessarily CMS Administrator OZ will obtain a refund for the US$1.4 billion deposit the government of Turkiye delivered to the United States government for F-35 aircraft that was eventually canceled. No.
Does mean necessarily CMS Administrator Oz will convince President Erdogan to revise his position on the activities in Syria of individuals of Kurdish descent who assist the government of the United States? No.
Does this mean necessarily CMS Administrator Oz will convince President Erdogan to revise his position on imposing sanctions upon the government of the Russian Federation and individuals of Russian descent? No.
Does this mean necessarily CMS Administrator Oz will convince President Erdogan to revise his position on commercial, economic, and political relationships with the Cuba and Venezuela? No.
Does a “No” mean the Trump-Vance Administration should forgo including Dr. Oz in engagements with President Erdogan? Certainly not. Unwise to expect the Trump-Vance Administration to leave unused an important asset.
Mhemet Cengiz Oz, MD was born on 11 June 1960 in the city of Cleveland in the Commonwealth of Ohio, which became the 17th state of the Union when President Thomas Jefferson (1801-1809) endorsed the United States Congress’s decision to grant statehood on 19 February 1803. Dr. Oz’s parents were born in Turkiye.
Dr. Oz has citizenship in the United States and in the Republic of Turkiye, graduated from Harvard University Medical School, is a renowned heart surgeon, served in the armed forces of the Republic of Turkiye, is a best-selling author with more than twelve books published, hosted a syndicated television program, voted in the 2018 presidential election in the Republic of Turkiye, and has resided for decades in the State of New Jersey. He is married and has four children.
On 17 May 2022, Dr. Oz won a seven-candidate primary for the nomination of the Republican Party in the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania for the United States Senate, but lost in the general election.
“President-elect Trump's selection for ambassador to Turkiye, Tom Barrack, 77 years old, is a longtime friend of the Republican president-elect. He is a private equity executive and has been previously been charged with unlawfully acting as an agent of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and was acquitted in 2022 of all nine counts he faced. “For three decades, Tom successfully managed a global private equity firm. He is a well-respected and experienced voice of reason to a wide range of thought leaders in both political and business circles,” wrote President-elect Trump. Mr. Barrack was born and raised in Southern California, received a Bachelor of Arts degree from the University of Southern California and the University of San Diego School of Law. His grandparents were Lebanese Christians who immigrated in 1900 to the United States from Zahlé, Lebanon. Mr. Barrack was raised in Culver City, California, where his father was a grocer and his mother was a secretary.”
Link To Related Analysis
