Voices Focusing Upon “Just And Lasting Peace” And “Putin Will Try Again” Fail To Grasp What Motivates President Trump. He Views Cease Fire, However Temporary, As Win For Him, His Legacy.
Too Much Hyperventilating. President Trump Focusing Realistically On What Is Likely Obtainable Quickly Rather Than What Is Desired Long-Term.
President Trump Views A Cease Fire Is A Win For Him, For His Legacy.
He Views A Cease Fire Through The Optics Of A Trump/Putin/Zelensky Cease Fire Document Signing- Where He Uses The Presidential Sharpie.
Voices Focusing Upon “Just And Lasting Peace” And “Putin Will Try Again” Fail To Grasp What Motivates President Trump.
President Trump Is Not Obsessing On What President Putin Wants Or What President Zelensky Wants. He Is Focusing Upon What President Putin Has A Capacity To Obtain And What President Zelensky Must Accept. There Is A Substantial Difference. February 2025 Is Not February 2022.
The Trump-Vance Administration Does Not Believe The Interests Of The United States Must Align With The Interests Of Ukraine.
The Most Vociferous Opponents To President Trump’s Efforts May Not Be In Kyiv Or In Moscow, But In The Capitals Of Europe.
Trump-Vance Administration Is Looking Past The Tenure Of President Putin While Some NATO Members, EU Members, Government Of Ukraine Refuse To Do So.
President Zelensky Has Continued His Strategy Of Insulting Anyone Who Disagrees With Him And Those Who He Needs.
While President Zelensky’s Frustration, Even Scorn Is Understandable, Insulting President Trump; Implying That His Superficial Vanity Will Guide Him, Valid Or Not, Is Unproductive To Lay And Continue To Replenish As A Trail Of Insults Underneath The Head Of State Who Will Directly Influence The Future Of Ukraine.
Ukraine Is Not As Important To The United States As Ukraine Wants It To Be. February 2025 Is Not February 2022.
President Trump Knows He Can’t Control What Might Happen Five Years From Now- But Is Confident He Can Influence What Happens Until 12:00 PM On 20 January 2029.
There is an unproductive contagion making its way through the global punditry, former military members, and current and former government officials.
Basically, many are overthinking. A focus upon wanting political chess rather than political tik-tac-toe. Too much hyperventilating.
They are attempting to diagnose, illuminate statements by Donald Trump, 47th President of the United States (2025-2029), and officials within the Trump-Vance Administration (2025-2029) to fit within the paradigm of norms rather than accept the relative simplicity those statements reflect.
The “plan to end the war” for President Trump has a singular beginning rather than a multi-faceted one.
He asks Vladimir Putin, President of the Russian Federation (2000-2008 and 2012- ), for a favor: Instruct the armed forces of the Russian Federation to suspend their operations relating to Ukraine. President Putin agrees if Volodymyr Zelensky, President of Ukraine (2019-2025; extended due to imposition of martial law in 2022), agrees. President Trump creates a cease fire- which remains in place while delegations make progress towards what happens next. The government first to violate the cease fire will be subject to punishment led by the United States. For President Trump, the calculus is that simple.
The telephone call on 12 February 2025 with President Trump and President Putin, along with their respective staff members listening and transcribing every word- seeking to interpret leaders’ cadence, inflections, hesitations, and tone for advantage, represented the first chapter of a multi-chapter effort to end the military conflict that has absorbed the Russian Federation and Ukraine since 24 February 2022. Not from 2014.
On 24 February 2022, the armed forces of the Russian Federation invaded and further invaded the territory of Ukraine in what President Putin defined as a Special Military Operation [SMO] then on 22 December 2022 he redefined as a war. The initial invasion of Ukraine by the armed forces of the Russian Federation was in part from the territory of Belarus.
The war between the Russian Federation and Ukraine did not commence on 24 February 2022. The roots began their trajectories on 20 February 2014 when the armed forces of the Russian Federation invaded the Crimean Peninsula and the area known as the Donbas Region (Donetsk Oblast and Luhansk Oblast).
This first chapter is entitled, Transition. It begins a transition from seeking reasons to say no to seeking reasons to say yes. Focusing upon the lowest acceptable realities on the ground- not what is wanted, not what is just, but what is acceptable, doable even temporarily, short term.
One result will be rhetorical distance from heads of state with their respective governments. That leadership will be required to “make a deal” despite misgivings from members of the executive, members of the legislative, and members of the military.
Critical to appreciate President Trump is not focused today on obtaining a “just and lasting peace” between the government of the Russian Federation and the government of Ukraine.
While President Putin leads the Russian Federation and President Zelensky leads Ukraine, neither head of state will be satisfied that their respective objectives have been achieved. Their respective citizenry, particularly those who vote and those who pay taxes, are far more elastic in what is acceptable to end the military component of the war.
President Trump recognizes that the world has become accustomed to changes in policy and changes in statutes when one administration ends and another begins. This not only applies to the United States, but to the Russian Federation and to Ukraine. Challenging to bind a successor to decisions of a predecessor.
President Trump knows that the next leaders of the Russian Federation will not have the generational connectivity to the U.S.S.R. (1922-1991)- and its fifteen republics which in 1991 became countries. President Trump has signaled that President Zelensky should not serve another term in office. New perspectives will benefit each government, although only after a cease fire is in place.
For President Trump, obtaining a cease fire provides the foundation for everything else. He is operating from the perspective that a cease fire may be all that is obtainable during his final four-year term in office.
The cease fire may last days, months, or perhaps years while negotiations about borders, repatriation of prisoners, reparations for damages throughout Ukraine, and use of the approximately US$320 billion in Central Bank of the Russian Federation assets frozen outside of the Russian Federation since 24 February 2022 will last years- and could have a transitional timeline of ten years or more.
The White House views a successful cease fire as a victory to President Trump. Even if the cease fire does not endure, that he negotiated successfully will be how he views his role as the person who brought peace, however temporary, to the Russian Federation and to Ukraine. This means, from his perspective, the Nobel Peace Prize should rightfully be his in 2025. From the perspective of the occupant of the Oval Office, whomever disrupts the cease fire- that is on them, not on President Trump.
What President Trump is doing with President Putin has been criticized by the government of Ukraine, some members of the thirty-two country Brussels, Belgium-based North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and some members of the twenty-seven country Brussels, Belgium-based European Union (EU) for recognizing and accepting the real estate within the internationally-recognized boundaries Ukraine occupied by the armed forces of the Russian Federation along with objecting to membership for Ukraine in NATO.
NATO membership for Ukraine is not guaranteed and is reversible. Any decision relating to Ukraine membership in NATO is likely to be taken by heads of state and heads of government who are not yet in office. Within the next five years, a majority of NATO member countries will have new administrations- and no one can predict the positions of those administrations. There also exists a healthy majority of current administrations who are not inclined to provide NATO membership while President Zelensky is in office. It’s personal for them- he has insulted many.
Despite statements to the contrary, there is not a required unanimity of members of NATO supporting membership for Ukraine in NATO regardless of whether the government of Ukraine was in a war with the government of the Russian Federation. They fear a government of Ukraine will always have unresolved grievances with the government of the Russian Federation- and would create a focus imbalance in NATO. The same can be said for Ukraine membership in the EU where some members believe Ukraine will have an obsessive focus toward the Russian Federation which will also create a focus imbalance in the EU.
President Trump has reinforced the importance of the government of Ukraine becoming a member of the EU as that connectivity will have lasting economic impact upon the citizens of Ukraine. The armed forces of the Russian Federation neither invaded a member of NATO nor of the EU.
The Trump-Vance Administration is focusing upon what is most easily doable today toward the goal of a cease fire.
The statements and re-statements by Peter Hegseth, United States Secretary of Defense, and JD Vance, Vice President of the United States, about NATO membership for Ukraine and members of the United States armed forces in Ukraine is not dissimilar to wording from what was projected during the Biden-Harris Administration (2021-2025) and by individual NATO members. The White House is deploying “strategic ambiguity” despite the realities known to everyone.
Those who wanted a different outcome from the Trump-Vance Administration have only themselves to blame for not recognizing realities on the ground- and importantly how President Trump would recognize realities on the ground. Often, financial self-interest has led opinion crafters to promote what have primarily been illusionary objectives.
Anyone only needs to listen to President Trump’s statements about “[a]ll those dead people. Young, young, beautiful people. They’re like your kids, two million of them- and for no reason” in Ukraine and the Russian Federation to appreciate his focus. First, for an end, temporary or permanent, to the military conflict. That begins with a cease fire. Second, if possible, a “just and lasting peace.” He views them in that order. He views them separated.
Lastly, by its statements thus far, the Trump-Vance Administration is implicitly acknowledging a cease fire will permit both the armed forces of the Russian Federation and the armed forces of Ukraine to rearm, replace, rest, and prepare for further conflict. There is no means to prevent it so spending time to craft (negotiate) a preventive is not productive. The only logical decision is to accept it as a known and place emphasis on migrating any cease fire into a status with greater permanence. The only certainties will be uncertainties.
Unknown, but unlikely, governments of the People’s Republic of China, Democratic People's Republic of Korea, and Islamic Republic of Iran will agree- or even if they do agree will adhere to a suspension of military equipment to the armed forces of the Russian Federation while the cease fire is in effect. Unknown, but unlikely, that NATO members and non-NATO members will suspend deliveries of military equipment to Ukraine.
For the government of Ukraine, a yet unanswered question is at what moment will the death of one more member of the armed forces of Ukraine, one more civilian, be too much to accept and necessitate acceptance of a cease fire when the only immediate deliverable will be a suspension of the military component of the war.