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For Kyiv, Might War With Russia Be Its Vietnam War? USSR’s Vietnam War Was Afghanistan. Ukraine Repeat For Russia? Are Ukraine And Russia There Yet? No, But Trajectories May Be Aligning

For Kyiv, Might War With Russian Federation Be Its Vietnam War

Then-U.S.S.R.’s Vietnam War Was In Afghanistan.  Is Ukraine A Repeat For Russian Federation?

Is Ukraine And Now The Russian Federation There Yet?  No, But Trajectories May Be Aligning.

Timeline United States: After Seven Years, A Total Of 3.1 Million Stationed In Country, A Peak Deployment Of 543,000 Soldiers In April 1969, And Eventually 58,220 Dead, The United States Ended The Vietnam War.  For Comparison, Approximately 15,000 U.S.S.R. Soldiers Died During Ten Years In Afghanistan.   

Distance Of Saigon, Capital Of Then South Vietnam, And Washington DC: 9,001 Miles.  Miles From Moscow To Kyiv- 533 Miles.  Russian Federation And Ukraine Share A 1,282-Mile Border.

Washington And Moscow Ended Their Vietnam (1955-1975) And Afghanistan (1979-1989) Experiences In Part Due To Youth Protesting (Particularly At Colleges And Universities)- And Killed (1970- Kent State University), Parents Of The Dead And Wounded Protesting, Academia Encouraging And Supporting Their Students, Politicians Throughout The Ideological Spectrum Shifting Their Views, Taxpayers Objecting To Expenditures, And Journalists Turning Their Reporting Against The Government.

During The Vietnam War, Minorities And Lower Income Groups Were Disproportionally In Combat.  Families Of Wealth And Political Connections Prevented Their Children From Serving In Vietnam.  Some Fled To Canada And Other Countries.  Some Similarities Today In Ukraine And Russian Federation.

Youth In Ukraine And In Russian Federation Are Seeking To Avoid Participating In The War.  They Remain Active On Social Media Applications- But For Many That Is As Far As They Will Go.  During The Vietnam War, There Was Draft- As Today In Ukraine And The Russian Federation.

Today, Parents Are Increasing Their Public Criticism.  Politicians Are Voicing Concern.  Some Media Reporting Is Shifting, Nuanced, Its Opinion Pendulum And Willingness To Ask Questions.  Weapons With Bullets Are Instruments Of Persuasion.  So Too Can Be Journalists With Their Words.   

President Volodymyr Zelensky, President Of Ukraine, Needs To Trust Further The Voters- Both Those Supporting Him And Those Opposed To Him.  Presidential And Parliament (Verkhovna Rada) Elections Scheduled For March 2024 Should Take Place- And Martial Law Should Be Removed Six Months Prior So Opposition Parties May Have Access To All Of The Tools In The Toolbox Of Democracy.  Ironically, The Russian Federation Will Have Its Presidential Election In March 2024.

  • The Rationale For Secrecy: If Citizens Of Ukraine Know The Number Of Dead Members Of The Armed Forces Of Ukraine And Dead Civilians, Support For The War Will Be Impacted And May Fracture If The Numbers Are Substantial.  The Armed Forces Of The Russian Federation Will Gain Insight From The Numbers From Which To Model Effectiveness And Longevity Of Resistance.  However, The Russian Federation Will Have Similar Risks From Their Own Data Disclosures.

  • Those Reasons For Secrecy Are Valid.  But Transparency Is More Important For A Democracy.  Secrecy In War, Not Trusting Electorate, Not Trusting Taxpayers, Becomes Easier For A Government To Maintain Post-War.  That’s Dangerous For Ukraine And Russian Federation, Particularly With Systemic Corruption In Each Country.

According To The United Nations Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR), More Than 4,400 Members Of The Armed Forces Of Ukraine Died From 2014 Through 2021 And More Than 13,000 Members Of The Armed Forces Of Ukraine Have Died From 24 February 2022 Through Today.  The United States Government Estimates 120,000 Dead And Wounded Without Distinction As To Each.  London, United Kingdom-Based BBC Reported Confirming Identities Of 17,375 Russian Federation Military Deaths.  Most Recent Government And Reporting Estimates Russian Federation Military Deaths From 35,000 To 171,160.  Neither The Government Of Ukraine Nor Government Of The Russian Federation Have Published Official Data On Fatalities, Wounded, And Missing. 

  • Given The Vitality Of Media Within Ukraine And From Outside Focusing Upon Ukraine, Into The Public Domain Will Continue To Enter Data As To Fatalities Of The Armed Forces Of Ukraine- Better That Zelensky Administration Volunteer It Than Respond To It.

The More Distance Between 24 February 2022 And Publication Of Official Data Will Increase Public Distrust Of Government Institutions- If The Public Looses Confidence In The Government, Seeking Continuing Support Becomes Fractured. 

Citizens Do Not Want To Be Lied To.  Paraphrasing A Well-Known Statement: “It’s Not The Lie That Destroys Support, It’s The Cover-up.”

  • From Associated Press: “And Ukraine itself? While [Volodymyr] Zelensky[, President of Ukraine] acknowledged that the war has “changed us,” he said that in the end, it has made his society stronger.  “It could’ve gone one way, to divide the country, or another way – to unite us,” he said. “I’m so thankful. I’m thankful to everybody – every single partner, our people, thank God, everybody – that we found this way in this critical moment for the nation. Finding this way was the thing that saved our nation, and we saved our land. We are together.””

The Vietnam Experience

The Vietnam War was a conflict from 1 November 1955 to 30 April 1975 involving Cambodia, Laos, United States, and Vietnam.  From a political perspective, most focus by the public- and the period of most influence upon the direction of the public, was from 1964 when the number of members of the armed forces of the United States increased from less than 30,000 to more than 120,000 and then through 1973 with the withdrawal of the armed forces of the United States from Vietnam and the victory of the armed forces of the North Vietnamese/Viet Cong/PRG.

From Selective Service System (SSS): “From 1948 until 1973, during both peacetime and periods of conflict, men were drafted to fill vacancies in the armed forces which could not be filled through voluntary means.  Induction authority expired in 1973, but the Selective Service System remained in existence in “standby” to support the all-volunteer force in case of an emergency.  Registration was suspended early in 1975 and the Selective Service System entered into “deep standby”.”

There are officially 58,220 individuals listed as “U.S. military fatal casualties” of the Vietnam War.

Instructive to review the years in which the fatalities were ascribed- from four during the initial three years of the Vietnam War to 57,950 from 1964 to 1973 when the armed forces of the United States withdrew from Vietnam.

On 24 February 2022, the armed forces of the Russian Federation invaded and further invaded the territory of Ukraine in what Vladimir Putin, President of the Russian Federation (2000-2008 and 2012- ), defined as a Special Military Operation [SMO] then on 22 December 2022 he redefined as a war.  The initial invasion by the armed forces of the Russian Federation was in part from the territory of the Republic of Belarus.   

The war between the Russian Federation and Ukraine did not commence on 24 February 2022.  The roots began their trajectories on 20 February 2014 when the armed forces of the Russian Federation invaded the Crimean Peninsula and the area known as the Donbas Region (Donetsk Oblast and Luhansk Oblast).

From Media Reporting

“Ukraine has recently ramped up its drafting exercise with citizens taking desperate measures to escape forced military recruitment. Reports suggest that unwilling citizens resort to actions like changing into women’s clothes, performing sham marriages, bribing doctors to give a negative fitness report to avoid being forcefully inducted into the Army.  Earlier, Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU) announced it had blocked 26 Telegram channels that were allegedly helping people of military age avoid mobilization. The news came following a February 26 report in The Economist that said, “Ukraine has visibly stepped up mobilization activities in the first two months of this year. There have been reports of draft notices issued (and sometimes violently enforced) at military funerals in Lviv, checkpoints in Kharkiv, shopping centres in Kyiv, and on street corners in Odesa.”

As per the report, citizens are avoiding public spots with officials hunting for civilians to be recruited into the military. Locals communicate with each other through social media channels sharing information on where recruitment officers might be snooping.  In February, President Volodymyr Zelensky extended martial law and general-mobilisation legislation for the sixth time. But there have been big changes since December. Previously only members of Ukraine’s draft commission were allowed to issue notices, and only to home addresses. Now a wider group of officials can issue the two-part document, with no geographical limitation.  In the first phase of drafting most of the recruits were queuing up voluntarily. However, increasingly, the initial zest for fighting back against Russians has worn off, and people are no longer willing to go to the front to fight a war that extended for over a year now.” 

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