Letter From Kyiv: From The Window A Thunder; If There Was A Politburo; Modeling Errors; Where Is The Unity
Day Five since 5:00 am bombing of Kharkiv.
The daily 12:00 am first air raid siren for the day.
The daily 6:00 am second air raid siren for the day.
8:00 am curfew lifted.
9:15 am supermarkets open..
8:00 pm curfew.
UPDATE: Just after curfew began this evening, standing in front of window in room that faces the Dnieper River… Window vibrated, building vibrated, directly across river missile hits apartment complex, flash of orange and white light. A large projectile- or airborne. This is the first targeting of the area. Followed by additional building vibrations- felt while in the underground garage which is serving as bomb shelter. Additional security to building.
Not a cloud in the sky- bright blue. Cold today, about 30 degrees Fahrenheit.
Vehicles on the road.
People on streets- not many, but there are people.
Air raid sirens throughout the day.
Correction Request: Actors at the Screen Actors Guild (SAG) award ceremony properly referenced what is happening in Ukraine. They need to know that the name of the country is NOT “The Ukraine” it is “Ukraine.”
Returning from a meeting, visit a 7-Eleven-type store. An older woman with her husband shows a cheese with an expiration 2/28/22. In Ukrainian, asked if she should buy it, be concerned. Answer, in broken Russian, tortured Ukrainian, hand gestures, and head movements- confirmed that the cheese as good to purchase. The woman purchased it. Outside a supermarket- line formed one hour prior to opening. When opened, about ten customers were permitted and when they finished, the next group was permitted to enter.
The narrative is inaccurate that the government of the Russian Federation, and specifically President Vladimir Putin, is surprised by the ferocity of the response from governments and their respective heads of state and heads of government. Outcome modeling analysis has been ongoing for years not months or weeks or days.
This is not to suggest that there was or is now a cohesiveness, a unanimity within the government of the Russian Federation for the decisions relating to Ukraine and Belarus.
What outcome modeling analysis does is create a series of actions and responses to those actions, then responses to the responses, then responses to the responses of the responses, and so forth. This process then continues for each question to a depth of twelve to thirty layers.
What the government of the Russian Federation did not anticipate neither the collectivity, connectivity nor simultaneous coordination and implementation of decisions by both the public sector and the private sector. The expectation was for a staggered response- there does remain sanction carveouts for energy transactions- which provide the majority of revenues to the Russian Federation.
If the Russian Federation had in place a politburo and President Vladimir Putin was not head of state, but head of party as General Secretary, might he have received approval to attack Ukraine? Probably not as members of the politburo would have been influenced by varied constituencies- conservative, moderate, liberal, among others. Would he have been replaced if the politburo had authorized the attack upon Ukraine and then the results (both within Ukraine and outside of Ukraine against the Russian Federation) seen thus far? Yes, he would have as the Russian Federation, as an entity governed by a politburo in 1979, though with a Communist Party, would have learned from the experience of the U.S.S.R. in Afghanistan.
Ukraine will not receive an express lane to membership in the twenty-seven member European Union (EU). Likely, the paperwork will be processed promptly, but other countries have been in line and they have made commercial, economic, and political decisions towards obtaining EU membership.
From the EU: “These countries are in the process of 'transposing' (or integrating) EU legislation into national law: Albania, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Serbia, Turkey. Potential candidate countries do not yet fulfil the requirements for EU membership: Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo* (* This designation is without prejudice to positions on status, and is in line with UNSCR 1244/99 and the ICJ Opinion on the Kosovo declaration of independence.)”
From the EU: “Becoming a member of the EU is a complex procedure which does not happen overnight. Once an applicant country meets the conditions for membership, it must implement EU rules and regulations in all areas. Any country that satisfies the conditions for membership can apply. These conditions are known as the ‘Copenhagen criteria’ and include a free-market economy, a stable democracy and the rule of law, and the acceptance of all EU legislation, including of the euro. A country wishing to join the EU submits a membership application to the Council, which asks the Commission to assess the applicant’s ability to meet the Copenhagen criteria. If the Commission’s opinion is positive, the Council must then agree upon a negotiating mandate. Negotiations are then formally opened on a subject-by-subject basis. Due to the huge volume of EU rules and regulations each candidate country must adopt as national law, the negotiations take time to complete. The candidates are supported financially, administratively and technically during this pre-accession period.”
Fact Check Question: Is the government of the United States the largest or one of the largest? The Biden-Harris Administration (2021- ) should be able to coordinate statements- perhaps a bit more time editing prior to issuing media releases…
From United States Department of State on 27 February 2022: ”The United States is one of the largest humanitarian donors to Ukraine, and our humanitarian assistance now amounts to nearly $405 million to vulnerable communities since Russia invaded Ukraine eight years ago.” LINK
From USAID on 27 February 2022: ”The United States is the single largest donor of humanitarian assistance in Ukraine. Since the conflict began in 2014, the United States has provided nearly $405 million to vulnerable communities across Ukraine, including nearly $169 million from USAID and nearly $236 million from the Department of State.” LINK
Unresolved Issue: Normally, during a crisis, particularly one in which the survival of a country is in question, current political leadership invites, usually requests, former political leadership to join in a unified message- an optic of a joint television appearance, joint radio address. Surprisingly, current President Volodymyr Zelensky has not been seen with his predecessor former President Petro Poroshenko, although the former president has been an active presence in interviews and supporting decisions taken by the Zelensky Administration. Nothing is better, however, than a joint appearance to further diminish differences and provide additional adhesive for domestic messaging and, critically, for global messaging.
Yesterday, satellite images showed damage the hangar at the Hostomel Air Base in Ukraine where the world’s largest aircraft, AN-225, is stored. The six-engine aircraft is 84 meters long and has a wingspan of about 88 meters. It first flew in December 1988 and holds records for transporting the biggest commercial cargo. In the early 1990’s, traveled aboard it on one occasion. The sounds of the takeoff were similar to animal-like moaning- a lot of loud moaning. Next to co-piloting a four-engine WWII restored B-17 aircraft from New York to Ohio; in the co-pilot seat of a C-17 Globemaster for a portion of a journey from Italy, to Bosnia; and in the co-pilot seat of the Boeing modified 747-200 “Nightwatch” E-4 Advanced Airborne Command Post (AACP) for a portion of a journey over the Atlantic Ocean; traveling in the cockpit of the AN-225 was an exceptional experience.
The global media companies have again directed substantial resources to producing the promotion of their coverage of events relating to the invasion of Ukraine by the armed forces of the Russian Federation. Dramatic theme music; relentless commercials featuring images and videos of their hosts and correspondents. And whenever someone interviewed mentions kindly the coverage of the network- that material is featured in the marketing. Interview subjects are aware of the connectivity with praising the network and then a segment of their interview being repeatedly broadcast. Crises are good the financial performance of media companies.
