Led By China, India, Turkiye, 40% Of World’s Population Engaging With Russia Despite Sanctions. For Politicians Choices About Ukraine Like Waterboarding. Pollsters And Elections Matter.
40% Of World’s Population Engaging With Russian Federation.
China, India, And Turkiye Among Others.
Political And Commercial Waterboarding.
Politicians Advocate, Embrace, Accept Impact Of Sanctions Until Pollsters Say Otherwise.
Support By Politicians For Ukraine Will Not Be A Mutual Suicide Pact.
2023 And 2024 Election Preparations Impactful.
Country Population and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Ranking
People’s Republic of China: 1.425 billion (2nd largest GDP)
Republic of India: 1.418 billion (5th largest GDP)
Russian Federation: 144.7 million (11th largest GDP)
Islamic Republic of Iran: 88.5 million (21st largest GDP)
Republic of Turkiye: 85.3 million (19th largest GDP)
Republic of the Union of Myanmar: 55.2 million (73rd largest GDP)
Democratic People’s Republic of Korea: 26.0 million (estimate- 126th largest GDP)
Democratic Socialist Republic of Sri Lanka: 21.6 million (68th largest GDP)
Total Including Russia: 3.261 billion
Total Excluding Russia: 3.116 billion
World population: 7.987 billion
Including Russian Federation, 40.8% of world population represented by governments who continue to engage commercially, economically, and politically with the Russian Federation.
Excluding Russian Federation, 39.0% world population represented by governments who continue to engage commercially, economically, and politically with the Russian Federation.
Challenging for commercial, economic, and political sanctions against the Russian Federation to maintain country integrity and implementation longevity when nearing one-half of the world’s population is represented by governments who chose to maintain direct and or indirect engagement with the Russian Federation.
The countries India (often referred to as the “world’s largest democracy”) and Turkiye (a member of the thirty country North Atlantic Treaty Organization, NATO) whose territory straddles the continents of Europe and Asia, and who controls access through the Bosporus Strait to the Black Sea, have since 24 February 2022 demonstrably increased their imports from the Russian Federation and exports to the Russian Federation.
The Narendra Damodardas Modi Administration in New Delhi, India, may increase its compliance with selected sanctions implemented by the United States and Brussels, Belgium-based twenty-seven (27) member country European Union (EU). The Recep Tayyip Erdogan Administration in Ankara, Turkiye, is unlikely to expand compliance with sanctions implemented by the United States and EU, even as the country is a member of NATO. Absent an extinction-level political event, the government of Turkiye will continue to expand its commercial, economic, political and military engagement with the government of the Russian Federation and with companies located within the Russian Federation. For Joseph Biden, President of the United States, sanctioning India-based companies, and further sanctioning Turkiye-based companies will be problematic as the Biden-[Kamala] Harris Administration seeks cooperation with both countries for issues not related to the Russian Federation or Ukraine.
The next general election in Turkiye is on 23 June 2023 and President Erdogan is seeking a third term. The next direct general election in India is expected by May 2024 for the 543 members of the 18th Lok Sobha (lower house of India’s bicameral Parliament). The next general election in the United Kingdom will be by May 2024. The next general election in the United States is 8 November 2022 (United States Congress) and 5 November 2024 (Presidential). The next general election in Ukraine is 21 July 2024 (Parliament) and 31 March 2024 (Presidential).
The phrase “all politics is local” has its United States-origin dating to 1932. Ninety years onward, the phrase captures still how politicians, those elected and appointed, view the process which maintains their power.
Historical Note: Winston Churchill, Prime Minister of the United Kingdom (England, Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland) led the country through World War II (September 1939 to May 1945 in Europe and September 1945 in Asia), serving from May 1940 to July 1945 when his Conservative Party lost a general election primarily for reasons relating to the economy and foreign policy. Months prior to the general election, his approval rating was 83%. He returned as Prime Minister from October 1951 to April 1955.
Are those governments which choose to continue (and/or expand) commercial, economic, and political engagement with the government of the Russian Federation since 22 February 2022 reflecting the opinion of their respective populations (more accurately, those who vote) or are they imposing their opinion upon their respective populations? Are heads of state and heads of government following or leading, reflecting or deflecting, moderating, or enhancing? Is there a disconnection between government and citizens?
Who then has an essential role to influence what a government does relating to its commercial, economic, and political relationship with the government of the Russian Federation? Pollsters.
The group that politicians deny employing and deny listening to as a means of identifying issues of importance to an electorate and how that importance might be determinate for policy decisions. Some of the questions pollsters have asked in countries since 22 February 2022:
What is more important- punishing Vladimir Putin, President of the Russian Federation, or helping Ukraine?
How much are you willing to suffer economically (higher inflation, higher energy prices, higher food prices, higher interest rates, higher credit card interest rates) so that the armed forces of the Russian Federation have returned to the territorial boundaries of Ukraine which existed prior to 2014?
Should the United States and NATO-member countries provide the armed forces of Ukraine with the equipment that they believe the armed forces of Ukraine needs or what the armed forces of Ukraine wants? The United States and NATO have focused upon how they define needs rather than how Ukraine defines wants particularly in terms of timing of deliveries.
For politicians, determining their commercial, economic, military, and political level of support to Ukraine is not dissimilar to waterboarding- political and commercial versions. With cloth covering a person’s face and then pouring water through the cloth into their mouth until they are compliant- answer whatever question they have been asked.
For politicians, waterboarding is the level of economic suffering are they prepared require of those who voted for them, voted against them, and did not vote at all- before the politicians say enough?
What, then are politicians throughout the EU, United States, and other countries which have implemented commercial, economic, and political sanctions upon the government of the Russian Federation wishing for this Christmas? A fall 2022 and winter 2022/2023 and spring 2023 of mild temperatures.
Publicly and privately, absent the armed forces of Ukraine delivering an ever-quickening and consistent weakening of positions held within the territory of Ukraine by the armed forces of the Russian Federation resulting in retreat into the territory of the Russian Federation, politicians in the United States, EU, and NATO want Ukraine-Russian Federation military engagements to have fewer casualties and return to the landscape prior to 24 February 2022. Why? Easier to navigate (influence) domestically and easier to craft economic and commercial policies which result in less pain for those who vote and to those who influence those who vote.
Volodymyr Zelensky, President of Ukraine, recently shared “We will take back Crimea- it is our territory. We will do this in any way which we decide. We will decide this by ourselves, without consultation with any other country in the world… It all began with Crimea, and it will end with Crimea. And this is true, and I believe in it 100%, that to overcome terror, to return guarantees and security to our region, to Europe, to the whole world, it is necessary to gain victory in the fight against Russian aggression. It is necessary to liberate Crimea from occupation. This will be the resuscitation of world law and order.”
While rhetorically an inspiring statement, the statement is nonetheless inaccurate. Members of the armed forces of Ukraine are directly engaging (and often heroically) members of the armed forces of the Russian Federation. Reasons for successes on the battlefields in Ukraine are demonstrably due in part to the training, intelligence (including analytics, satellite, and signals), support, and equipment delivered since 2014 and continuing to be delivered from 22 February 2022 to Ukraine by members of NATO and then used by members of the armed forces of Ukraine.
Absent that support, the territorial landscape in Ukraine today would likely be different. For an effort to reclaim the Crimea Peninsula from the government of the Russian Federation, the government of Ukraine must consult with and accept guidance from those countries who are providing military support and financial support to Ukraine.
