Perhaps He Should Not Have Said It. Important That He Did. Ukraine Foreign Minister On Self-Financing “Frozen Conflict” Because Other Country Taxpayers Will Not Do So And Should Not Do So.
Perhaps He Should Not Have Said It. Yet, Important That He Did.
Statement Reflects Reality There Will Unlikely Be No More US$113.1 Billion From Taxpayers In The United States To The Government Of Ukraine
United States Transition From Donations, Gifts, And Grants To Loans To Be Repaid. EU Has Made Majority Of Its Support For Ukraine As Loans To Be Repaid. Why Loans Good For EU And Bad For United States?
Other Country Sources Of Support Lessened Absent Substantial And Permanent Territorial Gains
Government Of Ukraine Should Publicly Declare No Further Interest In Borrowing By United States Taxpayers. Previous Funds Should Transition To Loans.
Dmytro Kuleba, Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine (2020-), shared that if offensives commenced in June 2023 succeed in expelling the armed forces of the Russian Federation from the territory of Ukraine, “It will be the last. If not, there will be more. If our weapons supplies get cut off, Ukraine will just shift to lower intensity war.”
On 24 February 2022, the armed forces of the Russian Federation invaded and further invaded the territory of Ukraine in what Vladimir Putin, President of the Russian Federation (2000-2008 and 2012- ), defined as a Special Military Operation [SMO] then on 22 December 2022 he redefined as a war. The initial invasion of Ukraine by the armed forces of the Russian Federation was in part from the territory of Belarus.
The war between the Russian Federation and Ukraine did not commence on 24 February 2022. The roots began their trajectories on 20 February 2014 when the armed forces of the Russian Federation invaded the Crimean Peninsula and the area known as the Donbas Region (Donetsk Oblast and Luhansk Oblast).
Minister Kuleba has provided an important timeline- both militarily and politically, to heads of state and heads of government amongst those countries who have collectively provided since 24 February 2023 more than US$200 billion in commercial, economic, financial, humanitarian, military, and political support to the government of Ukraine- with more than US$113.1 billion in borrowing from taxpayers in the United States allocated in 2022 by the United States Congress with distribution in 2022, 2023, and 2024.
Significant to note that the twenty-seven member countries of the Brussels, Belgium-based European Union (EU) have focused the structure of their assistance to the government of Ukraine in the form of loans to be repaid. The government of Ukraine applied for EU membership in February 2022 and was granted EU candidate status in June 2022.
An increasing number of members of the United States Congress (435-member House of Representatives and 100-member Senate) are questioning both the amount of taxpayer borrowing to support the government of Ukraine and the rationale for the Biden-Harris Administration (2021- ) preference for donations, gifts, and grants rather than loans to be repaid- as has the EU which collectively has far more to gain from commercial, economic, and financial connectivity with the government of Ukraine than does the government of the United States.
If the government of Volodymyr Zelensky, President of Ukraine (2019- ), is prepared to self-finance a continuing military conflict with the armed forces of the Russian Federation, then these statements do have expiration dates:
“As Long As It Takes” from Joseph Biden, 46th President of the United States (2021- )
“As Long As Is Necessary” from Olaf Scholz, 35th Chancellor of the Federal Republic of Germany (2021- )
“Until You Are Victorious” from James Cleverly, Secretary of State of the United Kingdom (England, Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland) for Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Affairs (2022- )
Absent meaningful, consistent, and non-transitory real estate gains by the armed forces of Ukraine by October 2023, governments in countries will find challenging to maintain or increase taxpayer funding for the benefit of the government of Ukraine.
Should the armed forces of the Russian Federation be successful in targeting, disabling, and destroying military equipment provided by taxpayers in thirty-one member countries of the Brussels, Belgium-based North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), twenty-seven member countries of the Brussels, Belgium-based European Union (EU), and other countries, along with an absence of real estate gains by the armed forces of Ukraine, then there will be a reduction of taxpayer support to the government of Ukraine.
North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO): United States, United Kingdom, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, Finland, France, Iceland, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Albania, Lithuania, Bulgaria, Montenegro, Croatia, Czech Republic, Poland, Estonia, Romania, Germany, Slovakia, Greece, Slovenia, Hungary, Spain, Turkiye, Latvia, and North Macedonia. The Kingdom of Sweden awaits approval from the governments of the Republic of Hungary and the Republic of Turkiye.
European Union (EU): Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, and Sweden.
There will be minimal political appetite from elected and appointed country leadership to direct taxpayer funds from domestic priorities to the government of Ukraine when the Russian Federation-Ukraine war again resembles the military, political, and territorial landscape as existed from 20 February 2014 to 23 February 2022.
If the Russian Federation-Ukraine war becomes again defined as a “frozen conflict” then there is no incentive for heads of state and heads of government in their countries to redirect taxpayer funds from domestic focuses into a military landscape which shows little incentive, little expectation of defrosting.
Biden 2024 Budget Proposal Implies Substantial Resources For Ukraine Not Required Beyond 2023. US$113.1 Billion Appropriated In 2022. US$8.922 Billion For 2024? Some 2022 Funds Not Yet Spent.
In 2022, the 117th United States Congress appropriated US$113.1 billion for Ukraine with those funds to be disbursed from 2022 through 2026 (or earlier as ordered equipment becomes available for delivery). The 117th United States Congress (House of Representatives and Senate) were controlled by the Democratic Party. The 118th United States Congress has a House of Representatives controlled by the Republican Party.
The White House proposes to spend US$842 billion in Fiscal Year 2024 for the United States Department of Defense (DOD) representing an increase of 3.2% (absent accounting for inflation) from Fiscal Year 2023. The budget proposal includes funding for Ukraine- although not specifying whether the proposed funding is military-related or economic-related.
“Supports Ukraine, European Allies, and Partners. The Budget provides over $6 billion to support Ukraine, the United States’ strong alliance with the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), and other European partner states by prioritizing funding to enhance the capabilities and readiness of United States, allied, and partner forces in the face of continued Russian aggression.”
“In addition, the Budget requests $753 million for Ukraine to continue to counter Russian malign influence and to meet emerging needs related to security, energy, cybersecurity, disinformation, macroeconomic stabilization, and civil society resilience.”
“To assist Ukraine and manage the aftershocks of Putin’s invasion, the request includes 469 million to bolster the economy and ensure the continuity of government services, strengthen their energy infrastructure and cyber security, and ultimately promote the resilience of the Ukrainian people.”
“This request includes $1.7 billion that will help Ukraine win the war and lay the reform and recovery foundation for winning the peace and help other partners impacted by the war stabilize their economies and prepare for recovery.”