Legacy Of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s 2023 G20 Leaders’ Summit In New Delhi, India (Bharat)?  Permanently Fracturing The Status Quo. 

Power Pendulum Shifted. 

“Bali Was Bali, Delhi Is Delhi” Reflects Difference One Year Can Make In Terms Of How Perceptions About Issues May Transition. 

A Disappointing Anecdote: Some Members And Guests Of The G20 Have Departed Or Will Depart Prior To The Final Session… The Title Of The Final Session?  “The Future” 

Adding 55-Country African Union (AU) To G20 Membership Provides Increased Relevance For G20, But Will Also Make Consensus (Unanimity) More Challenging.  The European Union (EU) Is Having Issues Forging Consensus With Its Current Twenty-Seven (27) Members- And Plans To Expand Its Membership. 

Importance Of India Inviting United Arab Emirates (UAE) As Guest Of G20 Leaders’ Summit To Expand Arab Representation.  Saudi Arabia Is Member Of G20 And Joining BRICS In 2024, Along With United Arab Emirates. 

G20 Days Are Numbered… Will See G25 Or G30 By 2026.

G7 Days Are Numbered Too… Can The Group Be Truly Relevant- And Should The Group Be Truly Relevant Absent China And India- The World’s Two Largest By Population?

“Tough And Ruthless” Negotiations About Ukraine.  Including Ukraine Or Excluding Ukraine From The G20 Leader’s Summit Declaration Not The Measure Of Success Or Failure For The G20 Leaders’ Summit.

• Nearing Nineteen Months For The Russian Federation-Ukraine War, And Some Government Positions Have Hardened, Some Have Transitioned, Some Continue To Transition.  And, Some Just Don’t Want To Continue To Have It Dominate Every Conversation.

Hardest Working Head Of State? President Erdogan Of Turkiye.  With The Early Completion Of G20 Leaders’ Summit Declaration Which Included Mention Of The Importance Of The Black Sea Grain Initiative (BSGI), President Erdogan Gains A Bit More Time In New Delhi To Discuss It With Colleagues And Further Craft His Strategy For The United Nations General Assembly (UNGA).

The 2023 G20 Leaders’ Summit has the distinction as the most diverse group of attendees- not only with the addition of the fifty-five (55) member Addis Ababa, Ethiopia-based African Union (AU), but with a meaningful increase for the Muslim community- represented by Egypt, Indonesia, Saudi Arabia, Turkiye, and United Arab Emirates.

There are, however, consequences to diversity.  While providing additional- and important perspectives, the larger diversities within a group, the more a challenge not only to construct unanimity (consensus), but to maintain it.  And, the larger diversities within a group, the inherent tendencies to gravitate towards compromise- since each member has a veto.  For the 2023 G20 Leaders’ Summit Declaration, unanimity was possible precisely because the words in the thirty-seven (37) page document are neither binding nor enforceable.  It does not demand or obligate any head of state or head of government do to anything.  It does not obligate any country to do anything.  The words feel good to some.  The words are tolerant to others.  The words do not matter to a few.

Similar to the July 2023 Ukraine Security Guarantees as outlined at the July 2023 NATO Summit in Vilnius, Lithuania, despite its presentation by some NATO members and by the government of Ukraine as “obligations” by signatories, the words are not binding and permit each signer to interpret how it may do whatever it may do.  The same as for Article Five of the NATO Charter- it does not, despite presentation otherwise, require any member to engage with its armed forces in defense of another:

• “The Parties agree that an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all and consequently they agree that, if such an armed attack occurs, each of them, in exercise of the right of individual or collective self-defence recognized by Article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations, will assist the Party or Parties so attacked by taking forthwith, individually and in concert with the other Parties, such action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force, to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area.  Any such armed attack and all measures taken as a result thereof shall immediately be reported to the Security Council. Such measures shall be terminated when the Security Council has taken the measures necessary to restore and maintain international peace and security.”

The many months-long exercise managed by the “sherpas” from each delegation to construct the 2023 G20 Leaders’ Summit Declaration does represent an example of discipline to construct text, even if it is aspirational and inspirational.  It was completed- and was completed ahead of what had been an anticipated schedule- after the conclusion of the 2023 G20 Leaders’ Summit.

As of 1 December 2023, when Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, president of the Federative Republic of Brazil (2023- ), accepts the one-year leadership of the G20, he will be further tested as governments construct alliances and coalitions for one issue which may be different from alliances and coalitions for other issues.

India, the world’s largest country by population, is hosting the 2023 G20 Leaders’s Summit.  Brazil, the world’s seventh-largest country by population, is hosting the 2024 G20 Leaders’ Summit.  South Africa, the world’s twenty-fourth largest country by population, is hosting the 2025 G20 Leaders’ Summit.  Disregarding the meaning of this trajectory will be perilous for governments and groups of governments. 

• The United States, third-largest country by population, is hosting the 2026 G20 Leaders’ Summit. 

This means for the next three years the agenda of the G20 will be crafted by like-minded leadership representing interests of the “Global South” rather interests of the “Global North” or, more accurately, a member of the global establishment.  An awful lot of issues can come to creation in three years. 

President Lula da Silva will preside at the G20 Leaders’s Summit in Rio de Janeiro.  With an election scheduled for 2024, unknown if Cyril Ramaphosa, President of the Republic of South Africa (2018- ), will preside at the 2025 G20 Leaders’ Summit at a location not yet announced.

As has India this year, each of the next two G20 Leaders’ Summit host countries will to the indigestion of members of the G7 and some members of the G20- particularly those who are members of the G7, have guest countries invited who may be surprising and perhaps unappreciated.

There will be no return.  The country club-style of developed nations, whether in the form of the G7, G20, or EU is no longer exclusive and can no longer singularly craft and then force the implementation of agendas for smaller developed; small, medium, and large developing; and small, medium, and large least developed countries (LDC).  While the economic weight of the members of the G7, G20, and EU will remain collectively to represent the majority of both population and Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the political pendulum will shift further towards those countries outside of the G7, G20, and EU.  The driving factors will be naturally-occurring and unnaturally-occurring commercial, economic, financial, humanitarian, military, and political instability which will test further bilateral relationships and multilateral relationships.    

25% of BRICS (Brazil, Russian Federation, India, China, South Africa) members in G20.  All five members of BRICS are members of the twenty-member G20.  NOTE: As of January 2024, Saudi Arabia will be a member of BRICS, so there will be six members of the then twelve-member BRICS who are also members of the G20.  As of January 2024, 30% of BRICS members will be in the G20.  As of January 2024, new BRICS members are Argentina, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and United Arab Emirates. 

• (G7): (2014-Present) includes Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, United Kingdom, and United States. The Russian Federation was excluded in 2014 due to its military actions on the Crimean Peninsula.

• G20: Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, Mexico, ​Republic of Korea​,​ Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, ​​​Turkiye, United Kingdom, United States and European Union (EU)​.

• EU: Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, and Sweden.

• BRICS: Brazil, Russian Federation, India, China, South Africa.  NOTE: Beginning January 2024, BRICS will expand to include Argentina, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia.  Currently, BRICS represents approximately 42% of the world’s population and approximately 23% of the world’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

• NATO: United States, United Kingdom, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, Finland, France, Iceland, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Albania, Lithuania, Bulgaria, Montenegro, Croatia, Czech Republic, Poland, Estonia, Romania, Germany, Slovakia, Greece, Slovenia, Hungary, Spain, Turkiye, Latvia, and North Macedonia.  The 600-member Grand National Assembly of the Republic of Turkiye is expected to approve in September 2023 the ascension of the Kingdom of Sweden- which has no border with the Russian Federation.  The 199-member National Assembly of Hungary (Country Assembly) has yet to approve the ascension of the Kingdom of Sweden.  \

LINK TO COMPLETE ANALYSIS IN PDF FORMAT