Is SPIEF 2025 In Russia Benefiting From Expectations Of War With Ukraine Ending And Resurrection Of Relationship With United States? Advance Hotel And Train Reservations A Barometer?
Is SPIEF 2025 In Russia Benefiting From Expectations Of War With Ukraine Ending And Resurrection Of Relationship With United States?
Advance Hotel And Train Reservations A Barometer?
Comments From Trump, Rubio, Dmitriev
Witnessing Political Climate Change?
Could Elon Musk Or Steven Witkoff Speak At SPIEF 2025?
Starlink, Tesla Vehicle (Cybertruck), Telsa Charging Station, Installed At U.S. Embassy In Moscow? SpaceX On Display At SPIEF?
Might Trump-Vance Administration Officials Participate In SPIEF 2025?
From 18 June 2025 to 21 June 2025, the government of the Russian Federation will host the annual St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF).
Thousands of government officials, company representatives, and journalists assemble in a state-of-the-art facility near the Pulkovo Airport on the outskirts of St. Petersburg.
The SPIEF displays by Russian Federation-based companies, regional administrations throughout the Russian Federation, and Russian Federation-based media companies are always visually spectacular. Delegations (and their omnipresent security retinues, some for necessity and some for show- a show of commercial testosterone). Motorcades jostle for position. Red lights and blue lights. Everyone encounters traffic seizures and multi-layer security procedures which can shift a one-hour endeavor to three hours.
Each year, Vladimir Putin, President of the Russian Federation (2000-2008 and 2012- ), addresses the participants.
Since 24 February 2022, the annual global participation at SPIEF has decreased. The countries represented were smaller and less economically impactful and the company executives were from smaller companies, lower in seniority, and fewer in number.
Where the gathering was a traditional magnet for heads of state, heads of government, and leadership of the largest corporations from throughout the world, SPIEF 2022, SPIEF 2023, and SPIEF 2024 reflected continued deterioration from its pre-2022 loftiness.
On 24 February 2022, the armed forces of the Russian Federation invaded and further invaded the territory of Ukraine in what President Putin defined as a Special Military Operation [SMO] then on 22 December 2022 he redefined as a war. The initial invasion of Ukraine by the armed forces of the Russian Federation was in part from the territory of Belarus.
The war between the Russian Federation and Ukraine did not commence on 24 February 2022. The roots began their trajectories on 20 February 2014 when the armed forces of the Russian Federation invaded the Crimean Peninsula and the area known as the Donbas Region (Donetsk Oblast and Luhansk Oblast).
Sanctions made challenging traveling to and within the Russian Federation. Sanctions made challenging payments as global financial services made credit cards and debit cards inoperable. Sanctions made challenging companies wanting to demonstrate connectivity with the public sector and private sector in the Russian Federation.
There are less than one hundred (100) days until the opening of SPIEF 2025 and anything could happen within the United States- Russian Federation commercial, economic, financial, military, political construct.
While there remains a bilateral frost, recent statements by officials in Washington DC and in Moscow may signal the commercial and political version of climate change.
Donald Trump, 47th President of the United States (2025-2029), shared he was “trying to do some economic development deals” with the government of the Russian Federation and Marco Rubio, United States Secretary of State (2025- ), shared about “potentially historic economic partnerships” and “extraordinary opportunities” which could materialize after a resolution of the Russian Federation-Ukraine war.
Mr. Kirill Dmitriev, Chief Executive Officer of the Russian Direct Investment Fund (RDIF) shared an expectation that “a number of American companies will return to the Russian market as early as in the second quarter of the year.” The First Quarter of 2025 is January, February, March. The Second Quarter is April, May, June.
If senior-level (C-Suite) executives from United States-based globally-significant companies and non-United States-based globally-significant companies with a substantial and visible presence in the United States participate in SPIEF 2025, that would be a seismic shift in the bilateral political tectonic plates in Washington DC and in Moscow.
If executives do participate, likely because of a firm belief the Trump-Vance Administration will “have their back” should there be criticism- and there will be criticism.
Rather than exhibiting at SPIEF, a C-Suite executive might participate in one of the panel discussions. A representative of the Trump-Vance Administration might participate in a panel discussion- Mr. Steven Witkoff, United States Envoy to the Middle East, who has an expanded portfolio including the Russian Federation-Ukraine war, and has met twice in 2025 with Vladimir Putin, President of the Russian Federation (2000-2008 and 2012- ), and has a real estate background, might be a logical choice. The United States Embassy may send a delegation to “test the waters and kick the tires” with a walk-through by the United States Ambassador to the Russian Federation.
Coincidence Or Forecast? The comments by Mr. Dmitriev about the second quarter in 2025 would include the June dates for SPIEF 2025?
SPIEF 2025 may be a barometer of change if train seat reservations for the routes Moscow to St. Petersburg and St. Petersburg to Moscow along with hotel reservations are an accurate measurement.
In 2024, seats on all trains and in call classes of service were available, though sparse, on the routes from 16 June 2024 through 21 June 2024.
The key metric was the ninety-day (90) mark when Sapsan train tickets became available. This year, as in previous years, many participants will travel to St. Petersburg on 17 June 2025 and 18 June 2025.
For 17 June 2025 and 18 June 2025, seats on most of the slower trains (and overnight trains) in most classes of service are nearly sold-out. Premium Seating and Business Class seating on Sapsan is nearly sold-out.
The Valero RUS EVS (known as Sapsan) high speed train (3 hours 48 minutes) has thirteen trains per day on the route. First Class Seating and Premium Business Seating at pricing up to US$361.82 per person for 2x1 seating, amenity kits (including slippers), meals, beverages (including champagne). Departure and Arrival Lounge access. Crews in stylish apparel. Basically, equating to an airline First Class and Business Class.
Hotels are reporting early reservations and robust reservation requests relating to SPIEF 2025. During SPIEF 20254, hotels implement minimum night requirements and increase substantially room rates. This practice is continuing for SPIEF 2025.
Media reporting certainly creates an optic suggesting a reconnection of all or some commercial, diplomatic, economic, financial, political, and social engagement between the public sector and private sector of the United States and the public and private sector of the Russian Federation.
TASS: (19 February 2025): The Russian Direct Investment Fund (RDIF) expects a number of US companies to return to the Russian market in the second quarter of 2025, RDIF CEO Kirill Dmitriev told TASS. "RDIF expects that a number of American companies will return to the Russian market as early as in the second quarter of the year. However, the return process won’t be easy for US companies as many niches are already occupied by others," he pointed out. Dmitriev said on Tuesday that US businesses had lost over $300 bln after leaving Russia. According to data provided by the RDIF head, the majority of losses occurred in the IT and media sector ($123 bln). Consumer sector and health companies lost $94 bln, followed by financial companies ($71 bln), industries ($26 bln) and the energy sector ($10 bln). The total losses that US businesses suffered stand at about $324 bln.”
Bloomberg (13 March 2025): Investors are quietly betting that Trump’s overtures to Moscow for a deal to end the war in Ukraine will eventually translate into Russia’s return to the global financial markets, with deeply discounted securities soaring in value if sanctions imposed after the 2022 invasion are lifted. At stake in the gamble on Russia’s rehabilitation are hundreds of billions of dollars in trade and investment opportunities, while commodities companies that avoided sanctions are eager to diversify away from China. Still, enormous hurdles stand in the way of Russia coming in from the cold.
Bloomberg (13 March 2025): The US is exploring ways to work with Gazprom on global projects, Russian and European officials say. A partnership with the Russian energy giant would mark a step toward even closer ties with the Kremlin at a time when Trump has been trying to force Ukraine into a peace deal. European assessments suggest there have been contacts between US and Russian representatives on the issue, but it’s not clear who’s leading the conversations. Putin alluded to potential US-Russia energy cooperation on Thursday, telling reporters it could pave the way for restoration of supplies to Europe. European gas futures dropped as much as 4.5% after his comments.
Telegraph (18 March 2025): Kirill Dmitriev, Vladimir Putin’s special envoy, was the first Moscow official to comment on the Russian leader and Donald Trump’s phone call, calling it a “historic” moment. Mr Dmitriev is the CEO of the Russian Direct Investment Fund (RDIF) and one of the key negotiators involved in the Russia-US talks in Saudi Arabia last month. Earlier today, he said he would meet with Tesla chief Elon Musk “soon” to discuss technological development and the “future of humanity”. According to Mr Dmitriev, Russia is seeking cooperation with Musk and his SpaceX company to develop Russia’s space agency, Roscosmos, and state-run nuclear energy company Rosatom. Musk has not yet commented on the potential meeting.
Kyiv Independent (20 March 2025): Russia hasn't received requests from foreign companies seeking to return, Medvedev says. “No one has officially applied yet. So, they are informally probing the ground,” Dmitry Medvedev, deputy chairman of Russia's Security Council, claimed. Moscow has not received official requests from foreign companies seeking to return to Russia after exiting due to the Russia-Ukraine war and sanctions, Dmitry Medvedev, the deputy chairman of Russia's Security Council and former president, told state-owned news agency TASS on March 20. “No one has officially applied yet. So, they are informally probing the ground,” Medvedev claimed.
His statement follows Russian President Vladimir Putin’s directive to the Cabinet of Ministers to prepare for the return of Western companies, emphasizing that Russian firms should have "certain advantages" over those re-entering the market. The decision comes as relations between Russia and the U.S. show signs of rapprochement. The Kremlin said on March 18 that U.S. President Donald Trump and Putin are developing "mutually beneficial cooperation" in several areas as part of efforts to normalize relations between the two countries. Since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, hundreds of Western companies have withdrawn from the Russian market, unwilling to contribute to the country's economy or war effort. According to the Kyiv School of Economics Institute, 472 foreign firms have fully exited, while another 1,360 have scaled down their operations.
Medvedev insisted that Russia did not force foreign companies out, claiming they left "under pressure from their governments" and "out of fear." The former president warned that any firms looking to return should expect "a separate conversation" and that those who stay out permanently are of no concern to Moscow. Despite intensified diplomatic contacts between Washington and Moscow over the war in Ukraine, no major Western companies have publicly indicated plans to return to Russia. The Kremlin has made it difficult for departing businesses by requiring government approval, imposing a mandatory 50% discount on asset sales, and enforcing a 10% "exit tax." Russian authorities have also seized assets from subsidiaries of foreign companies that continued operating in the country. These restrictions are widely viewed as retaliation for Western sanctions, including the freezing of approximately $300 billion in Russian central bank assets. While some companies have found ways to continue limited operations in Russia through intermediaries or licensing agreements, large-scale reentry remains unlikely under current geopolitical conditions.
