How Many Of Thirteen Candidates (Announced/ Potential- Likely More) For The Republican Party 2024 Presidential Nomination Will Visit Kyiv, Ukraine? The First Expected In April 2023.
How Many Of The Thirteen Candidates (Announced And Potential- And There Will Likely Be More) For The Republican Party 2024 Presidential Nomination Will Visit Kyiv, Ukraine?
One Thus Far Expected…
Will Two Who Oppose Biden-Harris Administration Support For Ukraine Shift Others To Their Positions Or Will Others Shift The Two To Their Positions?
Will Zelensky Administration Attempt To Influence Republican Party Presidential Nomination Process? It Will Want To. Can’t Control Itself. Should Embrace Caution And Let Republican Party Sort It Out. Check Laws One And Three:
Sir Isaac Newton’s Principia Mathematica Philosophiae Naturalis (1686) has connectivity to politics… The three laws: “In the first law, an object will not change its motion unless a force acts on it. In the second law, the force on an object is equal to its mass times its acceleration. In the third law, when two objects interact, they apply forces to each other of equal magnitude and opposite direction.”
What changes the political calculus? If the armed forces of Ukraine enhance substantially and with permanence the integrity of its territorial control of Ukraine prior to August 2024. The armed forces of Ukraine are expected to commence offensives in May 2023 against the armed forces of the Russian Federation. The effectiveness of the offensives will be determined by the quantity and quality of military equipment sourced from outside of Ukraine and delivered to Ukraine, particularly by members of the thirty country Brussels, Belgium-based North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), and the ability of members of the armed forces of Ukraine to use effectively the military equipment. Helpful too, if the [Volodymyr] Zelensky Administration (2019- ) in Kyiv were to lessen or forgo requests for continued financial assistance.
On 24 February 2022, the armed forces of the Russian Federation invaded and further invaded the territory of Ukraine in what Vladimir Putin, President of the Russian Federation (2000-2008 and 2012- ), defined as a Special Military Operation [SMO] then on 22 December 2022 he redefined as a war. The initial invasion by the armed forces of the Russian Federation was in part from the territory of the Republic of Belarus.
The war between the Russian Federation and Ukraine did not commence on 24 February 2022. The roots began their trajectories on 20 February 2014 when the armed forces of the Russian Federation invaded the Crimean Peninsula and the area known as the Donbas Region (Donetsk Oblast and Luhansk Oblast).
The significance to the Republican Party (GOP- “Grand Old Party”) of United States taxpayer support for Ukraine, which since 24 February 2022 exceeds US$113 billion (some of which has yet to be disbursed) and to which the Biden-Harris Administration (2021- ) is expected to seek an additional US$50+ billion in appropriations by the 118th United States Congress in 2023, will become more evident, and likely more divisive, during the next months as the Republican Party commences its search for a 2024 nominee for President of the United States. For Fiscal Year 2024, the Biden-Harris Administration is seeking US$8.922 billion for the government of Ukraine.
The Washington, DC-based Republican National Committee (RNC) has scheduled the first presidential primary debate for August 2023 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. The RNC is planning for ten to twelve debates prior to its national convention in August 2024. The Presidential Election is on Tuesday, 5 November 2024.
During the next six months, potential candidates will transition from “thinking about it” to formally declaring their candidacies. One timeline factor is how an individual ranks in state and national polling determines eligibility for participation in debates.
The first Republican Party nominating event is 5 February 2024 (caucus) in the State of Iowa, followed by 13 February 2024 (primary) in the State of New Hampshire, and 27 February 2024 (primary) in the State of Michigan.
Announced Candidates (with most recently-held offices)
Nikki Haley, Permanent Representative of the United States to the United Nations (2017-2018), Governor of the State of South Carolina (2011-2017)
Donald Trump, 45th President of the United States (2017-2021), Owner- The Trump Organization (1999- )
Vivek Ramaswamy, Executive Chairman, Strive Asset Management (2022- ), Chief Executive Officer, Roivant Sciences (2014-2021)
Considering (with most recently-held offices)
Greg Abbott, Governor of the State of Texas (2015- ), Attorney General of Texas (2002-1015)
Chris Christie, Governor of the State of New Jersey (2010-2018), United States Attorney for the District of New Jersey (2010-2018)
Ron DeSantis, Governor of the State of Florida (2019- ), United States House of Representatives (2013-2018)
Asa Hutchinson, Governor of the State of Arkansas (2015-2023), Under Secretary of Homeland Security for Border and Transportation Security (2003-2005)
Brian Kemp, Governor of the State of Georgia (2019- ), Secretary of State of Georgia (2010-2018)
Mike Pence, Vice President of the United States (2017-2021), Governor of the State of Indiana (2013-2017)
Mike Pompeo, United States Secretary of State (2018-2021), Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (2017-2018)
Tim Scott, United States Senator from State of South Carolina (2013- ), United States House of Representatives (2011-2013)
Chris Sununu, Governor of the State of New Hampshire (2017- ), New Hampshire Executive Council (2011-2017)
Glenn Youngkin, Governor of the Commonwealth of Virginia (2022- ), Co-CEO of Carlyle Group (1995-2020)
Neither former President Trump nor Governor DeSantis are aligned with the perspective of Mrs. Haley and Messrs. Christie, Pence, Pompeo, Scott, and others. A majority of forty-nine members of the Republican Caucus of the 100-member United States Senate, including Mitch McConnell (R- Kentucky), the Minority Leader, support the provision of taxpayer borrowed resources to the government of Ukraine.
Mr. Pompeo is scheduled to participate in a delegation scheduled to visit Kyiv, Ukraine, in April 2023.
Governor DeSantis response to questionnaire provided by New York, New York-based Fox News (13 March 2023):
“While the U.S. has many vital national interests – securing our borders, addressing the crisis of readiness within our military, achieving energy security and independence, and checking the economic, cultural, and military power of the Chinese Communist Party – becoming further entangled in a territorial dispute between Ukraine and Russia is not one of them.
The Biden administration’s virtual “blank check” funding of this conflict for “as long as it takes,” without any defined objectives or accountability, distracts from our country’s most pressing challenges. Without question, peace should be the objective.
The U.S. should not provide assistance that could require the deployment of American troops or enable Ukraine to engage in offensive operations beyond its borders. F-16s and long-range missiles should therefore be off the table. These moves would risk explicitly drawing the United States into the conflict and drawing us closer to a hot war between the world’s two largest nuclear powers. That risk is unacceptable.
A policy of “regime change” in Russia (no doubt popular among the DC foreign policy interventionists) would greatly increase the stakes of the conflict, making the use of nuclear weapons more likely. Such a policy would neither stop the death and destruction of the war, nor produce a pro-American, Madisonian constitutionalist in the Kremlin. History indicates that Putin’s successor, in this hypothetical, would likely be even more ruthless. The costs to achieve such a dubious outcome could become astronomical.
The Biden administration’s policies have driven Russia into a de facto alliance with China. Because China has not and will not abide by the embargo, Russia has increased its foreign revenues while China benefits from cheaper fuel. Coupled with his intentional depletion of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve and support for the Left’s Green New Deal, Biden has further empowered Russia’s energy-dominated economy and Putin’s war machine at Americans’ expense. Our citizens are also entitled to know how the billions of U.S. taxpayer dollars are being utilized in Ukraine.
We cannot prioritize intervention in an escalating foreign war over the defense of our own homeland, especially as tens of thousands of Americans are dying every year from narcotics smuggled across our open border and our weapons arsenals critical for our own security are rapidly being depleted."
“We are sure that as a former military officer deployed to a combat zone, Governor Ron DeSantis knows the difference between a ‘dispute’ and war. We invite him to visit Ukraine to get a deeper understanding of Russia’s full-scale invasion and the threats it poses to US interests.” Oleg Nikolenko Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine.
Governor DeSantis is in the second four-year term (2019-2023 and 2023- ) with the citizens of the State of Florida. His four-year contract earns US$130,273.00 annually. The salary for the President of the United States is US$400,000.00 annually in addition to an expense account of US$50,000.00 annually.
The position by Governor DeSantis about United States taxpayer borrowing to support the government of Ukraine nearly aligns with that of former President Trump. Current national polling indicates 25% to 40% of individuals who may participate in the 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries are supportive of or could support the positions of Governor DeSantis and former President Trump. If there are a large number of individuals participating in the first series of debates sponsored by the RNC then Governor DeSantis by adhering to a position opposed by most of the other debate participants provides an opportunity for differentiation- toward where those core participants in the Republican presidential primary process tend to gravitate. In the Republican presidential primary process, contrarians have received the most media coverage- and sometimes the most support from voters.
The use by Governor DeSantis of the phrase “territorial dispute” is clever in that it was crafted to evoke controversy, which has been successful. The media is focusing upon those two words. Cleverness does also create risk for Governor DeSantis.
If the armed forces of Ukraine are successful in removing the armed forces of the Russian Federation from all or a substantial portion of the territory of Ukraine during the next six months- as the RNC-sponsored debates are underway, that initially successful cleverness may be a weight too heavy to carry. Then, the political flipflop- “I was for it before I was against it.”
Useful to note too that the statement delivered by Governor DeSantis to Fox News was not a 280-character (Free) to 4,000-character (Blue) Tweet. The words in the statement were the result of collaboration. Observers have an interest in their identities.
“Mr. [Kevin] McCarthy, he has to come here to see how we work, what's happening here, what war caused us, which people are fighting now, who are fighting now. And then after that, make your assumptions. I think that Speaker McCarthy, he never visited Kyiv or Ukraine, and I think it would help him with his position.” Volodymyr Zelensky, President of Ukraine. 8 March 2023
“Let’s be very clear about what I said: no blank checks, OK? So, from that perspective, I don’t have to go to Ukraine to understand where there’s a blank check or not. I will continue to get my briefings and others, but I don’t have to go to Ukraine or Kyiv to see it. And my point has always been, I won’t provide a blank check for anything.” Kevin McCarthy (R- California, 20th District), Speaker of the United States House of Representatives. 8 March 2023
In 2022, the 117th United States Congress appropriated US$113 billion for Ukraine with those funds to be disbursed from 2022 through 2026 (or earlier as ordered equipment becomes available for delivery). The 117th United States Congress (House of Representatives and Senate) were controlled by the Democratic Party. The 118th United States Congress has a House of Representatives controlled by the Republican Party.
Biden 2024 Budget Proposal Implies Substantial Resources For Ukraine Not Required Beyond 2023. US$113 Billion Appropriated In 2022. US$8.922 Billion For 2024? Some 2022 Funds Not Yet Spent.
The White House proposes to spend US$842 billion in Fiscal Year 2024 for the United States Department of Defense (DOD) representing an increase of 3.2% from Fiscal Year 2023. The budget proposal includes funding for Ukraine- although not specifying whether the proposed funding is military-related or economic-related.
“Supports Ukraine, European Allies, and Partners. The Budget provides over $6 billion to support Ukraine, the United States’ strong alliance with the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), and other European partner states by prioritizing funding to enhance the capabilities and readiness of United States, allied, and partner forces in the face of continued Russian aggression.”
“In addition, the Budget requests $753 million for Ukraine to continue to counter Russian malign influence and to meet emerging needs related to security, energy, cybersecurity, disinformation, macroeconomic stabilization, and civil society resilience.”
“To assist Ukraine and manage the aftershocks of Putin’s invasion, the request includes 469 million to bolster the economy and ensure the continuity of government services, strengthen their energy infrastructure and cyber security, and ultimately promote the resilience of the Ukrainian people.”
“This request includes $1.7 billion that will help Ukraine win the war and lay the reform and recovery foundation for winning the peace and help other partners impacted by the war stabilize their economies and prepare for recovery.”
Joseph Biden, President of the United States (14 March 2023): “And NATO united in Europe is — under Ukraine — to do with Ukraine. Remember, when the war started, I was unfortunately — because I had access that I made sure that I was going to not reveal what the intelligence people call “sources and methods” — who said it or did it. But I got — I got clearance from the intelligence community. And remember, I said that those 158,000 people along the border, those Russians on the Ukrainian border — I said they’re going to invade. Because I wanted everybody to know we knew what was happening. And they invaded. The largest invasion since World War Two. Over 185,000 Russian troops invaded.
And so, because he [Vladimir Putin, President of the Russian Federation] counted on the fact that NATO was not going to hold, NATO would split, we wouldn’t all agree. Well, I’ve spent literally over 1,800 hours dealing with all those NATO leaders — as recently as today, by the way, with one of them, from Great Britain — holding us together, not because of me, but just working it. Because I’m convinced that if we stay together, they cannot succeed. And so, the end result of all that is that Putin was of the of the mind that he was going to be able to break NATO and split the Alliance and that’s when everything would begin to fall apart.
Well, folks, you see what’s happening to those Ukrainians. They’re a brave people. God love them, as my mother would say. God love them. They’re doing a remarkable job. And now you have 144 members of the United States — of — excuse me, of the United Nations — saying that the Russians are dead wrong, they’re engaged in — in serious genocide that’s going on in that country. They don’t say “genocide” — war crimes. But the point I’m making is that there was a miscalculation. And so, we’ve all stayed together. And the end result has been that NATO is — they’re still hanging on. Who knows what exactly is going to happen from here on in. That’s another issue. But the point is that we held democracies that — we held the democracies together, all of us.”
Joseph Biden, President of the United States (14 March 2023): “And, you know, everything from NATO and Ukraine has been a real push. It's cost a lot of money. And it's also -- but it's the right thing to do. There are -- you know, we -- I don't think we have a choice. Never do we have 185,000 people invade another country in Europe since World War Two. And it's -- lots at stake.”