Are U.S.-Ukraine “War Games” Focusing On Russia Armed Forces Evidence To President Putin That U.S. And NATO Are At War With Russia? And Ukraine Is “De Facto” Member Of NATO As President Zelensky Says?
When Leadership Of Ministry Of Defense Of The Russian Federation Knows United States Department Of Defense Leads “War Games” For Armed Forces Of Ukraine Where Targets Are Armed Forces Of The Russian Federation, How Can Phrase “Proxy War” Not Be Valid?
Is President Zelensky Getting What He Wants- NATO Versus Russia? United States Versus Russia?
Is What President Zelensky Wants Good For Taxpayers Funding Members Of NATO?
“We’re going to help them adapt more.” The United States and NATO “can keep going as long as necessary.” General Christopher Cavoli, Supreme Allied Commander Europe (SACEUR) and Commander, United States European Command
The thirty Brussels, Belgium-based North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) members: United States, United Kingdom, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, France, Iceland, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Albania, Lithuania, Bulgaria, Montenegro, Croatia, Czech Republic, Poland, Estonia, Romania, Germany, Slovakia, Greece, Slovenia, Hungary, Spain, Turkey, Latvia, and North Macedonia.
The Russian Federation-Ukraine war has transitioned since 10 February 2014 from a traditionally defined proxy-war to what an increasing number of constituencies view today as a but-in-name-only direct conflict with some members of NATO deploying equipment, operational guidance, servicing, targeting, training, and intelligence sharing to the armed forces of Ukraine.
The only missing component are officially confirmed members of the armed forces of NATO member countries on the battlefields in Ukraine. There has been an increasing presence of representatives in Ukraine from non-Ukraine-based intelligence agencies, and military departments and ministries since prior to 24 February 2022 and expanding since, both those assigned to embassies and agencies and those with non-official cover (NOC).
For some observers, mission-creep is only a matter of time before members of the armed forces of some NATO countries are confirmed officially in Ukraine on or near battlefields in “non-combat” or “observer” roles. Leaving the only unfulfilled roles as pushing a button or pulling a trigger.
If members of the armed forces of NATO countries are standing behind a member of the armed forces of Ukraine and as a target becomes available uttering the word “fire” then does it matter who is pushing the button or pulling the trigger?
The New York Times
New York, New York
2 March 2023
At U.S. Base in Germany, Ukraine’s Military Conducts War Games
The exercises come as Ukraine is emerging from a winter that was expected to offer a lull in fighting. Ukraine’s president appeared to signal recently that the country is preparing for a major offensive.
By Helene Cooper and Eric Schmitt
“WIESBADEN, Germany- With winter almost behind them, senior American generals hosted Ukrainian military officials this week for a set of “tabletop” exercises designed to help Kyiv map out the next stage of its battle to reclaim territory from dug-in Russian troops. During a war-game session at the headquarters of U.S. Army Europe and Africa, the military officials rehearsed a range of options for an offensive that Ukraine’s leader, President Volodymyr Zelensky, has been telegraphing for some time.
The sessions, attended on Thursday by President Biden’s most senior generals responsible for American efforts to help Ukraine, were meant to strategize, officials said, mapping out the risks and benefits of a variety of moves that Ukraine might make against Russian positions in the coming months. Ukrainian officials will ultimately decide which course to follow, with the American military officials described as serving like a sounding board.
After one session on Thursday, Gen. Christopher G. Cavoli, the supreme allied commander for Europe, praised the Ukrainian military’s “phenomenal” adaptability and said, “We’re going to help them adapt more.” The United States and NATO, he said, “can keep going as long as necessary.” The war games come as Ukraine is emerging from a winter that was expected to provide a lull in fighting. But both sides continue to take heavy casualties in the Russian onslaught against the eastern city of Bakhmut. Earlier this week, Mr. Zelensky appeared to signal that Ukraine was preparing for a major offensive. He said in a speech that he had met with top officers in the military about preparations, as well as about shortages in weaponry and ammunition.
General Milley refused to detail the options that the Ukrainians tested during the exercises. But other senior American officials, military analysts and Ukrainian officials themselves have suggested that Kyiv might try to move against Russian defensive lines in the northeast or eastern parts of the country, including in Donetsk and Luhansk. Ukraine could also mount an offensive in the south, targeting the so-called land bridge that connects the Russian mainland to Crimea, the Ukrainian peninsula illegally annexed by Moscow in 2014. In January, Defense Secretary Lloyd J. Austin III told a Washington Post columnist, Max Boot, that a “realistic goal for this year” would be for the Ukrainians to cut the “land bridge.”
General Milley said that in addition to providing tanks and ammunition and fighting vehicles, the Biden administration was intent on helping Ukraine’s air defenses, a task that Pentagon war planners deem critical. Western officials have warned that if Ukraine runs out of the weaponry it has used over the past year to keep Russian war planes at bay, Moscow could quickly gain a stronger hand. “The most important priority the Ukrainians need right now is air defense,” General Milley said. “That is what President Zelensky has asked for — the ability to continue to defend the airspace of Ukraine against the Russian onslaught by Russian aircraft and missile attack.”
During the course of the war, Russian pilots have not ventured far beyond their own borders into Ukrainian airspace because Kyiv, using a variety of air defense systems coupled with early warning intelligence from the United States, has managed to make the skies above Ukraine a danger zone for Russian warplanes. Earlier this week, another member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff was in Germany to review U.S. assistance to Ukraine’s army. Gen. Daniel R. Hokanson, chief of the National Guard Bureau, visited the Army training area in Grafenwöhr, where soldiers from the New York State National Guard and other American troops are instructing Ukrainian forces.
General Hokanson spent several hours at Camp Kherson, a portion of the training area named after the city in southern Ukraine where Ukrainian forces achieved a major victory over Russian troops last fall. “We are delivering the training they’ve asked for, and the training they need,” he said in an email on Thursday. Under Pentagon guidelines, General Hokanson was not allowed to describe in detail the training he saw. The restrictions reflect the Biden administration’s concerns about escalating tensions with Russia over U.S. involvement in the war or triggering a wider conflict with the West. The U.S. has conducted training at Grafenwöhr for years, with limited instruction for Ukrainian forces beginning last year, shortly after the Russian invasion.
At first, the training focused specifically on several weapons systems supplied by the United States, such as the howitzer. But starting in January, the Pentagon began broadening the training to prepare Ukrainian troops to launch an offensive or counter any surge in Russian attacks, as is happening now along several hundred miles of front lines. The five-week course is intended to teach Ukrainian troops how to move and coordinate company- and battalion-size units on the battlefield, synchronizing the use of artillery, armor and ground forces in what the military calls combined arms training. The U.S. armed forces have trained over 1,000 Ukrainians since January, bringing the total trained since last February to just over 4,000 troops, senior Pentagon officials said this week. National Guard soldiers have played an essential role in helping train Ukraine dating back three decades. Ukrainian pilots have also trained with the California Air National Guard, both in California and in Ukraine.”
Further Thoughts…
If the armed forces of Ukraine venture (directly or indirectly or through proxies- officially controlled or not officially controlled) into the territory of the Republic of Belarus and/or the territory of the Russian Federation and there are Belarusian casualties and Russian Federation casualties, out-of-country commercial, economic, humanitarian, military, and political support to Ukraine will be compromised. Unknown is to what degree they may be compromised. Vladimir Putin, President of the Russian Federation, will again share that with the armed forces of Ukraine entering the sovereign territory of Belarus and the sovereign territory of the Russian Federation, the government of Ukraine is acting as would a member of NATO- had a member of NATO been attacked. Unknown too is if President Putin will define “entering” as personnel crossing the territorial borders or projectiles crossing the territorial borders.
From the perspective of President Putin, NATO would be participating in an escalatory war against the armed forces of the Russian Federation and possibly the armed forces of Belarus.
With officials of the government of Ukraine continuing to maintain, as they have prior to 24 February 2022, that the government of Ukraine is a de facto member of NATO, and despite officials and member representatives of NATO reiterating that the government of Ukraine is not a member of NATO, President Putin will gain opportunities for increasing domestic support for what was a Special Military Operation (SMO) and has transitioned, by his own definition, into a war.
What happens when the armed forces of the Russian Federation determine decisions implemented by the armed forces of Ukraine using military equipment provided by NATO members and non-NATO members are offensive rather than defensive? Officially declare the Russian Federation is at war with NATO with the rationale that the armed forces of Ukraine have NATO equipment, NATO training, NATO support, NATO targeting assistance, NATO intelligence gathering, NATO technicians providing online and remote visual guidance including for the repair of equipment, and NATO personnel within the territory of Ukraine so the totality has morphed from a war-by-proxy to a 21st Century hybrid war- which doesn’t need to be direct? One result- that President Putin would focus any negotiation to end the war toward NATO leadership in Brussels, Belgium, rather than with government of Ukraine leadership in Kyiv, Ukraine. Testing the NATO mantra, “nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine.”
A former Minister of Defence of Ukraine shared recently during a television interview a false statement that there is “no hesitancy” by governments to support Ukraine. If there were no hesitancy, the distance since 24 February 2022, and previously from 10 February 2014 through 23 February 2022, between what governments believed the armed forces of Ukraine “needed” for defense and what the armed forces of Ukraine “wanted” for defense would have been far narrower. Even today, the armed forces of Ukraine are not receiving all that the armed forces of Ukraine want. Issues of concern include about technology transfers to the armed forces of the Russian Federation should military equipment be obtained due to capture, misfire, malfunction, or theft. A primary issue of concern remains how to control the armed forces of Ukraine should the government of Ukraine order an advance into the internationally-recognized borders of the Russian Federation.