President Trump Should Replace G7 With G10; Adding China, India And Returning Russia; From 9% To 47%
Will President Trump Make “G” Relevant Again And Impact WTO
Replace G7 With G10
Russia Returns, Add China & India
Inaugurate G10 At Camp David In June
Seven Global Issues Include China, India, Russia
Recognizing Secretary Of State Mike Pompeo’s “Realities On The Ground”
China, Russia On UN Security Council- Where They Have Veto Power
China, India, Each With Nuclear Weapons
China, India Are “Developing Countries” In WTO
6ft Round Table To 7ft Round Table
The Honorable Donald J. Trump, President of the United States, has this year a unique opportunity to replace the past-its-relevance Group of Seven (G7) and provide his imprimatur to consecrate a robust Group of Ten (G10).
The G7 as constituted represents 734.8 million, 9% of the world’s population. With the addition of three members, the G10 would represent 3.7 billion, or 47% of the world’s population. The world has 7.7 billion inhabitants.
The G7 is increasingly irrelevant as a true indicator of decision validity. Should 9% be making decisions impacting 90%? Should it try? Should it want to? Can it?
The G10 for the 21st Century should include: Canada, China, France, Germany, India, Italy, Japan, Russia, United Kingdom and United States.
Using as criteria for membership the type of commercial and economic systems a country embraces excludes the obvious- the global importance of China.
With annual leadership of the G7 and G20 rotating among members, there would be value in having China and India, first and second most populous countries respectively, and again Russia creating a year-long agenda for a G10. Leadership often stems greater accountability.
The challenge for President Trump is to convince China, India, and Russia that they should want to participate in the G10- and be accountable to the members of the G10.
As the global community arises from the impact of COVID-19, there will be dialogue essential to review what happened and to ensure that if it, or an equally impactful event happens again, countries will be better prepared. With COVID-19 originating in China, such dialogue would be more productive with China rather than absent China. There are impactful dynamics when ten leaders sit around a table and converse, in private.
How is it rational to exclude China and Russia when they are among the five permanent members, each with veto authority, in the New York, New York-based United Nations Security Council along with France, United Kingdom and United States- where France, United Kingdom and United States are members of the G7?
China and India are self-defined as Developing Countries among the 164 members of the Geneva, Switzerland-based World Trade Organization (WTO). Including China and India in the G10 would provide President Trump with a pathway for the two countries to be classified as Developed Countries.
Does it make sense that the world’s largest country by population and second-largest economy and the world’s second-largest country by population and fifth-largest economy, with each possessing nuclear weapons, each launching rockets into orbit, each having formidable militaries to be considered Developing Countries? Perhaps so, if developing nuclear weapons equates to the ambitions of a developing country.
If China and Russia were members of the G10, there might too be less resistance for trilateral arms control discussions with the United States- something President Trump is seeking. Presidents Putin, Trump and Xi would be in the same room, sitting around the same table. An opportunity.
The People’s Republic of China has the world’s largest population (1.4 billion) and the world’s second-largest economy; its trajectory is to be the world’s largest economy. The country ranks fourth largest in square miles amongst countries. The People’s Republic of China is invited to the G20 gatherings.
The Republic of India has the world’s second-largest population (1.3 billion), seventh-largest economy, and is often referenced by politicians as the “world’s largest democracy.” The Republic of India is invited to the G20 gatherings.
The Russian Federation has the twelfth-largest economy, closely behind Canada- but has nearly five times the population of Canada, 145.9 million compared to 37.7 million. The Russia Federation has eleven time zones. Canada has six time zones. The Russian Federation is the largest country as measured in square miles. The Russian Federation was excluded in 2014 as a result of its military actions on the Crimean Peninsula. The Russian Federation is invited to the G20 gatherings.
President Trump should invite President Putin, President Xi, and Prime Minister Modi to participate in the G7 Summit scheduled (in person or by video conference) for 10 June 2020 to 12 June 2020 at Camp David, the presidential retreat sixty-two miles north-northwest of Washington DC in the Catoctin Mountain Park near Thurmont, Maryland. There, the G7 could become the G10.
What a country chooses to do and the degree to which it does it cannot be ignored. Regardless is whether country leadership behaves appropriately, the country and its population remain intact- and ignoring three billion people does not work unless the goal of a group is talking rather than managing.
A group consisting of only “democracies” while proclaiming collective authority when it excludes the two countries having the largest populations, including the world’s second-largest economy, defies logic and defines anachronism. Inclusion generally promotes accountability; exclusion generally promotes independent behavior.
Membership, however, in the G8 did not prevent the invasion of Ukraine by Russia; membership in the G7 did not prevent disagreement as to Iran and in other binational and multinational conflicts throughout the Middle East; unanswerable is whether had China been a member of the G10, would have been different the global impact of COVID-19.
Turkey is another example of membership leverage gone awry- the country wanted to be a member of the Brussels, Belgium-based European Union (EU), but when the EU had leverage, it was squandered and Turkey today, while continuing to seek EU membership, will not give what it would have given just a few years ago. Had Turkey been a member of the EU, how might the responses have been shaped and implemented for issues with Cuba, Iran, Syria, and Venezuela?
Examine who are the primary state actors having a consequential commercial, economic, and political impact in issues of interest to the G7- and particularly to the United States:
Cuba (China, Russia, Turkey)
Iran (China, Russia, India)
North Korea (China, Russia)
Syria (Iran, Russia, Turkey)
Ukraine (Russia)
Venezuela (China, India, Russia, Turkey)
COVID-19 (China, India, Turkey)
A G10 membership card will not guarantee absence of confrontational, irresponsible, or poorly executed behavior, but membership can be a gravitational pull for dialogue, formal and informal, arising from consistent face-to-face encounters. Membership in the G10 would not, by default, legitimize, devalue bad behavior.
President Trump recognizes global power is no longer determined by what type of government a country has, it is determined by the commercial, economic, and political reach of a country. Creating the G10 is a rational legacy-building exercise.
G7, G8, G20, United Nations, OAS, EU, OPEC Membership
The Group of Seven (1974-1997), known as the G7, included Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, United Kingdom and United States.
The Group of Eight (1997-2014) known as the G8, included Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, United Kingdom, United States and Russia.
The Group of Seven (2014-Present) includes Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, United Kingdom and United States. The Russian Federation was excluded in 2014 as a result of its military actions on the Crimean Peninsula.
G20: Argentina, Brazil, China, Germany, Indonesia, Japan, Republic of Korea, Russia, Turkey, United States, Australia, Canada, France, India, Italy, Mexico, Republic of South Africa, Saudi Arabia, United Kingdom, and Brussels, Belgium-based European Union (EU).
EU: Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, and Sweden.
UN: There are five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council: China, France, Russia, United Kingdom, United States and ten non-permanent members (each elected for two-year terms) of the United Nations Security Council. There are 193 members of the United Nations.
OPEC: Algeria, Angola, Congo, Ecuador, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates and Venezuela. OPEC Observers: Egypt, Mexico, Norway, Oman, and Russia among other countries.
OAS: Antigua and Barbuda, Argentina, Barbados, Belize, Bolivia, Brazil, Canada, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Dominica, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, El Salvador, Grenada, Guatemala, Guyana, Haiti, Honduras, Jamaica, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Paraguay, Peru, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Suriname, The Bahamas, Trinidad and Tobago, United States, Uruguay and Venezuela.
