To Keep What Has Been Gained, Ukraine’s Zelensky Needs To Mirror Russia’s Putin. Can He Do That? Will He Do That? The Return Of “Elasticity Theory”
To Keep What Has Been Gained, Ukraine’s Zelensky Needs To Mirror Russia’s Putin. Can He Do That? Will He Do That? The Return Of “Elasticity Theory”
Embarrassing, Absolutely. But, In Terms Of Real Estate? In August 2024, Ukraine Controls .007% Of Russian Federation. From 2014 With Additions Since 2022, Russian Federation Controls 18% Of Ukraine.
President Putin Can And Is Willing To Do To Win What President Zelensky Cannot And Is Unwilling To Do To Win.
To Retain Real Estate, Is President Zelensky Prepared To Do Militarily Within The Territory Of The Russian Federation What The President Putin Has Done And Continues To Do Militarily Within The Territory Of Ukraine? No.
Is President Zelensky Prepared To Expand From Targeting Commercial And Military Infrastructure Within The Russian Federation To Targeting Civilians And Civilian Infrastructure (Apartment Buildings, Churches, Hospitals, Schools, Train Stations) Within The Russian Federation? No.
To Subjugate Ukraine, The Armed Forces Of The Russian Federation Have Targeted Civilians And Civilian Infrastructure (Apartment Buildings, Churches, Hospitals, Schools, Train Stations) Throughout Ukraine. To Remove The Armed Forces Of Ukraine From The Territory Of The Russian Federation, Is There Any Reason To Expect A Different Decision? No.
The armed forces of Ukraine control approximately 1,250 square kilometers (approximately 482 square miles) of the internationally-recognized territory of the Russian Federation, which consists of approximately 17,075,400 square kilometers (approximately 6,592,800 square miles). That is .007%.
The armed forces of the Russian Federation control approximately 109,000 square kilometers (approximately 42,085.1 square miles) of the internationally-recognized territory of Ukraine, which consists of approximately 603,700 square kilometers (approximately 233,030 square miles). That is 18%.
In 2014, Vladimir Putin, President of the Russian Federation (2000-2008 and 2012- ), commenced a non-paid real estate-based shopping spree, sort of an extremely outsized real estate version of a “smash and grab” within the internationally-recognized territory of Ukraine. In 2022, President Putin expanded and accelerated that effort. Today, the armed forces of the Russian Federation control of approximately eighteen percent (18%) of the internationally-recognized territory of Ukraine.
On 24 February 2022, the armed forces of the Russian Federation invaded and further invaded the territory of Ukraine in what Vladimir Putin, President of the Russian Federation (2000-2008 and 2012- ), defined as a Special Military Operation [SMO] then on 22 December 2022 he redefined as a war. The initial invasion of Ukraine by the armed forces of the Russian Federation was in part from the territory of Belarus.
The war between the Russian Federation and Ukraine did not commence on 24 February 2022. The roots began their trajectories on 20 February 2014 when the armed forces of the Russian Federation invaded the Crimean Peninsula and the area known as the Donbas Region (Donetsk Oblast and Luhansk Oblast).
Volodymyr Zelensky, President of Ukraine (2019- ), wants the shopping spree halted, and the real estate bagged thus far to be returned, along with a substantial payment. With approximately US$320 billion in assets of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation remaining frozen since February 2022 within financial institutions located outside of the internationally-recognized territory of the Russian Federation, those funds could be considered as payment-in-full or as a deposit. In the third year of the expanded Russian Federation-Ukraine war, the funds remain frozen, not seized and provided to the government of Ukraine, not used in support of the government of Ukraine. Taxpayers in countries supporting the government of Ukraine have since 24 February 2022 committed and delivered approximately US$400 billion in commercial, economic, financial, military, political, and social funding to the government of Ukraine. Officials in the government of Ukraine have offered that they seek commitments from taxpayers in more than fifty countries for a combined approximately US$100 billion annually for an unknown number of years.
The armed forces of Ukraine have in 2024 far superior internationally-sourced and domestically-produced defensive and offensive hardware and software than in 2022 which can today intercept and re-direct an increasingly higher percentage- but not 100% of incoming drones, missiles, and rockets launched by the armed forces of the Russian Federation. However, there remain targets struck and citizens murdered and wounded throughout the internationally-recognized territory of Ukraine. The armed forces of Ukraine also has an expanding capacity- and willingness to use it, to deliver drones, missiles, and rockets into the internationally-recognized territory of the Russian Federation, including the capital, Moscow.
President Zelensky must view military decisions through a vast prism of accountability absent for President Putin.
For the government of Ukraine, all decisions (commercial, economic, financial, military, political, social, etc.) impact relationships (and potential membership) with the twenty-seven member countries of the Brussels, Belgium-based European Union (EU) and thirty-two member countries of the Brussels, Belgium-based North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).
EU: Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden.
NATO: United States, United Kingdom, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, Finland, France, Iceland, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Albania, Lithuania, Bulgaria, Montenegro, Croatia, Czech Republic, Poland, Estonia, Romania, Germany, Slovakia, Greece, Slovenia, Hungary, Spain, Turkiye, Latvia, North Macedonia, Sweden.
President Putin has only to focus upon not compromising, offending, or upending commercial, economic, financial, military, political, social, etc., relationships with six countries: China, Belarus, India, Iran, North Korea, and Turkiye.
Elasticity Theory will continue to constrain the government of Ukraine and the armed forces of Ukraine.
The government of the Russian Federation could today digest an end to offensive military operations within the internationally-recognized territory of Ukraine by rationalizing that in 2022 the armed forces of the Russian Federation were facing the armed forces of Ukraine.
In 2024, the armed forces of the Russian Federation are facing the armed forces of Ukraine and the ever-increasing representation of NATO augmented by other countries.
During these two-plus years of the expanded war, the armed forces of the Russian Federation have maintained their defensive positions. Thus, a victory.
While President Putin continues to desire a full digestion of the internationally-recognized territory of Ukraine, he appreciates the unlikelihood of fulfilling that goal. He does want to secure the entirety of the Donbas Region which includes the Donetsk Oblast and Luhansk Oblast so the previously-determined “annexation” of each oblast would have increased domestic legitimacy and potentially simplified negotiations with the government of Ukraine about lines of demarcation.