30 May 2022: Marine One (helicopter) landed on the South Lawn of The White House at 9:11 a.m.  Joseph Biden, 46th President of the United States, is wearing a black suit and sunglasses.  

Q: Are you going to send long-range rocket systems to Ukraine?
A: “We are not going to send to Ukraine rocket systems that can strike into Russia.”

Yes, President Biden said this…. But, what does it mean?  Nothing good for the armed forces of Ukraine.  Nothing good for the government of Ukraine.  

Absent elaboration (clarification), which will undoubtedly be forthcoming from The White House, United States Department of Defense, and United States Department of State, the statement by the President suggests that whatever the maximum distance of long-range rocket systems provided to Ukraine, those systems will be located at the maximum distance from the Ukraine border with the Russian Federation. 

The Multiple Launch Rocket System (MLRS) and High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS) have ranges of up to 500 kilometers (310 miles). 

The problem develops when the armed forces of Ukraine are in conflict with the armed forces of the Russian Federation within distances less than the maximum distance of the long-range rocket systems- as most are now and have been since 24 February 2022.   

The implication for the armed forces of the Russian Federation are they will be immune from the MLRS and HIMARS provided they explore no further than up to 500 kilometers into the territory of Ukraine.   

• The distance from the eastern city of Kharkiv to the western city of Lviv is approximately 1,000 kilometers.
  The distance from the eastern city of Kharkiv to the nearest Russian Federation border is approximately 41 kilometers.
  The distance from the central city of Dnipro to the nearest Russian Federation border is approximately 256 kilometers.
  The distance from the southern port city of Odesa to the nearest Russian Federation border (the annexed Crimean Peninsula) is approximately 300 kilometers.
  The distance from the northern city of Kyiv, the capital of Ukraine, to the nearest Russian Federation border is approximately 350 kilometers.

Does President Biden mean that the MLRS and HIMARS may not be deployed less than 500 kilometers from the Ukraine borders with the Russian Federation? 

Which inevitably leads to the question of how to define victory for the armed forces of Ukraine.  Here are some statements that foster concern rather than quell concern.  How to square the publicly-stated goals with the realities on the ground- or, more accurately, the realities that soon may be on the ground. 

• “The U.S. aim is fundamentally about support to Ukraine, and the end state goal will be decided primarily between Ukraine and Russia… “We want to be supportive of an approach that protects Ukraine’s statehood and understands that beyond that, it’s going to be between those two parties.” Dr. Kathleen Hicks, United States Deputy Secretary of Defense 

• “Ukraine is not asking anybody else to fight their fight,” he said in a statement. “They only ask for the tools they need for self-defense… America’s support for Ukraine’s self-defense is not mere philanthropy.  Defending the principle of sovereignty, promoting stability in Europe, and imposing costs on Russia’s naked aggression have a direct and vital bearing on America’s national security and vital interests.” Mr. Mitch McConnell (R- Kentucky), minority leader of the United States Senate 

• “We will never recognize borders that Russia has attempted to change by military aggression… The countries will uphold their “engagement in the support of the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine, including Crimea, and all states.” Group of Seven Ministers of Foreign Affairs 

• “We want the Russian army to leave our land — we aren’t on Russian soil…We won’t help Putin save face by paying with our territory.  That would be unjust.” Volodymyr Zelensky, President of Ukraine 

• “No one today can predict how long this war will last…. This will depend, unfortunately, not only on our people, who are already giving their maximum.  This will depend on our partners, on European countries, on the entire free world… This is the only recipe for protecting freedom in the face of the Russian invasion.  And for Western countries, this is not simply an expense.  This is not about accounting, it’s about the future.” Volodymyr Zelensky, President of Ukraine