Residents Of Minsk And Brest Embrace Reflections And Deflections As They Seek To Remain Resolute, Creative, Ambitious- And Not Leave. Belarus Tourist Sector Devoid Of Numbers, But Not Service.
Belarus. A Nation Of 9.3 Million Under Sanctions.
An Inherent Good, Appreciative People. Retaining Their Pride.
Residents Of Minsk And Brest Embrace Reflections And Deflections As They Seek To Remain Resolute, Creative, Ambitious- And Not Leave.
Good People Who Deserve Better From Their Government.
From Abroad, Citizens Of Belarus Look To Be Suffering, Or Should Be Suffering From Sanctions Unrelated To The Russian Federation-Ukraine War And From Sanctions Related To The Russian Federation-Ukraine War. But, Suffering May Be Inaccurate. They Are Inconvenienced.
The Young Are Discouraged. Parents Are Concerned About The Future For Their Children. As With Other Countries, Healthcare Workers And Educators Are Far Too Few. Those With Entrepreneurial Instincts Have Looked Outside Of Belarus To Forge Their Fortunes. The Natural Transitory Borders With Poland Along With Latvia And Lithuania Remain Operationally Problematic.
From Within, There Is A Functioning Nation. Belarusian Designers Have Replaced Those From Abroad. Coffee Houses Compete For Customers. A Restaurant Server Will Carefully Align Precisely A Fork, Knife, And Spoon On A Napkin- Thinking No One Is Watching. Assemblers And Manufacturers Of Quality Products Explore New Markets, Although Struggle To Do So. Sanctions Impede A Historically Robust Agricultural Commodity Export Landscape.
On 22 February 2022, The Armed Forces Of The Russian Federation Commenced Their Invasion Of Ukraine (Targeting Kyiv) From The Territory Of Belarus- Which Remains An Unindicted Co-Conspirator And Yet-To-Be Sanctioned As Has The Russian Federation.
On 24 February 2022, the armed forces of the Russian Federation invaded and further invaded the territory of Ukraine in what Vladimir Putin, President of the Russian Federation (2000-2008 and 2012- ), then defined as a Special Military Operation [SMO] and 22 December 2022 he redefined as a war. The initial invasion by the armed forces of the Russian Federation was in part from the territory of Belarus.
Belarus shares 1,845 miles of land borders with Latvia (European Union and NATO member), Lithuania (European Union and NATO member), Poland (European Union and NATO member), Russian Federation, and Ukraine (European Union candidate member since 23 June 2022).
Sanctioning Countries Believe Not Doing To Belarus What They Have Done To The Russian Federation, The Lukashenko Administration In Minsk Will Neither Be Pushed Nor Pulled Fully Into The Commercial, Economic, Financial, Military, And Political Forever Gravitational Orbit Of The Putin Administration In Moscow. Defining “Fully” And “Forever” Are Challenging.
Credit Cards Work. Cellular Device Roaming Works. Some International Product Brands Remain Available. Travel Agencies, For Example, Belind Travel, Employ Only Officially-Licensed Tour Guides To Ensure A Quality Product. The Company Provides Outstanding Care For Its Guests And Particularly Adept With Bespoke Itineraties. United States-Branded Hotels Operate. Restaurants Provide The Same Level Of Service As In London, New York, Paris, And Rome. The Hermitage Hotel In Brest Serves An Outstanding Roast Duck Breast.
Belarus continues to be progressively impacted by sanctions (commercial, economic, financial, political) imposed since 2020 for election irregularities, forcing a jetliner to land and then arresting a passenger, and co-conspirator activities relating to the 22 February 2022 invasion of Ukraine by the armed forces of the Russian Federation from the territory of Belarus.
Prior to the twenty-seven-country member Brussels, Belgium-based European Union (EU) implementation of sanctions upon Belarus, there were many airline companies operating flights from Minsk (2023 population approximately two million) to EU-member countries. There were multiple trains per day from Belarus into Poland. The city of Brest (2023 population approximately 343,000) is twenty-six miles from Terespol, Poland. Thousands of consumers in Belarus and consumers in Poland would traverse the border each day by car, bus, and train. Food and fuel one way and appliances, furniture, and other products the other way.
LINKS To Previous Analyses
3/24/22- Visiting Belarus Since 24 February 2022 Comes With Surprises… And Questions.
Belavia Airlines has thirteen aircraft (Boeing and Embraer) and had four Boeing 737-Max aircraft ordered; one delivered but remains not operational and three remain in the United States. The Russian Federation will not permit the Boeing 737-Max to operate in its territory due to a dispute with the government of the United States.
Travel time from Istanbul, Türkiye, to Minsk prior to sanctions upon the government of Belarus, Belarus airspace, and Minsk, Belarus-based Belavia Airlines, implemented by the EU and United States in 2021 was two hours, then increased to four hours, and is six hours with flights having to traverse country borders. Flight path includes Kazakhstan and Russian Federation (including near the city of Moscow). Fuel cost for a round-trip was approximately US$10,000.00 and today is more than US$30,000.00. However, today airlines servicing Minsk have increased, and flights have increased.
Belavia Airlines does continue to provide excellent service- from the check-in process, FastTrack security for Business Class passengers. A Business Class lounge. Inflight beverages in crystal glasses. Courteous and friendly cabin crew. The company also employs a most responsive customer service team.
Railroad travel remains critical for most citizens and residents of Belarus. There are several types of trains- commuter to long distance. There are overnight trains (operated by Belarusian Railway and Russian Railways) from Brest-Minsk-Moscow; Brest-Minsk-St. Petersburg, Minsk-Moscow, and other routes.
By the end of 2024, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates-based Royal Development Company will welcome guests to the 174-room Waldorf Astoria Grand Hotel. The six-floor US$223 million property will be managed by McLean, Virginia-based Hilton Worldwide Holdings, Inc. (2023 revenue US$10.24 billion) which has four properties in Belarus- three in Minsk and one in Brest.
The Basilian Minsk (within the Curio Collection by Hilton) has the best location and service in Belarus. Their team is unrivaled in the effort each one provides to guests. The building is a former hospital and before that a convent.
Bethesda, Maryland-based Marriott International, Inc. (2023 revenue US$23.71 billion) had two properties in Minsk, now has one property in Minsk.
Inside Train Station In Brest. Clocks Include One For Kyiv. Entrance To Business Lounge
Travel from Brest to Minsk on Russian Railways. The train continues to St. Petersburg, Russian Federation. There is no First Class (two berth compartment) on this train. There are Second Class with four berths per compartment. This carriage was delivered in 2019. Inside, there is not a scratch, scuff mark, torn or frayed fabric, broken fixture.
The carriage looked as though it arrived from the manufacturer that very day. Why is this carriage so clean? Passengers care. Trash is not discarded anywhere convenient.
In Belarus, its citizens care for their surroundings. Pedestrians await green crossing signals rather than dart across a road. They are patient and considerate.
Russian Railways Carriage Inside 2nd Class Compartment Bathrooms
Inside A Bathroom Onboard Menu Onboard Menu Items
Onboard Snack Selection The Tea Kettle
Russian Railways Tea Packet. Open Outer Cover And Inside Is Perforated Tea Bag. One Tea Packet Is 25 Rubles (92.33 Rubles To US$1.00)
The level of service at hotels and restaurants in Belarus has remained outstanding as sanctions have been imposed. The number of tourists arriving to Belarus remains anemic. Wealthier travelers from Asia, Canada, EU member countries, and United States among others are rare.
They have been augmented in part by visitors from India, Pakistan, and Russian Federation (who seek products unavailable in their country and products that are far less expensive).
Unlike the pre-sanction era visitors, the replacements typically are on budgets, so gratuities may be less. They like casinos and nightclubs.
Supermarket Jules Verne Restaurant In Brest- Serves Terrific French Cuisine “Odessa” Restaurant In Brest (and Minsk)
An Amazing Sea Buckthorn Mouse Cake At Hermitage Hotel In Brest
Minsk Airport Duty Free Cuba’s Havana Club Competes With Bermuda’s Bacardi
Alexander Lukashenko, President of the Republic of Belarus (1994- ), must be realistic as to what he and the citizens he represents will encounter in terms of military conflict and additional commercial, economic, financial, and political sanctions should he again permit the armed forces of the Russian Federation to deploy from Belarus into the territory of Ukraine- regardless of whether he also deploys the armed forces of Belarus into the territory of Ukraine.
Unindicted To Indicted
The government of Belarus has authorized the armed forces of the Russian Federation to use the territory of Belarus to launch missiles into the territory of Ukraine. Railways and roadways in Belarus have been used by the armed forces of the Russian Federation to transport military equipment from the Russian Federation into Belarus for deployment into the territory of Ukraine.
If the Lukashenko Administration does permit again use of its territory by the armed forces of the Russian Federation for another ground invasion of the territory of Ukraine, with or absent the armed forces of Belarus, expect the totality of sanctions implemented since 24 February 2022 against the government of the Russian Federation and government-owned and privately-owned companies within the Russian Federation to be swiftly recrafted, retargeted, and then implemented against the government of Belarus and government-owned and privately-owned companies within Belarus.
There continues a robust discussion by governments in those countries supporting the government of Ukraine not to await movement by ground forces from Belarus into the territory of Ukraine and implement immediately those sanctions planned in conjunction with a ground invasion. The convened prosecutions in Minsk of individuals- both in person and in absentia, are considered triggering events.
If fully-throttled sanctions against Belarus are implemented prior to another ground invasion, the decision would align with the pleadings of the government of Ukraine prior to 24 February 2022 when it advocated for sanctions upon the Russian Federation (public sectors and private sectors) to serve as a deterrent. There is a belief amongst intelligence agencies that the Lukashenko Administration would have far less elasticity than did or does the Putin Administration to absorb and deflect the impact of fully-throttled sanctions.
From The European Council (EC): “Following the fraudulent presidential elections in Belarus in August 2020, the EU has progressively expanded restrictive measures against individuals and entities in Belarus. Since October 2020, the EU has imposed five packages of sanctions in connection with the situation in Belarus, targeting a total of 195 individuals and 35 entities.”
Since 2014, the EC has adopted thirteen packages of sanctions upon the Russian Federation with more expected.
As one head of government shared, “To borrow from our American friends, this would be a ‘shock and awe’ moment for Mr. Lukashenko. So far, he has been an observer of sanctions. There has been too little bite. This sting could be and should be fatal.”
This head of government means removal of all Belarus-based financial entities from the global transaction network managed by the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (S.W.I.F.T.); MasterCard and Visa credit cards and debit cards issued by Belarus-based financial entities would not be valid for use within those countries implementing sanctions; MasterCard and Visa credit cards and debit cards issued by financial institutions located in those countries implementing sanctions would not be valid for use in Belarus; and hotels, restaurants, and retail stores managed by companies within those countries implementing sanctions would no longer be operational. A passport issued by the government of Belarus may become temporarily invalid to those countries sharing a border with Belarus.
A risk from the imposition of fully-throttled commercial, economic, financial, military, and political sanctions upon Belarus is the Lukashenko Administration will move further, and do so more swiftly into the commercial, economic, humanitarian, military, and political sphere of the government the Russian Federation. There is a risk of a wave of migration from Belarus. There is a risk for a rally-around-the-flag (and the president) moment should Belarus be invaded by the armed forces of Ukraine. Intelligence agencies believe the majority of the population would use a breach of territorial integrity as an opportunity for work stoppages and protests against the Lukashenko Administration.
There is a risk that a collapse of the Lukashenko Administration would result in the armed forces of the Russian Federation marshalling the annexation and absorption of Belarus into the territory of the Russian Federation. While unlikely, it is possible.
A collapse and de facto control of Belarus by the government of the Russian Federation could leave the Russian Federation 1,574 miles of land borders with Finland (European Union and NATO member), Latvia (European Union and NATO member), Lithuania (European Union and NATO member), Norway (NATO member), Poland (European Union and NATO member), and a maritime boundary Sweden (European Union and NATO member) and United States (NATO member). One certain result is more taxpayer-funded military hardware directed to those frontline countries.
Intelligence agencies have modeled acceptable risk thresholds to their commercial, economic, financial, military, and political interests, short-term, medium-term, and long-term resulting from the implementation of further sanctions upon Belarus and of any territorial incursion(s) into Belarus by the armed forces of Ukraine.
The assessments coincide: There are enough citizens of Belarus who will as they did in 2020, but far more forcefully to cause a change in government- even if bloodshed is required.