One Head Of State Absent From Both APEC Summit And G20 Summit And He’s Not Happy About It. Participants Are Relieved.
One Head Of State Absent From Both APEC Summit And G20 Summit And He’s Not Happy About It. Participants Are Relieved.
Both Dina Boluarte, Constitutional President of the Republic of Peru (2022- ), and Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, President of the Federative Republic of Brazil (2003-2011, 2023- ), are accomplishing a goal elusive since 24 February 2022 to most heads of state and heads of government.
They excluded Volodymyr Zelensky, President of Ukraine (2019- ), from a global gathering of heads of state and heads of government.
Previously, Narendra Modi, Prime Minister of the Republic of India (2014- ), despite enormous pressures, directly and indirectly from President Zelensky, excluded him from the G20 Leaders’ Summit in New Delhi, India, in September 2023.
This week and next, President Zelensky remains on the outside looking wearingly through the windows into two global gatherings whose individual and collective importance exponentially increased due to the 5 November 2024 election of Donald Trump to be the 47th President of the United States (2025-2029).
There will be no fatigue-wearing President Zelensky hustling the room- and distracting and extracting the political oxygen from the agenda crafted by the host country.
Lima, Peru, is hosting the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Economic Leaders’ Meeting (AELM) on 16/17 November 2024:
Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC): Australia, Brunei, Canada, Chile, China, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Papua New Guinea, Peru, Philippines, Russia, Singapore, Republic of Korea, Chinese Taipei (Taiwan), Thailand, United States, Vietnam.
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, is hosting the G20 Leaders’ Summit on 18/19 November 2024:
Group of 20 (G20): Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Republic of Korea, Russian Federation, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Turkiye, United Kingdom, United States.
President Zelensky is singularly focused towards seeking attention for himself at the expense of everyone and everything. He would unabashedly highjack both the APEC Meeting and G20 Summit- and not care a wit about insulting any of the participants.
For example, from recent media reporting: “President Volodymyr Zelensky suggested that each G20 leader demand that Putin return a thousand children. When asked how India could help in returning the children, the President replied: “To join the coalition for the return of children, to support the communiqué of the Peace Summit, because the third point there was about the return of children, to call Putin and tell him who he is and make him return the children. (Indian Prime Minister Narendra) Modi can do this, he has a lot of influence... To tell (Putin) directly: “Give me a thousand children, and I will return them to Ukraine.” This is a real step. He took tens of thousands, let Modi return a thousand. If every influential person like Modi can return a thousand children, then we will be able to return most of our children.” According to the President, the issue of returning children can be raised at the G20 meeting. “If twenty thousand Ukrainian children have been deported, then every leader of the G20 should take responsibility for returning a thousand children,” Zelensky said. He also noted that the International Criminal Court's warrant for the arrest of Vladimir Putin for kidnapping children is in force.”
For example, insulting the President of Brazil when the goal is to obtain an invitation to attend a global gathering he is hosting, is at best unproductive and at worst self-destructive. From media reporting: “President Volodymyr Zelensky criticized Brazil's and China's joint plan, calling it destructive. “You either support the war, or you don't support the war. If you don't support it, then help us stop Russia," Zelensky said. The president added that he offered to discuss peace proposals with Chinese and Brazilian leaders. President Volodymyr Zelensky criticized a peace initiative put forward by Brazil and China as “destructive” in an interview with Brazilian outlet Metropoles published on Sept. 12. “You either support the war, or you don't support the war. If you don't support it, then help us stop Russia. (Should we) just give up our land, forget that they are killing our people? What is the compromise in that? That's why I think it's destructive. It's just a political statement. How can you offer ‘here is our initiative’ without asking anything from us?” “Why did you suddenly decide that you should take Russia's side or be somewhere in the middle? In the middle of what?” During a visit to South Africa, Andriy Yermak, Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, reportedly asked Cyril Ramaphosa, President of South Africa, to “persuade” President Lula da Silva to invite President Zelensky to the G20 Leader’s Summit.
For example, President Zelensky refused to meet with United Nations (UN) Secretary General António Guterres after his visit to Kazan, Russian Federation, and a discussion with Vladimir Putin, President of the Russian Federation (2000-2008 and 2012- ). From the BBC: “The president [Zelensky] did not confirm his visit. After Kazan and after he shook hands with the war’s instigator and spent UN Day on the territory of the aggressor country, it would be somehow strange to host him here… During his visit, Guterres called for a “just peace” in Ukraine and reiterated his position to Putin that Russia's invasion of the country was in “violation of the United Nations Charter and international law.” The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine issued a statement: “This is a wrong choice that does not advance the cause of peace. It only damages the UN's reputation. The UN secretary general declined Ukraine's invitation to the first Global Peace Summit in Switzerland. He did, however, accept the invitation to Kazan from war criminal Putin.”
President Zelensky wants more attention, more money, more permissions, more support, more weapons. The members of APEC and the G20 have many issues to discuss, frame, and resolve. Issues relating to Ukraine are not one of them.
President Zelensky’s ability to “read the room” is diminishing. When the United States was impacted by hurricanes in 2024 which inflicted tens of billions of dollars in damages across the country, did President Zelensky request the United States government to redirect funds from Ukraine to United States taxpayers who incurred damages to their homes, lost their jobs, needed food, lost electricity, gas, water services? No, he did not. That was a mistake. He did not appreciate how wrong it was for United States taxpayers through the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) to fund a cooking performance in Ukraine.
For the government of Peru and for the government of Brazil, every participating head of state and head of government attending the APEC Meeting and the G20 Summit, respectively, will use the opportunity to discuss “what’s next for us?” with their counterparts. Trying to determine who has- or believes they have a “relationship” with Donald Trump. What they know going in is whatever they think they have, whatever they want to have, is likely not going to be what they will get or keep. Political lifespans in Trump World are unpredictable. They learned that painfully from 2017 to 2021.
For Ukraine, President Zelensky is struggling to conceptualize his desire for and marketing of a “just peace” for Ukraine and “victory plan” for Ukraine and “peace summits” for Ukraine are no longer the appropriate fuels powering the global dialogue about Ukraine. There is an issue bell curve, and he is on a downward glide path in terms of his marketing prowess. Justifiably or not, the global political trajectory continues a transition from one side winning to both sides ending the military conflict. Neither side will obtain what it wants.
Since 24 February 2022, with a trajectory of US$500 billion delivered, committed, and anticipated in commercial, economic, financial, humanitarian, military, societal, and political support to a Ukraine at war and a Ukraine in recovery, excluding the approximately US$320 billion in reserves of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation which remain frozen outside of the Russian Federation, and supposed to be allocated for the reconstruction of infrastructure in Ukraine damaged by the armed forces of the Russian Federation, leadership in capitals have retasked their focus from “winning” to “ending” the Russian Federation- Ukraine war.
The primary driving force? President-elect Trump. No head of state wants to enter office with a war, regardless of whether there is direct involvement or indirect involvement. Wars suck political oxygen from campaign promises. Wars suck financial oxygen from campaign promises. President-elect Trump plans to appoint a “peace” envoy for the Russian Federation-Ukraine war, not a “victory” envoy. The Trump-Vance Administration will provide political cover for other governments as the spending for Ukraine is a ballooning political issue for governments, most recently as exhibited in the Federal Republic of Germany.
President Trump anticipates the map of the territory of Ukraine in 2013 is unlikely, at least during his four-year term, to again be legitimized. Neither for him is a map in totality as it looked on 23 February 2022, the day prior to the armed forces of the Russian Federation entering further into Ukraine.
On 24 February 2022, the armed forces of the Russian Federation invaded and further invaded the territory of Ukraine in what Vladimir Putin, President of the Russian Federation (2000-2008 and 2012- ), defined as a Special Military Operation [SMO] then on 22 December 2022 he redefined as a war. The initial invasion of Ukraine by the armed forces of the Russian Federation was in part from the territory of Belarus.
The war between the Russian Federation and Ukraine did not commence on 24 February 2022. The roots began their trajectories on 20 February 2014 when the armed forces of the Russian Federation invaded the Crimean Peninsula and the area known as the Donbas Region (Donetsk Oblast and Luhansk Oblast).
For President Trump, the focus is the path of least resistance- not for the government of Ukraine, but for the government of the Russian Federation. Meaning, the approximately nineteen percent (19%) of the internationally-recognized territory of Ukraine occupied by the armed forces of the Russian Federation may well not be returned to the government of Ukraine.
President Trump will seek guarantees (and there will be debate as to what the word means in the Russian language and Ukrainian language) for the populations within the remaining territory of Ukraine to have commercial, economic, financial, and freedom-of-movement to access airports, ports, and railroads; and residents residing in or visiting areas within the internationally-recognized territories of Ukraine controlled by the armed forces of the Russian Federation be permitted to retain and obtain multiple passports (specifically Ukraine), be permitted unfettered access into and out of the territories, and retain their voting rights, pension rights (and receipt of payments) in Ukraine.
Ukraine membership in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) is not as important for Ukraine as is membership in the European Union (EU). President Trump feels this to be true and will impress upon President Zelensky that EU membership is the Golden Egg rather than continuing to pursue membership in NATO when even if Ukraine were to become a member of NATO- and there is no unanimity today to that question, Article Five of the NATO Charter does not require any NATO member to militarily come to the defense of Ukraine.
NATO: United States, United Kingdom, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, Finland, France, Iceland, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Albania, Lithuania, Bulgaria, Montenegro, Croatia, Czech Republic, Poland, Estonia, Romania, Germany, Slovakia, Greece, Slovenia, Hungary, Spain, Turkiye, Latvia, North Macedonia, Sweden.
European Union (EU): Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden.