Erdogan Or Zelensky: Whose UNGA Speech Most Anticipated? What Do They Want From One Another? What Does UNGA Need From Them?
Erdogan Or Zelensky: Whose UNGA Speech Most Anticipated?
What Do They Want From One Another?
One Has An “Airborne Embassy” Airline And The Other Wears T-Shirts.
The second-most anticipated remarks by a head of state will be Tuesday, 20 September 2022, during the hours 9:00 am to 2:45 pm, after the President of Colombia and before the President of Kyrgyzstan, when Recep Tayyip Erdogan, President of the Republic of Turkiye, will be the seventh head of state that day to stand behind the lectern and deliver remarks to the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA).
Will President Erdogan ascend and act deftly at the UNGA as he did and thus became the fulcrum around which revolved the thirty (30) country members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) at the June 2022 NATO Summit in Madrid, Spain?
The most anticipated remarks by a head of state are on Wednesday, 21 September 2022, during the hours 3:00 pm to 9:00 pm, after the President of Eswatini and before the President of Democratic Republic of the Congo, when Volodymyr Zelensky, President of Ukraine, will be the eleventh head of state during that time period to deliver remarks to the UNGA.
Will President Zelensky 1) Appear in person- and there is increasing support from governments for him to do so and 2) Will he demand assistance from and criticize (and identify) those governments he believes lacking in commitment or be appreciative for what has been provided when there is no requirement to provide anything? Will he focus upon the US$340 billion? Will he distill the hour-glass shaped relationship between what military equipment Ukraine wants versus what others believe Ukraine needs- distance, nearing of distance, then again distance. Unknown when the sands in the hourglass might complete their downward trajectory.
9/5/22- (English) Draft For Ukraine President Zelensky’s September 2022 Remarks To The United Nations General Assembly- What Might He Say In Twenty-Four Minutes
9/5/22- (Ukrainian) Начерки для виступу Президента України Зеленського на Генеральній Асамблеї ООН у вересні 2022 року – що він може сказати за двадцять чотири хвилини
Presidents Erdogan and Zelensky can demonstrably, unilaterally or bilaterally, impact the near to medium-term trajectory of the UNGA.
The two presidents met most recently August 2022 in Lviv, Ukraine. President Erdogan previously visited previously Kyiv, Ukraine, on 3 February 2022, to sign a free trade agreement with President Zelensky. President Erdogan will have arrived in New York City after his fourth meeting and multiple telephone calls since 24 February 2022 with Vladimir Putin, President of the Russian Federation.
What are the underlying dynamics of the bilateral relationship between Presidents Erdogan and Zelensky?
The President of Ukraine wants the President of Turkiye to lessen his country’s commercial, economic, military, and political engagement with the Russian Federation and increase its commercial, economic, military, and political engagement with Ukraine. If there is one ask by President Zelensky it will be for the government of Turkiye to support and implement robustly all sanctions imposed upon the Russian Federation by the United States and twenty-seven (27) country Brussels, Belgium-based European Union (EU). This includes seizing vessels owned by individuals subject to sanctions. Challenging for President Zelensky is an ever more transparent preference, which has not gone unnoticed by President Erdogan, that the governments of the United States, Canada, United Kingdom, Ukraine, and most of the EU would not be disappointed if President Erdogan is defeated for re-election in June 2023. The next general election in Ukraine is 21 July 2024 (Parliament) and 31 March 2024 (Presidential). The economic impact of what began on 24 February 2022 has further exacerbated pre-existing fractures between members of the EU who chafe at a requirement for unanimity in decision making. And while this fracturing is not the fault of Ukraine, what has been requested by Ukraine, delivered by members of EU, and impacted citizens of countries within the EU- some more so than others, has eroded comity among nations. President Zelensky is challenged too with crafting an acceptable, convincing argument to President Erdogan to agree to impose commercial and economic pain upon his citizens- including those who vote.
The President of Turkiye, who is seeking a third term in office, wants to maintain everything that he is doing and that includes expanding rather than contracting exports to the Russian Federation, imports from the Russian Federation, and provision of services (financial, tourism, infrastructure) with the Russian Federation. The government of Turkiye will not voluntarily emulate other governments as they agree to endure pain upon their populations as a cost to support Ukraine. For example, Istanbul, Turkiye-based Turkish Airlines continues to operate multiple flights per day to Moscow; and the ticket prices on those flights have increased in some instances more than 100%. President Erdogan believes critical-mass economic issues for the 85.3 million population and more than four million refugees (primarily from Syria), an 80% annual inflation rate thus far in 2022, and currency depreciation of the Turkish Lira since 24 February 2022 from 13.8 to 18.2 to the U.S. Dollar- with a two-year decline exceeding 50%, necessitate first decisions based upon self-preservation irrespective of the causes. There are officials within the government of Turkiye who believe the invasion of Ukraine by the armed forces of the Russian Federation has provided not to be missed commercial, economic, military, and political latitude, and thus an opportunity to leverage compliance or acquiescence from other countries, particularly United States, EU and NATO members to implement foreign policy decisions that absent a conflict impacting many countries, as the war between the Russian Federation and Ukraine does, would not have been tolerated by friends and foes- and resulted in the implementation of robust sanctions upon Turkiye. The economy of Turkiye has export and import benefits from both a weak Russian Federation and strong Russian Federation. President Erdogan believes his re-election campaign messaging benefits from the implementation of sanctions upon Turkiye.
The Erdogan Administration in Ankara, Turkiye, is unlikely to expand compliance with sanctions implemented by the United States and EU, even as the country is a member of NATO. Absent an extinction-level political event, the government of Turkiye will continue to expand its commercial, economic, political and military engagement with the government of the Russian Federation and with companies located within the Russian Federation. For Joseph Biden, President of the United States, sanctioning India-based companies, and sanctioning and further sanctioning Turkiye-based companies will be problematic as the Biden-[Kamala] Harris Administration seeks cooperation with both countries for issues not related to the Russian Federation or Ukraine.
What do delegates attending the UNGA want from President Erdogan? They hope he will in detail explain what the government of Turkiye has done, is doing, and will be doing to craft resolutions for issues with the EU and NATO (accession of Finland and Sweden- now with a new government perhaps more empathetic with Turkiye’s policies relating to individuals of Kurdish descent), conflicts including Armenia and Azerbaijan, Greece, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Kurdish populations, Russia, and Ukraine. They do not want to hear from an angry president, an accusatory president, a threatening president. They want to hear from a solutions president, an inclusive president. The modern Muslim head of state who accepts differences, embraces opportunities and role of bridge-builder in the same manner that the borders of Turkiye touch both the continents of Europe and Asia. The UNGA delegates want a humble Turkiye, not an arrogant Turkiye; they need a confident Turkiye, but with a confidence built upon connectivity rather than discontent.
What are the feelings toward President Zelensky by UNGA delegates? For impacted UNGA member countries, particularly fragile and smaller countries, these nexuses exist, as inaccurate as they may be: Thus far in 2022 increased prices for energy and food along with declining value of currencies in relation to the United States Dollar which is used to determine global commodity prices is related directly to the events that commenced on 24 February 2022, and the assistance to Ukraine from NATO member countries which permits the war to escalate and to continue. Ukraine needs to make a deal despite recent military successes and territorial gains. Ursula von der Leyen, President of the Brussels, Belgium-based European Commission (EC), the operational venue for members of the EU, shared recently that support for Ukraine “comes at a high cost, but our freedom, the international peace order, and democracy, is priceless.” Some governments, particularly those most impacted by increases in prices and decreasing value in currencies, might differ.
NOTE: There are two other presentations at the UNGA which have connectivity to both Ukraine and Turkiye. On Saturday, 24 September 2022, during the 9:00 am to 2:45 pm hours, in the eleventh position between the Head of Government of the Holy See and the Deputy Prime Minister of the Socialist Republic of Vietnam is the Deputy Prime Minister of the People’s Republic of China, and in the fifteenth position (between the Minister of Foreign Affairs of the United Mexican States and the Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Cuba) is Sergei Lavrov, Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation.