One Guarantee In Vilnius For Ukraine- There Will Be No Guarantee. Whatever Words Come From NATO Summit In Vilnius, There Is One Certainty- No Obligation Which Can’t Be Revised. Trust Remains An Issue.
Only One Guarantee In Vilnius For Ukraine- There Will Be No Guarantee.
Whatever Words Come From The NATO Summit In Vilnius, There Is One Certainty- No Obligation Which Can’t Be Revised.
Indecision Is A Right Of The Alliance. Indecision Is Not Always Weakness.
He May Not Have Meant To… President Zelensky Delivered A Primary Reason NATO Members Hesitant About Ukraine In The Alliance: No Confidence Ukraine Would Accept In Totality A Peace Treaty Signed With The Russian Federation Which Does Not Include Everything Ukraine Wants Rather Than Everything It Obtains When Document Is Signed.
“Peace scenario” absent Crimean Peninsula “not be victory. We cannot imagine Ukraine without Crimea. And while Crimea is under Russian occupation, it means only one thing: the war is not over yet.” Volodymyr Zelensky, President of Ukraine
This means unless the armed forces of the Russian Federation are removed from the territory of Ukraine- what is occupied, what is annexed, the government of Ukraine will not accept that the Russian Federation-Ukraine war has ceased. This belief will result in government of Ukraine absence from NATO membership because the country will want to continue to engage in a territorial conflict- regardless of the wording used to define it. And with NATO membership, the government of Ukraine would have an incentive to engage in conflict with the government of the Russian Federation if the armed forces of the Russian Federation remain in any territory of Ukraine.
His Message To EU, NATO, Other Countries, And United States Taxpayers? Continue Borrowing, Incurring Debt For As Long As Ukraine Wants.
“We need a very clear and understandable signal at the Vilnius summit that Ukraine can become an equal member of NATO after the war. This invitation to the alliance is the first, very practical step, it would be very important for us.” Volodymyr Zelensky, President of Ukraine
Concern by NATO leadership that the government of Ukraine as a member would immediately seek to invoke Article 5- and then not all NATO members would respond as desired by the government of Ukraine. That response could cause further ruptures in the alliance that the alliance would not want to test.
In what constellation was president Zelensky inhabiting where he believed NATO members would risk the lives of their armed forces for the government of Ukraine- to fight Russians? Absurd from the first declaration. But, that is what the government of Ukraine has wanted from 24 February 2022.
Never there be an Article 5-lite for Ukraine. Article 5 does not require any NATO member to risk its armed forces for another member.
Given trajectory of NATO support for the government of Ukraine during last sixteen months, there has been a cost to the government of Ukraine by refusing often to provide what the government of Ukraine “wanted” rather than what NATO believed government of Ukraine “needed.” Had “wanted” arrived when the government of Ukraine requested it, what is “needed” now might not have been required.
“Ukraine continues to work actively with all NATO allies to convince them that the time for clarity on Ukraine's membership in the Alliance has come.” Dmytro Kuleba, Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine
“After the war ends, it will be suicidal for Europe not to accept Ukraine into NATO because it will mean that the option of … war will remain open. The only way to shut the door for the Russian aggression against Europe and Euro Atlantic space as a whole is to take Ukraine in NATO, because Russia will not dare to repeat this experience again.” Dmytro Kuleba, Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine
“If the Alliance wants to be powerful and does not see its existence without Ukraine, it is fair that we want to get at least some modality of our future in NATO, some specific things. We are asking for such specific things. We are not talking about today’s membership, I emphasize once again: we are an adequate state and understand that during the war we cannot become a member of NATO, but we must be confident that after the war we will be. And this is exactly the signal we want to receive, that after the war Ukraine will be a member of NATO.” Volodymyr Zelensky, President of Ukraine
“There are definitely not one, not two, not even four countries that would like a broader statement, and right now, there is a dialogue between such countries and more cautious countries, and I hope it will end in a mutually acceptable way.” NATO summit in Vilnius “will not disappoint Ukrainians.” Gitanas Nausėda, President of Lithuania
Viktor Orbán, Prime Minister of Hungary, shared “impossible” for Ukraine to prevail against the Russian Federation. “[I am] “tired of countering all these meaningless arguments. It’s all just blah blah blah.” Dmytro Kuleba, Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine
Because President Zelensky Pushed Relentlessly, Berated, And Insulted NATO Members, What Had Been Unofficial Is Now Official.
President Zelensky’s “Threats” Not To Attend NATO Summit In Vilnius Were Never Serious- He Could Not Stay Away- Like A Catnip To A Cat. He Needs The Oxygen.
“If we are not acknowledged and given a signal in Vilnius, I believe there is no point for Ukraine to be at this summit.” Volodymyr Zelensky, President of Ukraine
Visits to Sofia, Bulgaria; Prague, Czech Republic; Bratislava, Slovakia; And Istanbul, Turkiye Will Not Change NATO Membership Process Trajectory.
Question: “Mr. President, are you going to make it easier for Ukraine to join NATO?” Answer: “No. Because they got to meet the same standards. So, I’m not going to make it easier. I think they've done everything relating to demonstrating the ability to coordinate militarily, but there's a whole issue of: Is their system secure? Is it non-corrupt? Does it meet all the standards every- every other nation in NATO does. I think they will. I think they can. But it's not automatic.” Joseph Biden, President of the United States
“Ukraine’s future lies within the Euro-Atlantic family,” and “all Allies agree that it will become a member of the Alliance.” Jens Stoltenberg, Secretary General of NATO. NOTE: Mr. Stoltenberg is mistaken, and not for the first time, espousing that all NATO members support membership for Ukraine.
NATO Members Will Not Permit President Zelensky To Tell Them What To Do, When To Do It, How To Do It, And Make Them Responsible For Paying For It.
His Politically Python-Like Grip Upon Elected And Appointed Government Leadership Is Receding.
If, however, the armed forces of Ukraine dispatch the armed forces of the Russian federation from the territory of Ukraine, then elected and appointed government leadership will again trek to Kyiv and invite president Zelensky to visit their capitals.
Sixteen months later, the Russian Federation-Ukraine war from 2022 resembles the Russian Federation-Ukraine war from 2014- suggesting a conflict heading to freezing rather than defrosting. Less urgency, less importance for an increasing number of governments and their taxpayers. Government leadership in NATO countries is increasingly out of sync with their taxpayers.
Suspicions toward government of Ukraine, its veracity, candor, honesty are increasingly in focus: Nordstream 2 explosion near coast of Germany; missile landing in Poland- which Ukraine vehemently denied was theirs- when it was; car bomb murder in Moscow of daughter of Russian Federation citizen; and even the destruction of a dam in Ukraine (the source of which should have never been subject to debate, but it was questioned).
The money trail… European Union (EU) focuses upon loans to Ukraine. United States focuses upon grants, gifts. The EU leadership wants their taxpayers made whole. U.S. leadership want their taxpayers to borrow and be in debt. The “anything Zelensky wants” adopted manifesto has long since eroded. The celebritization of Ukraine, war, Zelensky has lessened. What the actor Sean Penn thinks is irrelevant (if it ever was not).
Russian Federation-Ukraine Negotiations By October 2022? If So, Probably In Turkiye And Hosted By Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, President Of The Republic Of Turkiye (2014- ).
For President Zelensky he is in the position a television actor, a producer of a television program dreads most- a decline in ratings.
He believes a “threat” not to attend the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) Summit in Vilnius, Lithuania, on 11/12 July 2023 in Vilnius, Lithuania, has meaning to heads of state and heads of government. It does not. Most would prefer that he remain in Kyiv.
NATO Members (31): United States, United Kingdom, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, Finland, France, Iceland, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Albania, Lithuania, Bulgaria, Montenegro, Croatia, Czech Republic, Poland, Estonia, Romania, Germany, Slovakia, Greece, Slovenia, Hungary, Spain, Turkiye, Latvia, and North Macedonia. The Kingdom of Sweden awaits approval from the governments of the Republic of Hungary and the Republic of Turkiye.
On 24 February 2022, the armed forces of the Russian Federation invaded and further invaded the territory of Ukraine in what Vladimir Putin, President of the Russian Federation (2000-2008 and 2012- ), defined as a Special Military Operation [SMO] then on 22 December 2022 he redefined as a war. The initial invasion of Ukraine by the armed forces of the Russian Federation was in part from the territory of Belarus.
The war between the Russian Federation and Ukraine did not commence on 24 February 2022. The roots began their trajectories on 20 February 2014 when the armed forces of the Russian Federation invaded the Crimean Peninsula and the area known as the Donbas Region (Donetsk Oblast and Luhansk Oblast).
The government of Ukraine believes NATO should have approved membership for Ukraine prior to 2014, and then in 2014, and in before 24 February 2022. If the government of Ukraine would have been a member of NATO, the government of Ukraine would have invoked Article 5 of the NATO Charter and sought the deployment of member equipment and personnel into the territory of Ukraine to engage directly with the armed forces of the Russian Federation.
The government of Ukraine presents that had Ukraine been a member of NATO prior to 2014 or prior to 24 February 2022, the armed forces of the Russian Federation would not have invaded because Article 5 would have been dissuasive. The government of Ukraine may be correct. The issue now is moot.
However, Article 5 does not require any NATO member to deploy anything anywhere. Article 5 does not require any member to invoke a military response. From NATO:
“In 1949, the primary aim of the North Atlantic Treaty – NATO’s founding treaty – was to create a pact of mutual assistance to counter the risk that the Soviet Union would seek to extend its control of Eastern Europe to other parts of the continent. Every participating country agreed that this form of solidarity was at the heart of the Treaty, effectively making Article 5 on collective defence a key component of the Alliance. Article 5 provides that if a NATO Ally is the victim of an armed attack, each and every other member of the Alliance will consider this act of violence as an armed attack against all members and will take the actions it deems necessary to assist the Ally attacked.
Article 5- “The Parties agree that an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all and consequently they agree that, if such an armed attack occurs, each of them, in exercise of the right of individual or collective self-defence recognized by Article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations, will assist the Party or Parties so attacked by taking forthwith, individually and in concert with the other Parties, such action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force, to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area. Any such armed attack and all measures taken as a result thereof shall immediately be reported to the Security Council. Such measures shall be terminated when the Security Council has taken the measures necessary to restore and maintain international peace and security.”
This article is complemented by Article 6, which stipulates: “For the purpose of Article 5, an armed attack on one or more of the Parties is deemed to include an armed attack: on the territory of any of the Parties in Europe or North America, on the Algerian Departments of France2, on the territory of Turkey or on the Islands under the jurisdiction of any of the Parties in the North Atlantic area north of the Tropic of Cancer; on the forces, vessels, or aircraft of any of the Parties, when in or over these territories or any other area in Europe in which occupation forces of any of the Parties were stationed on the date when the Treaty entered into force or the Mediterranean Sea or the North Atlantic area north of the Tropic of Cancer.”
With the invocation of Article 5, Allies can provide any form of assistance they deem necessary to respond to a situation. This is an individual obligation on each Ally and each Ally is responsible for determining what it deems necessary in the particular circumstances.
This assistance is taken forward in concert with other Allies. It is not necessarily military and depends on the material resources of each country. It is therefore left to the judgment of each individual member country to determine how it will contribute. Each country will consult with the other members, bearing in mind that the ultimate aim is to “to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area.
At the drafting of Article 5 in the late 1940s, there was consensus on the principle of mutual assistance, but fundamental disagreement on the modalities of implementing this commitment. The European participants wanted to ensure that the United States would automatically come to their assistance should one of the signatories come under attack; the United States did not want to make such a pledge and obtained that this be reflected in the wording of Article 5.”
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