The “Optic” Context Of Today’s Multi-Nation Prisoner Exchange. Good For Turkiye, Message For Ukraine, Opportunities For Russia.
Today, the government of Turkiye is again at the fulcrum of an important multi-lateral moment. Most significantly, reinforcing its relationship with the government of the Russian Federation. Also important was the ability of Recep Tayyip Erdogan, President of the Republic of Turkiye (2014- ), to compartmentalize government-to-government bilateral and multilateral issues towards achieving a goal.
Seven governments made decisions they would have preferred not to make because those decisions had problematic domestic political implications. For varying reasons, they made them anyway.
The majority of the governments have interlocking membership in commercial, economic, financial, political, and military organizations. While the government of Turkiye did neither released nor received prisoners, the country was demonstrably involved in the prisoner exchange process:
G7 (Germany, United States)
G20 (Germany, Russian Federation, Turkiye, United States)
NATO (Germany, Norway, Poland, Slovenia, Turkiye, United States)
Shanghai Cooperation Organization (Belarus, Russian Federation)
United Nations (Belarus, Germany, Poland, Norway, Russian Federation (Security Council permanent member), Slovenia, Turkiye, United States (Security Council permanent member)
The prisoner exchanges amongst the government of the Russian Federation and government of the United States, along with Germany, Poland, Slovenia, Norway, and Belarus, are consequential for reasons including:
Seven governments made decisions they would have preferred not to make because those decisions had problematic domestic political implications. For varying reasons, they made them anyway.
The government of the Russian Federation is signaling a preference in the 5 November 2024 presidential election in the United States. So too are the other participating governments showing a preference to prevent a return by Donald Trump, 45th President of the United States (2017-2021) to The White House.
The preference is for Kamala Harris, Vice President of the United States (2021- ), to be elected the 47th President of the United States. Donald Trump will be angry that the prisoner exchanges were successful during the last 180 days of the Biden-Harris Administration (2021-2025). However, he will also take credit- that the government of the Russian Federation is far more fearful of a return by Donald Trump to The White House- so the deal today is far worse for the government of the United States than he would have obtained from the government of the Russian Federation.
The government of the Russian Federation is signaling its openness to negotiate a settlement to the war with Ukraine. This places pressure upon the government of Ukraine, specifically Volodymyr Zelensky, President of Ukraine (2019- ), to replace its “peace summits” with “negotiations” as the “peace summits” suggest increasingly an effort by the government of Ukraine to avoid face-to-face negotiations with the government of the Russian Federation.
Strengthens the positions of the governments of Brasil, China, India, and Turkiye that a settlement to the Russian Federation-Ukraine war must be negotiated- and the government of Ukraine cannot dictate with whom it negotiates or the terms of negotiations. If the government of the Russian Federation shows-up in Brasilia, Beijing, New Delhi or Istanbul for a negotiation, the government of Ukraine must be there too.
Creates a new dynamic for the annual United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) in New York City in September 2024. The focus will be on “negotiations” for conflicts.
The 18/19 November 2024 G20 Leaders’ Summit in Rio de Janeiro, Brasil, will have an important dynamic- either Vice President Kamala Harris will be President-elect Kamala Harris, or Joseph Biden, 46th President of the United States (2021-2025) will be attending his last G20 Leaders’ Summit. If there is a President-elect Harris, will President Biden ask her to attend the G20 Leaders’ Summit in his place? Unknown- and the most anticipated… will Vladimir Putin, President of the Russian Federation (2000-2008 and 2012- ), attend the G20 Leaders’ Summit.