President Erdogan Of Turkiye May Need To Deploy Turkish Naval Forces Destroyers/Frigates From The Black Sea Area Command To Protect Commodity Vessels Arriving, Loading, And Departing BSGI-Authorized Ports In Ukraine- Chornomorsk, Odesa, Pivdennyi, and Yuzhny And Russian Federation- Novorossiysk, Tamen, and Togliatti

President Erdogan’s 114 Words To President Putin And President Zelensky

Russian Federation Has Legitimate Complaints- Moving Their Commodities, Receiving Payment For Their Commodities.  One Issue Cannot Be Resolved- Forcing Anyone To Purchase Commodities From The Russian Federation.  Purchasers Do not Solely Use Price As A Reason To Purchase- Reputational Issues, Political Issues, Moral Issues.  Mechanics For Transactions Can Be Changed, Emotions Not So Much.

Delinkage May Be Smart Politics For The Russian Federation- Projecting Responsibility Even Though Issues Of Fairness.  Hungry People Do Not Care About Fairness- They Want To Eat.  Some Countries Where Russian Federation Seeks Influence.

The El Niño Weather Disruption Could In 2023 Lower Global Crop Yields- Meaning More Hungry People 

Black Sea Grain Initiative (BSGI) Expires Again On 22 July 2023  

Turkiye Expected To Negotiate Return Of Approximately Sixty Merchant Vessels Stranded At Ports In Ukraine

The armed forces of Ukraine have commenced their June 2023 offensives and defensives.  The armed forces of the Russian Federation have commenced their June 2023 offensives and defensives. 

These offensives and defensives are expected to continue through September 2023, perhaps through October 2023.  The territorial landscape at that time will determine the trajectory of negotiations- regardless of the preference of officials in the capital Kyiv and in the capital Moscow.

• On 24 February 2022, the armed forces of the Russian Federation invaded and further invaded the territory of Ukraine in what Vladimir Putin, President of the Russian Federation (2000-2008 and 2012- ), defined as a Special Military Operation [SMO] then on 22 December 2022 he redefined as a war.  The initial invasion of Ukraine by the armed forces of the Russian Federation was in part from the territory of Belarus.   

• The war between the Russian Federation and Ukraine did not commence on 24 February 2022.  The roots began their trajectories on 20 February 2014 when the armed forces of the Russian Federation invaded the Crimean Peninsula and the area known as the Donbas Region (Donetsk Oblast and Luhansk Oblast).

One potential casualty of the June 2023 decisions by the government of Ukraine and the government of the Russian Federation is the Black Sea Grain Initiative implemented on 27 July 2022 from negotiations by the government of the Russian Federation, government of Turkiye, government of Ukraine, and the New York, New York-based United Nations (UN).  The most recent extension expires on 22 July 2023.

• “The Joint Coordination Centre was established under the Black Sea Grain Initiative in Istanbul on 27 July 2022. It comprises senior representatives from the Russian Federation, Türkiye, Ukraine and United Nations and its role is to enable the safe transportation, by merchant ships, of grain and other foodstuffs and fertilizers from three key Ukrainian ports in the Black Sea to the rest of the world.”  The first shipment of over 26,000 tons of Ukrainian food under a Black Sea Grain Initiative was cleared to proceed on 3 August, towards its destination in Lebanon.  LINK: https://www.un.org/en/black-sea-grain-initiative/vessel-movements

In June 2023 reported by both governments with expected denials by both governments of military operations surrounding and within the Black Sea, which has borders with the Bulgaria (EU member), Georgia, Romania (EU and NATO member), Russian Federation, Turkiye (NATO member), and Ukraine. 

• North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO): United States, United Kingdom, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, Finland, France, Iceland, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Albania, Lithuania, Bulgaria, Montenegro, Croatia, Czech Republic, Poland, Estonia, Romania, Germany, Slovakia, Greece, Slovenia, Hungary, Spain, Turkiye, Latvia, and North Macedonia. The Kingdom of Sweden awaits approval from the governments of the Republic of Hungary and the Republic of Turkiye.

• European Union (EU): Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, and Sweden.

Turkiye has the longest border along the Black Sea while Romania and Bulgaria border the north-south westernmost coast of the Black Sea from Ukraine to Turkiye. 

If a vessel wanted to avoid transiting the center of the Black Sea from a port in Ukraine to the entrance of the Bosporus Strait in Turkiye, the route would follow the coast of Ukraine-Romania-Bulgaria-Turkiye. 

The route would be longer by distance than transiting a straight line from a port in Ukraine to the entrance of the Bosporus Strait and then through it to the Sea of Marmara and onward to the Aegean Sea, Mediterranean Sea (an entrance to the Suez Canal), and Atlantic Ocean.

Re-elected on 28 May 2023 to a final five-year term, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, President of the Republic of Turkiye (2014- ), may need to cajole President Putin and Volodymyr Zelensky, President of Ukraine (2019- ), into agreeing to a cessation of military activities in and around ports in Ukraine and the Russian Federation which are listed for loading commodities permitted by the Black Sea Grain Initiative. 

If President Putin does not agree- and not agree to extend the Black Sea Grain Initiative, and if President Zelensky does not agree to forgo military activities within the Black Sea, then President Erdogan may need to declare to the government of the Russian Federation and to the government of Ukraine that Turkish Naval Forces of the Black Sea Area Command will henceforth be providing escorts for both inbound vessels and outbound vessels. 

This means a Turkish Naval Forces destroyer/frigate of the Black Sea Area Command on the port side of a commodity vessel and a Turkish Naval Forces destroyer/frigate of the Black Sea Area Command on the starboard side of a commodity vessel entering and exiting ports in Ukraine.  The taxpayers of Turkiye would be funding this water-based highway.

President Erdogan’s message to President Putin and President Zelensky could be: “Turkiye respects its bilateral relations with the peoples and governments of the Russian Federation and Ukraine.  If you want to fight amongst yourselves, so be it.  However, when your fight impacts the ability of other countries to feed their people, that right neither of you must subject upon the world.  The government of Turkiye, through its use of naval assets, will provide necessary transit corridors for commodity-laden vessels to move unimpeded within the Black Sea.  If the armed forces of the Russian Federation and the armed forces of Ukraine want to test that resolve, then the second-largest armed forces of the NATO alliance is prepared for that moment.  Do not test us.  Do what is correct.” 

LINK TO COMPLETE ANALYSIS IN PDF FORMAT

References 

Bloomberg News (6/13/23): The arrival of the first El Niño in almost four years foreshadows new damage to a fragile global economy as the world struggles to recover from Covid and the war in Ukraine grinds on. It may turn into the costliest El Niño cycle since meteorologists started keeping track.

Daily Sabah (12 June 2023): The U.N. chief expressed concern about Russia not renewing the Black Sea Grain Initiative on July 17.  Moscow has been threatening to walk away from the deal known as the Black Sea Grain Initiative – brokered by the United Nations and Türkiye in July last year – if obstacles to its own grain and fertilizer shipments are not removed.  "I am concerned, and we are working hard in order to make sure that it will be possible to maintain the Black Sea initiative and at the same time that we are able to proceed with our work to facilitate Russian exports," Secretary-General Antonio Guterres told reporters on Monday.  To convince Russia to agree to the Black Sea grain deal, a three-year memorandum of understanding was struck at the same time under which U.N. officials agreed to help Russia with its own food and fertilizer exports.  While Russian exports of food and fertilizer are not subject to Western sanctions imposed after the February 2022 invasion of Ukraine, Moscow says restrictions on payments, logistics and insurance have amounted to a barrier to shipments.  Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Vershinin said on Saturday that Russia "cannot be satisfied with how this memorandum is being implemented," the TASS news agency reported. He was speaking after meeting the top U.N. trade official Rebeca Grynspan in Geneva on Friday.  Among the demands put forward by Russia are the resumption of its ammonia exports via a pipeline to Ukraine's port of Pivdennyi, and the reconnection of the Russian Agricultural Bank (Rosselkhozbank) to the SWIFT international payment system.  The United Nations has helped boost Russian exports of food and fertilizers, facilitating a steady flow of ships to its ports and lower freight and insurance rates, a U.N. spokesperson said on Friday.  U.N. officials and analysts warned that a failure to extend the Black Sea Grain Initiative could hurt countries in Africa, the Middle East and parts of Asia that rely on Ukrainian wheat, barley, vegetable oil and other affordable food products, especially as drought takes a toll. The deal helped lower prices of food commodities like wheat over the last year, but that relief has not been reflected on kitchen tables.  Ukraine can send its food by land through Europe so that it wouldn't be completely cut off from world markets, but those routes have a lower capacity than sea shipments and have stirred disunity in the European Union.

Daily Sabah (12 June 2023): Russia Sunday accused Ukrainian forces of attacking – albeit unsuccessfully – one of its naval ships with six high-speed drone boats as the vessel patrolled major natural gas pipelines in the Black Sea.  The claim comes just weeks after Moscow said another Russian warship, Ivan Hurs, had been attacked unsuccessfully by Ukrainian uncrewed speedboats in the Black Sea, on the approaches to the Bosporus.  The warship had been protecting the TurkStream and Blue Stream gas pipelines – which carry gas from Russia to Türkiye, partly across the Black Sea.  "Ukraine's armed forces made an unsuccessful attempt to attack the Black Sea Fleet's Priazovye ship," Russia’s Defense Ministry said Sunday.  The Priazovye reconnaissance vessel was carrying out "monitoring of the situation and ensuring security along the routes of the TurkStream and Blue Stream gas pipelines in the southeastern part of the Black Sea," the ministry said.  Ukraine attacked in the early hours of Sunday about 300 kilometers (186.41 miles) southeast of Sevastopol, the headquarters of Russia's Black Sea fleet on the Russian-annexed Crimean peninsula, the ministry said.  The Russian military destroyed all the speedboats, and the ship didn’t sustain any damage, the ministry said. The claim could not be independently verified, and Ukrainian officials made no immediate comment.  A remotely piloted U.S. military aircraft called the RQ-4 Global Hawk was conducting reconnaissance in the Black Sea at the time of the attack, Moscow said.  "The Black Sea Fleet ship 'Priazovye' continues to carry out its assigned tasks," the Russian Defense Ministry said.  Unexplained explosions last September ruptured the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines bringing gas from Russia under the Baltic Sea to Germany.  After losing the use of its Baltic Sea pipelines, Russia is keen that Türkiye should become even more of a hub for Russian energy exports.  TurkStream carries gas westward from Russia's Taman peninsula across the width of the Black Sea to a point west of the Bosporus on the coast of European Türkiye.  The pipeline was formally launched with a capacity of 31.5 billion cubic meters per year in January 2020. The pipeline, which allows Moscow to bypass Ukraine as a transit route to Europe, carries Russian gas to southern Europe through Türkiye.  Blue Stream, however, crosses the eastern Black Sea from north to south, making landfall in the Turkish port of Samsun, around 700 kilometers east of the Bosporus by sea.  Meanwhile, Russian gas producer Gazprom on Monday said a week of maintenance work on the TurkStream pipeline had ended as scheduled.  Gas flows in the pipeline had been switched off on June 5.

Ukraine Business News (6/5/23): Ukraine is preparing for sea exports without a grain agreement and will compensate war-damaged ships. The Ministry of Infrastructure reported that the government had approved a procedure for indemnifying civilian vessels entering its ports for damages. Launching the damage compensation mechanism will allow charterers and shipowners to continue to enter Ukrainian ports regardless of the grain agreement’s status. Compensation will be provided to the shipowner whose insurer has refused in writing to indemnify damage caused by the war. Only shipowners who have concluded an insurance contract or a P&I (Protection and Indemnity) policy under the procedure established by the legislation of Ukraine or another state will have the right to compensation. To receive compensation, the shipowner can submit a specified package of documents to the Ministry of Infrastructure no later than 90 calendar days from the date of receipt of their insurer’s refusal to pay. Ukraine has UAH 20B ($545M) to pay such compensation. 

Ukraine Business News (6/5/23): In May, the total export of agricultural products from Ukraine decreased by 3% compared to April, to 5.1 million tons, according to the agricultural association. It is noted that the grain corridor has become beset with difficulties as an export channel. In May, the Russians stopped the operation of sea exports, did not allow new vessels to pass through the corridor, and, even after the grain corridor resumed operation, significantly hindered its process. These are the reasons why only 1.3 million tons of agricultural products were exported through the grain corridor in May, which is 26% of the monthly export. In March, almost four million tons of products were exported through this channel. In May, compared to April, the export of grain crops decreased by 11% to 3.5 million tons. Sunflower oil exports fell by 14% to 484,100 tons, while cake exports increased by 70% to 445,000 tons.

The Maritime Executive (2 June 2023): Maritime interests are again caught in the crossfire of the war between Russia and Ukraine. There are new reports of shelling in ports on both sides of the conflict as well as renewed efforts by Russia at blocking the ships for the grain exports from Ukrainian ports. The lower house of the Russian Parliament State Duma this week also adopted a law denouncing a Russian-Ukrainian treaty governing the joint use of the Sea of Azov and the Kerch Strait.  Videos surfaced on social media on Friday morning showing explosions in the port city of Berdyansk on the Sea of Azov in the annexed areas of Crimea in eastern Ukraine. Members of the Russian-installed government took to the Telegram social media channel blaming Ukraine for the explosions saying the city and specifically the port area was being shelled.  Reports said that Russian-controlled ships had recently arrived in the port to remove cargoes of grain and metals stored in the port and looted from Ukraine. It was unclear if the shelling or missiles was directed at the ships, but on Telegram the officials showed pictures saying the ships had fled the port for their safety. 

Ukraine Business News (2 June 2023): Earlier this week, Ukraine accused Russia of damaging areas in the port of Odesa as Russia increased its attacks with missiles and drones across the country. Parts of the Port of Odesa were reportedly set on fire after a drone attack reported on Monday with officials highlighting that Odesa’s port is part of the grain deal which seeks to protect port infrastructure and provide safe corridors for the exports.  Ukraine continues to say that despite the recent agreement to extend the grain deal for two months that Russia is taking actions to block the exports. Data from the Joint Coordination Center (JCC) in Istanbul shows that no ships have been permitted to proceed inbound to Ukraine for the past two days. Only one ship a day this week has departed from the ports of Odessa and Chornomorsk loaded with foodstuff exports. The UN reports since May 24 that the number of inspection teams at the JCC has been reduced from three to two.  “The Russian Federation has informed the JCC of its decision to limit registrations to the port of Yuzhny/Pivdennyi as long as ammonia is not exported. And currently, it is not,” a UN spokesperson said during a briefing in New York on June 1. “The limited registrations and reduced inspection teams contributed to the drop of the average daily inspection rate down to three. This is a very serious situation.”  Separately, Reuters is also quoting sources saying that the Russian port of Taman on the peninsula separating the Black Sea and Sea of Azov is likely going to suspend shipments of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG). The unmanned sources cited the increasing danger from drones and the highly explosive nature of the gas exports to the news agency. According to Reuters, last year the complex shipped 328,000 tonnes of Russian and Kazakh LPG.  These moves come as the Russian Parliament moved to end a 2003 treaty between the two countries that guaranteed free passage for Russian and Ukrainian merchant and naval vessels in the Sea of Azov and the Kerch Strait. Earlier this year, President Vladimir Putin signaled Russian intention to denounce the treaty. In May, Putin submitted the treaty denunciation bill in the lower house and appointed Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs Mikhail Galuzin to oversee the review process by the Federal Assembly.  “With the ongoing war and subsequent Russian control in Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson regions, it has given rise to a fundamentally new situation around the Sea of Azov and the Kerch Strait. The shorelines of the water bodies now fully belong to Russia. In this regard, Russia had to terminate the treaty now that Ukraine has lost the status of a littoral state with respect to the aforementioned maritime zones,” Galuzin said justifying the act.  In February, Kyiv terminated its cooperation with Russia on the Sea of Azov, citing blatant violations of the treaty conditions. Ukraine accused Russia of treating the Sea of Azov as a de facto inland sea, usurping the rights and jurisdiction of Ukraine as a coastal state to the water body. Experts said that the denunciation of the treaty is likely to jeopardize the operations of Ukraine’s ports in the affected regions, further straining the Black Sea grain export deal.