Important Because Was Not Necessary: Erdogan Scores Another First Reinforcing His Ukraine-Russia Strategy. Putin, Zelensky Agree For Turkish Military Aircraft To Depart KBP.
Erdogan Scores Another First Reinforcing His Ukraine-Russia Cooperative Strategy. President Putin Agreed And Ukraine Airport Opens For Two Turkish Military Aircraft To Depart KBP. Important Because Was Not Necessary.
Adds To Foundation For Putin-Zelensky Meeting In Ankara.
Why Significant? There was no urgency for the return of the military aircraft. No issues for the crew who were residing comfortably at the Embassy of Turkiye in the capital of Kyiv.
Meaning that President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, President of the Republic of Turkiye, and Vladimir Putin, President of the Russian Federation, agreed that while there was no urgency, the repatriation of the aircraft presented an opportunity for the Russian Federation to implement changes to the conflict dynamic to represent a moment of stability. An interest in compromising which is an essential component for negotiation.
The gesture by President Putin is also a reward to President Erdogan for his and Turkiye-based companies continued commercial, economic, and political engagement with the public and private sectors in the Russian Federation.
Shows too, government of the Russian Federation flexibility- which is important as foundation for discussions, negotiations. Shows too, the government of Ukraine recognizing benefits of trilateral, though indirect, cooperation.
For the government of Ukraine, the repatriation of the aircraft removes an irritant- one less issue. However, the event also provides a perhaps unwanted stability when important for the government of Ukraine to demonstrate to those governments (and their taxpayers who are borrowing funds) providing commercial, economic, financial, humanitarian, and military support to Ukraine that decisions by the armed forces of the Russian Federation since 24 February 2022 have made impossible “stability” and “business as usual” and “normal” anywhere within the territory of Ukraine.
On 24 February 2022 the armed forces of the Russian Federation invaded and further invaded the territory of Ukraine.
While a re-opening of Ukraine airspace to military aircraft is not happening, there may be an opportunity for President Erdogan, President Putin, and Volodymyr Zelensky, President of Ukraine, to forge a trilateral agreement to permit limited commercial (passenger) flights on Turkish Airlines from Boryspil International Airport (KBP) and Danylo Halytskyi International Airport (LWO) in city of Lviv, near the borders with Poland and Slovakia.
Turkish Airlines operates flights from Istanbul Airport (IST) to Vnukovo International Airport (VKO) in the capital, Moscow, Russian Federation. As many as five (5) daily non-stop flights from IST to VKO and up to eleven (11) flights listed as connecting to VKO from the capital, Ankara (ESB), and from the tourist resort area of Antalya (AYT) using Airbus 320 aircraft, Airbus 330 aircraft, and Boeing 777 aircraft. Turkish Airlines had also operated, but has since suspended, flights from IST to Minsk International Airport (MSQ) in the capital of Belarus.
If a partial re-opening of Ukraine airspace is implemented, the groundwork continues to develop further lanes of cooperation, accommodation, and resolution for what remains most important- ending the war on the territory of Ukraine.
For President Erdogan, he adds another layer of accomplishment to his Ukraine and Russian Federation portfolio. Next up for him? Traveling in the Boeing 747-8ZV BBJ (TC-TRK) presidential aircraft (an “Airborne Embassy”) from Ankara to Moscow and then from Moscow to Kyiv and then returning to Ankara.
The mission: extend invitations to Presidents Putin and Zelensky to meet in Ankara. Likely President Putin would accept. For President Zelensky, more of a challenge- but he will receive enormous pressure from those supporting Ukraine to participate. If he refuses, and President Putin arrives to Ankara, to the Presidential Complex, and there is an empty chair in the conference room… that will have robust consequences for President Zelensky. He must be viewed as willing to meet, to discuss. That does not mean he must be willing to agree to anything. He must, however, be prepared to meet without the government of the Russian Federation agreeing in advance to the armed forces of the Russian Federation departing the territory of Ukraine. A cease fire during the meeting, absolutely the government of the Russian Federation should agree to it and the government of Ukraine should require it.
Question Now: The first heads of government (Prime Ministers of Czech Republic, Poland, And Slovenia) to visit Kyiv arrived on 15 March 2022 after enduring a ten-hour (10) train journey from Poland to meet with President Zelensky.
Who will be the first head of state or head of government to now travel on their civilian aircraft from their respective capital directly to KBP? Watch for President Emmanuel Macron, President of the Republic of France.
Visitors to Kyiv since 15 March 2022: Fourteen presidents (two twice), thirteen prime ministers (four twice, one three times), two chancellors, three deputy prime minister, fifteen foreign ministers (some more than once), one U.S. secretary of state (twice), three secretaries (ministers) of defense, on attorney general, president of European Commission (EC)(twice), president of the European Council (EC), president of European Parliament (EP), Secretary-General of the United Nations (twice). Each of these individuals, accompanied by their respective staff and security detail, traveled from Poland into Ukraine by train, in a VIP carriage complete with bedrooms and meeting rooms.
From Media Reporting: “On February 24, 2022, the two A400M Turkish aircraft flew to Kyiv-Boryspil International Airport (KBP) shortly after midnight. The first aircraft departed at 17:00 local time (1400GMT) and the second one at 17:05 local time (1405GMT). According to the Turkish Minister of Defense, they were delivering humanitarian supplies and were supposed to repatriate Turkish nationals. However, with the invasion erupting later that day and the closure of Ukraine’s airspace, the two military transport aircraft rested on the tarmac of Boryspil for the past ten months. The crew members found refuge at the Turkish Embassy in Kyiv.”
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