If President Trump Is Re-Elected On 3 November 2020, The Hottest Ticket In The World Will Be To G20 Leaders’ Summit In Riyadh On 21/22 November 2020
November G20 In Saudi Arabia Consequential For Leaders If President Trump Re-Elected
Washington Wants A Non-Virtual Event
The Hottest Ticket On The Planet
Will President Trump Attend If He Loses?
Countries Rate How President Trump Feels About Them- Hot, Medium, Cold, Frigid
One country is the subject of substantive, direct and indirect, official and unofficial pressures to host, in person rather than virtually, a once-per-year event. Those pressures are not originating from within the country, but rather from abroad- 6,749 (twelve hours by air) miles away. For the country, acceding to the requests may provide benefits.
If the outcome of the 3 November 2020 presidential election in the United States is known by 20 November 2020 and President Donald J. Trump is re-elected, then for heads of state and heads of government the hottest ticket on the planet will be for the G20 Leaders’ Summit scheduled for 21 November 2020 and 22 November 2020 Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.
Why? Because the leaders will want (and some will need) to use the moments with President Trump to engage, re-engage, or a combination of each, with the person who will occupy the Oval Office and determine a trajectory for much of the industrialized planet until 12:00 pm on 20 January 2025. They will have to manage that relationship for another 1,460 days.
Important to note that President Trump’s first international destination was to Saudi Arabia on 20 May 2017 to 22 May 2017 where he met with King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud and then Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) who the following month was appointed Crown Prince and then also appointed Deputy Prime Minister.
Unknown if President Trump loses re-election would he participate in the G20 Leaders’ Summit. He neither respects nor likes losers and expectedly would not want to be at a gathering where participants, particularly those he does not like, view him as a loser and lame-duck. That said, he remains president from 3 November 2020 to 12:00 pm on 20 January 2021, so there are decisions of consequence for him to implement, particularly those which may enhance his legacy.
NOTE: There remains the possibility that President Trump will also seek to host (perhaps virtually) in advance of the G20 Leaders’ Summit the postponed G7 Leaders’ Summit (Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, United Kingdom, United States) scheduled first for June 2020 in Florida at Trump National Doral Miami and then at the presidential retreat Camp David located in Maryland’s Catoctin Mountain Park.
Heads of government and heads of state may not always agree with President Trump, but there is an appreciation for some of his objectives. The problem, however, is for most leaders any sound objective(s) often contain challenging domestic political and financial costs to them.
The leaders also remain keenly aware that President Trump defines loyalty as them to him; and even when he shows appreciation- it may be terrifyingly elusive and brief. He can turn on those whom he has just turned to.
Many in leadership don’t like him and don’t want to be viewed as helping him. As one head of government shared: “President Trump’s like the vegetable you didn’t like as a child, but your mother always put on the table again and again and again. Eventually, you give in and swallow it just to move on. But, you continue to dislike the vegetable.”
The leaders view diplomacy in starkly different terms from President Trump- believing his definition of diplomacy is defined by threats, bullying, intimidation, striking, coercion, bribery, and transaction (sale of military equipment for recognition and trading removal from sanctions lists for recognition of the State of Israel are not perceived by some as great diplomatic achievements, rather placing a monetary value on principles).
Trump Administration diplomacy is always zero-sum where one party wins, and one party loses rather than parties receiving all or within an acceptable range of what they sought from a negotiation. Trump Administration diplomacy is about acquiescence and “Quid Pro Quo.” Leaders are also acutely aware that President Trump does not believe in a necessary linkage between being liked and a successful presidency.
A cautionary note for President Trump- The majority of the heads of state and heads of government will be most interested in how they can manage, limit, the impact of a second-term Trump Administration knowing that President Trump may well seek to “get even” with those in leadership who he believes slighted him, disrespected him, did not agree to his terms.
The issue for leadership in countries is not so much whether they are aligned with the interests of the United States, it’s rather are they aligned with the interests of President Trump.
During the first four years of the Trump Administration, decisions by the United States government have not always been in sync with statements by President Trump- and he believes, when he cares, that the distance is not always detrimental to his interests and/or to the interests of the United States.
Country leadership who President Trump believes align with his interests and publicly ingratiate themselves to him will be embraced; those who do not will be scorned… until they are not. The announcement of punishment will be easy to predict, though often less impactful than presented; less so will be when and how accommodation and support will be afforded.
Absent a need for re-election, President Trump will use his second term- and beginning with a roll-out at the G20 Leaders’ Summit, to focus further upon reforms within NATO (members paying more and punishing those who don’t and continuing threats to leave the alliance), within the WTO (China and Russia self-defining as developing countries; panel rulings), within the United Nations (budgets and accountability), within the UPU (postal rates charged to United States companies and individuals) and within the EU (continue to encourage fracturing among members).
For each head of state and head of government, particularly those who will be seeking re-election during President Trump’s second term, their strategies for interacting with President Trump will be most problematic- as they know he will insert himself into their campaigns, welcomed or not.
Perhaps, however, the most consequential issue for heads of state and heads of government, along with voters in the United States, will be the impact upon decisions of the United States government by members of the Republican Party who begin their campaigns on 4 November 2020 for their party’s presidential nomination in 2024.
They won’t want to oppose President Trump and risk incurring his rath- temporary or permanent. They will want to promote their policy positions, which may well differ from those of President Trump. There may be more than twenty individuals who will seek the 2024 Republican Party nomination for president. For heads of state and heads of government, that means an enormous amount of outcome modeling analysis and will complicate their responses to President Trump. The nearer to the New Hampshire primary in early 2024, the more difficult will be the task of deciding how to interact with the United States.
The G20 Leaders’ Summit will have a jagged inter-personal landscape and challenging bilateral and multilateral dynamic. A new prime minister for Japan. A new prime minister for the United Kingdom. An outgoing chancellor for Germany. New leadership for the European Union. A United Kingdom-less EU. A EU-less United Kingdom.
The outgoing female Chancellor of Germany will be on the receiving end of most certainly a slight, humiliation or insult from President Trump. He perceives her as weak and inept.
Not unthinkable for the President to share, in a public forum, media event and/or during a bilateral where media is present, “[Head of state or head of government] did not like me during my first term, did not treat me and the United States well. Now I’m here for four more years. They didn’t think I’d win. I expect [head of state or head of government] will be nicer to me now. Has to since I’m not going anywhere.”
Issues relating to Cuba, Iran, Israel, Palestine, Syria, Turkey, and Venezuela will be a focus- as President Trump will be quite public with his message and objective- they should make a deal(s) before he makes a deal on their behalf, perhaps with himself, and they will have to live with it.
The Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) of the United States Department of the Treasury will continue to be the eighth branch of the United States military. It’s the most impactful and cost-effective means of projecting United States power where the goals are “regime change” and changing the behavior of regimes.
The President may well publicly continue to connect negotiations with Russia for an extension or replacement to the 2010 New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) with the importance to include China. The three heads of state will be in Riyadh.
There will be a visible tirade towards President Xi with respect to the global impact of COVID-19 upon members of the G20 and particularly the political impact upon country leadership. However hostile leaders are to President Xi, each knows that they either need or want to engage with China- and President Xi knows it too.
From conversations with senior-level government officials, using the good-to-bad metric hot (H), medium (M), cold (C), and frigid (F) to describe how heads of state and heads of government believe President Trump (not necessarily the United States government) views their relationship:
Argentina- President Alberto Fernandez M
Australia- Prime Minister Scott Morrison M
Brazil- President Jair Bolsonaro M
Canada- Prime Minister Justin Trudeau F
China- President Xi Jinping M-C
France- President Emmanuel Macron C-F
Germany- Chancellor Angela Merkel F
India- Prime Minister Narendra Modi H
Indonesia- President Joko Widodo C
Italy- Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte C
Japan- Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga (new)
Mexico- President Andrew Manuel Lopez Obrador M
Republic of Korea- President Moon Jae-in C
Russia- President Vladimir Putin H-M
Saudi Arabia- King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud H
South Africa- President Cyril Ramaphosa C
Turkey- President Recep Tayyip Erdogan H-M
United Kingdom- Prime Minister Boris Johnson M
European Union (EU)- Charles Michel (European Council) C, Ursula von der Leyen (European Commission) C
Spain- Pedro Sanchez (permanent guest) M
G20 Participants
“The G20 members are Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Republic of Korea, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Turkey, United Kingdom, United States and European Union (EU).”
“In addition to the G20 members, other countries are invited to participate. Spain is a permanent guest invitee to the G20 meetings. In 2020, Jordan, Singapore and Switzerland are invited as guest countries. International Organizations that have historically contributed to the G20 work are invited as well. These include the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), the Financial Stability Board (FSB), the International Labour Organization (ILO), the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), the United Nations (UN), the World Bank Group (WBG), the World Health Organization (WHO) and the World Trade Organization (WTO).”
“In 2020, regional organizations are also invited, including the Arab Monetary Fund (AMF), the Islamic Development Bank (IsDB), as well as Vietnam the Chair of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), South Africa the Chair of the African Union (AU), the United Arab Emirates the Chair of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), and the Republic of Rwanda the Chair of the New Partnership for Africa's Development (NEPAD).”
G20 Key Dates
“The 2020 G20 Leaders’ Summit will be held on November 21-22, 2020 in Riyadh. In the run-up to the Summit, the Kingdom will host G20 ministerial meetings, as well as meetings for senior officials, and representatives from civil society. Consistent with previous presidencies, there will be several meetings of Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors, as well as other Ministerial meetings—in line with the priorities of Saudi Arabia’s G20 Presidency. Leaders’ representatives, the G20 Sherpas, will meet throughout the year to prepare for the Summit, as will Finance and Central Bank Deputies and officials leading G20 Working Groups on specific G20 topics. The Kingdom will actively consult with members and other stakeholders and deliver meaningful and impactful outcomes in time for the November 2020 G20 Leaders’ Summit.”
