If An Episode Of “Law & Order” The Assistance By Belarus To Russian Federation Would Result In At Least Four Criminal Charges.

What about Belarus? 

Using the “Law and Order” television program guidebook, the Victor Lukashenko Administration in Minsk, Belarus, would be charged criminally (and is certainly guilty) of aiding and abetting the Russian Federation, as a co-conspirator with the Russian Federation, as an accessory after-the-fact in continuing to support the Russian Federation, and with permitting the Russian Federation to continually trespass through the Belarus border with Ukraine, and other offenses.  Then, there are the potential civil liabilities- damages that Ukraine may seek from Belarus.  Will have personal injury attorneys orgasmic. 

Belarus has during the last twenty years of the Lukashenko Administration become increasingly dependent upon the Russian Federation for its commercial, economic, military, and political sustainability.  Minsk has approximately 2.5 million residents.  The government does not recognize political opposition, not even permitting an official opposition for optical value.  Those self-identified as opposing the government and those the government believes oppose the government are either in prison or out of the country.  The presumptive winner of the 2020 presidential election resides in Lithuania with her three children while her husband who had been a presidential candidate was jailed. 

To recap, Belarus (population approximately 9.5 million) and the Russian Federation (population approximately 145 million) engaged in military exercises in Belarus, particularly in the southern portions of the country bordering the northern border of Ukraine prior to the 24 February 2022 invasion of Ukraine by the armed forces of the Russian Federation- some of whom on 24 February 2022 entered Ukraine from Belarus and were directed toward Kyiv, the capital of Ukraine.  There continue to be reports that members of the armed forces of Belarus and representatives of intelligence agencies for Belarus have entered Ukraine; and that Belarus continues to permit resupply operations for the armed forces of the Russian Federation. 

The relationship between Russian Federation President Putin and Belarus President Lukashenko is not dissimilar to that of parent-to-child Herr Adolph Hitler and “Il Duce,” Benito Mussolini of Italy during World War II.  

Belarus has been impacted by sanctions since 2020 resulting from a presidential election deemed lacking in transparency- and falsely tallied to favor the incumbent who officially received 85% of the vote. Then, impacted further by sanctions after having directed a commercial airliner to land in Minsk and arresting a passenger who had been critical of the government.  Further sanctions were implemented when Belarus encouraged citizens of countries in the Middle East to transit Belarus into Poland and Lithuania against the wishes of those governments.  

From 24 February 2022, the United States, United Kingdom, Canada, other countries, European Union (EU), and North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) have announced and implemented an inspiring variety of sanctions against the Russian Federation.  Important to note that not all members of the EU and not all members of NATO have implemented sanctions- Turkey importantly.  Critical to remember is prior to 24 February 2022, since the fourth quarter of 2021, the Russian Federation was in possession of a complete list of potential sanctions and modeled their likely impact.  And the Russian Federation was already subject to sanctions from its invasion of Georgia in 2008 and invasion of the Crimean Peninsula in 2014.   

What the analysts got wrong- and this includes analysts outside of the Russian Federation, is the speed at which sanctions moved rapidly from announcement to document to implementation; and the speed at which the private sector did the same.  The timeline for implementation was projected at three weeks to four weeks.  It happened in days. 

Belarus, though every intelligence estimate projected that an attack upon Ukraine by the armed forces of the Russian Federation would include military assets pre-positioned in Belarus, neither the United States nor EU and NATO provided in the public domain a list of what would impact Belarus if it permitted its territory to be a base camp for military action against Ukraine. 

The same scenario is shared with China- there was never a complete outline in the public domain for President Xi to digest- if China assists the Russian Federation in negating the impact of sanctions imposed upon the Russian Federation, then China- its government and its companies will be impacted with one, two, three, four, etc.  Why did this not happen? 

Had Belarus been delivered such a list the likelihood that it would have dissuaded the Russian Federation from attacking Ukraine from the territory of Belarus was unlikely.  However, the swift implementation of sanctions upon Belarus would have increased the cost of the Ukraine campaign for the Russian Federation- more funds and other support would need to be directed to Belarus.  For example, credit card and charge card companies suspending services in Belarus and removal of financial institutions from use of the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT) transaction communication system. In addition, there would have been an immediate increase in the commercial, economic, and political pain to the citizens of Belarus which would have destabilized the current government in Minsk. 

There remains a belief by government officials in some capitals that the government in Minsk can yet be decoupled from the government in Moscow.  Two years into sanctions for previous transgressions and an economy substantially harmed- including declines in manufacturing and food production and a flight of young people to other countries have yet provided a gravitational pull towards re-engagement with the EU or the United States. 

At present, a stronger Belarus means a stronger Russian Federation.