For President Zelensky, A Linear Equation: Not Enough Military Personnel Results Acceleration Of Negotiation Process. A Porous Ukraine Mobilization Law May Require Him To Negotiate.
For President Zelensky, A Linear Equation: Not Enough Military Personnel Results Acceleration Of Negotiation Process.
A Porous Ukraine Mobilization Law May Require President Zelensky To Negotiate With President Putin.
Message From Voters May Be Used Potentially As Excuse, Mandate, Or Demand.
The Verkhovna Rada Is Considering Approximately 4,000 Amendments To Current Mobilization Law- Most Would Weaken It Rather Than Strengthen It.
A New Law Providing Too Many Exemptions For Public Sector And Private Sector Will Result In Armed Forces Of Ukraine Having Fewer Personnel Than Leadership Believes Required For Offensive And Defensive Operations Against The Armed Forces Of The Russian Federation.
Citizens Of Ukraine Volunteering To Assemble Drones, Participate In Non-Combat Military Operations Management Is Different Than Volunteering Or Agreeing To Serve In Front Line Duty.
Unless War Transforms Into Artillery And Drones Attacking One Another Rather Than Soldiers In Line-Of-Sight Fighting, There Is A Need For Personnel To Engage On Battlefields.
Servant Of The People Party Controls The Verkhovna Rada With 254 Seats Of 450 Seats, So Mobilization Law Issues Would Seem To Not Need Much Debate- Rally Behind The President. But, There Is Debate… And That Debate Will Intensify As The War Continues And Particularly If There Are No Dramatic Territorial Gains.
President Zelensky Is Projecting Responsibility For Increased Conscription Onto Members Of Servant To The People Party And Upon The Verkhovna Rada So He Can Avoid Unitary Responsibility. Not Unusual For A Politician In Any Country.
Absent Sizeable And Permanent Territorial Advances By The Armed Forces Of Ukraine- And There Have Been Few In More Than One Year, Military-Age Citizens Of Ukraine Must Be More Thoroughly Convinced To Wear Uniforms, Carry Firearms, Serve On The Front Lines, While Preparing Themselves, Family, And Friends To Learn Of Their Death.
More Information Into The Public Domain About Politically Powerful And Wealthy In Ukraine Using Influence To Avoid Military Service For Themselves, Family, And Friends, Will Further Disengage The Public From Recruitment By President Zelensky.
Into A Third Year Of War, With An Officially-Reported Approximately 31,000 Dead Personnel Of The Armed Forces Of Ukraine- A Number Which Has Been Met With Widespread Disbelief, There Becomes A Fine Line Between A President Seeking An Armed Forces And An Autocrat Seeking An Armed Forces.
If Forcing Citizens Into The Armed Forces Of Ukraine Becomes The Only Means For President Zelensky To Continue To Prosecute The War, Both Internal Support And External Support For The Zelensky Administration Will Quickly Evaporate.
In The United States And In The U.S.S.R., Young People, Colleges And Universities, Journalists, And Politicians Eventually Coalesced To Oppose The Vietnam War And The Afghanistan War… And Presidential And General Secretary Decisions Followed.
President Zelensky Cannot Fight A War His Constituents Are Not Prepared To Fight.
President Zelensky And Vladimir Putin, President Of The Russian Federation (2000-2008 and 2012-) And Their Governments Must Continue To Adapt To A Citizenry Whose Definition Of “Winning” Is Neither Monolithic Nor Static And Continues A Trajectory By Young And Old Embracing How To End The War.
Both President Zelensky And President Putin Require “Buy-In” From Their Constituents To Continue The War. Success Or Failure Rests Upon Whose Constituents, Whose Consumers, Are Most Effectively Persuaded To Purchase What Their Respective Head Of State Is Offering For Sale.
Volodymyr Zelensky, President of Ukraine (2019- ) may soon have to confront, narrow, and resolve the increasing distance between what citizens of Ukraine proclaim and what the citizens of Ukraine are prepared to do- die on the battlefield.
Support by citizens as evidenced through social media activity, participating in demonstrations, speaking at conferences, donating funds, supporting charities, and lobbying governments is distantly distinct from wearing a uniform and serving on the territorial lines separating the armed forces of Ukraine and the armed forces of the Russian Federation.
On 24 February 2022, the armed forces of the Russian Federation invaded and further invaded the territory of Ukraine in what Vladimir Putin, President of the Russian Federation (2000-2008 and 2012- ), defined as a Special Military Operation [SMO] then on 22 December 2022 he redefined as a war. The initial invasion of Ukraine by the armed forces of the Russian Federation was in part from the territory of Belarus.
The war between the Russian Federation and Ukraine did not commence on 24 February 2022. The roots began their trajectories on 20 February 2014 when the armed forces of the Russian Federation invaded the Crimean Peninsula and the area known as the Donbas Region (Donetsk Oblast and Luhansk Oblast).
The government of Ukraine and the government of the Russian Federation have a shared problem- neither have the optimum number of personnel required to continue battling against one another with a likely outcome other than a “frozen conflict.”
The government of Ukraine and the government of the Russian Federation each depend upon outside resources to continue the war. Some governments are providing direct and indirect support simultaneously to both parties in the war.
The government of the Russian Federation has greater elasticity to conscript due to the rigidity of its political infrastructure. The government of Ukraine has less elasticity to conscript due to the accountability, responsiveness, and transparency of its political infrastructure.
The problem is acute with respect to young people, eighteen years to thirty years. These men and women are in school, new to careers, in relationships, married, with children, with parents and grandparents who need assistance- and additional financial support.
The trajectories of two 20th Century wars were influenced by young people, colleges and universities, journalists, and politicians who eventually coalesced to oppose the Vietnam War and Afghanistan War… and presidential decisions and general secretary decisions followed- they sought a way out.
Lessons From Johnson-Humphrey Administration (1963-1969) And Nixon-Agnew Administration (1969-1974) During Vietnam War.
Lessons From Brezhnev Administration (1964-1982), Andropov Administration (1982-1984), Chernenko Administration (1984-1985), And Gorbachev Administration (1985-1991) During Afghanistan War (1979-1989).
The Vietnam War was a conflict from 1 November 1955 to 30 April 1975 involving Cambodia, Laos, United States, and Vietnam. There are officially 58,220 individuals listed as “U.S. military fatal casualties” of the Vietnam War. From Selective Service System (SSS): “From 1948 until 1973, during both peacetime and periods of conflict, men were drafted to fill vacancies in the armed forces which could not be filled through voluntary means. Induction authority expired in 1973, but the Selective Service System remained in existence in “standby” to support the all-volunteer force in case of an emergency. Registration was suspended early in 1975 and the Selective Service System entered into “deep standby”.”
As with the financially secure and the politically connected during the Vietnam War, the financially secure and the politically connected in Ukraine and in the Russian Federation are using the tools afforded them to shield themselves, members of their families, and their friends from serving in the military.
For President Zelensky, if leadership of the armed forces of Ukraine do not have the human resources they believe required to prosecute the war, a result could be President Zelensky delivering the following message, but in reality, an ultimatum to the citizens of Ukraine.
“While I believe the armed forces of Ukraine can, with the necessary human resources and necessary equipment, continue to battle the armed forces of the Russian Federation, absent the human resources component, there remains one option.
The 450 elected members of the Verkhovna Rada are representing the will of the citizens of Ukraine.
With the Mobilization Law crafted to include limitations as to the number of men and women available for service in the armed forces of Ukraine, continuing defensive and offensive military operations would only result in unnecessary deaths and wounded.
By limiting the number of citizens available to serve in the armed forces of Ukraine, the citizens of Ukraine, through their elected representatives, have delivered the message that they want the government of Ukraine to seek an end to the war- and that means commence negotiations with the government of the Russian Federation- even if a result is a temporary or permanent loss of areas considered since 1991 as the internationally-recognized boundaries of Ukraine.
I will do what the people want. I must do what the people want. I cannot fight a war the people do not want to fight.”
Text of Mobilization Law in PDF Format
Text of Mobilization Law in WORD Format
Background
A presidential decree was approved by the Verkhovna Rada, the parliament of Ukraine, on 3 March 2022. Men aged eighteen to sixty were mobilized. The Minister of Defense said the plan was to mobilize 1,000,000 citizens.
From Wikipedia
“2022
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy signed decree 24.02.2022 № 64/2022 "On the imposition of martial law in Ukraine" on general mobilization in the country, which would commence on 25 February for a period of 90 days, calling up conscripts and reservists; all male Ukrainian citizens aged 18 to 60 were prohibited from travelling abroad, unless they could provide documents that they fulfilled specified conditions for exemption. Mobilization was carried out in all regions. The General Staff had to determine the "order and volume" of those mobilized, and the government had to provide the necessary funding. The heads of regional administrations had to “ensure the creation and operation of regional, district and city medical commissions,” the decree specified. Zelenskyy did not support a petition to allow men between the ages of 18 and 60 to leave the country abroad. In May 2022, the Verkhovna Rada (Ukraine's national parliament) extended martial law and mobilization in Ukraine for 90 days at once, until 23 August. Students, parents with three or more children under 18, caretakers of disabled dependents and those deemed medically unfit will not be mobilized.
On 22 June 2022, a bill was submitted to the Verkhovna Rada prohibiting men of military age from traveling abroad during martial law. It is assumed that the circle of persons to whom an exception will be made will be determined by the law "On mobilization training and mobilization."
In July 2022, the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine decided that from October in the military commissariats, all women who received education in the fields of chemistry, biology, and telecommunications will have to enter the military register. The ministry explained that all women liable for military service will not be able to travel abroad during martial law.
In August 2022, the Verkhovna Rada extended martial law and general mobilization until 21 November 2022.
In September 2022, Deputy Minister of Defense of Ukraine Anna Malyar announced the forthcoming postponement of the deadlines for registering women for military registration for the next year, she clarified that: “The Ministry of Defense, within the framework of its powers, prepared a decree that once again postponed the deadlines for admitting women of certain professions / specialties to the military accounting for another year - until October 1, 2023.
On 17 November 2022, the Verkhovna Rada adopted laws approving presidential decrees on the extension of martial law and general mobilization in Ukraine for 90 days, until February 19, 2023.
2023
On February 7, May 2, July 27 and November 8, 2023, the Verkhovna Rada adopted laws approving presidential decrees on the extension of martial law and general mobilization in Ukraine for 90 days each. Lasting from February 19, 2023, to May 20, to August 18, to November 15, to February 14, 2024.
On 19 December 2023, President Zelenskyy said that the Ministry of Defense proposed to mobilize 450,000 to 500,000 additional Ukrainian citizens, including Ukrainian men living abroad, into the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Zelenskyy said that if needed, the conscription age could be reduced from 27 to 25 years. On 26 December, the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces, Valery Zaluzhny, said that the military command had not formally requested the mobilization, and while it provides ongoing classified requests for various resources, it is not entitled to propose legislative initiatives.
2024
On February 6, 2024 the Verkhovna Rada adopted laws approving presidential decrees on the extension of martial law and general mobilization in Ukraine for another 3 months. Lasting from February 14 until May 13, 2024.
On February 23, 2024 parliament of Ukraine passed a demobilization bill introduced by Zelenskiy. The bill stipulates that conscripts who have been mobilized since 2022 should be pulled in reserve for at least 12 months within the terms determined by the decree of the president of Ukraine.
In late December 2023, the lack of recruits to the Armed Forces of Ukraine and at the urging of the former Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Zaluzhnyi, a new draft bill was proposed in the parliament. The bill would, among other things, lower the conscription age from 27 to 25, set a limit to discharge conscripts after 36 months of active duty during martial law, give military recruiters and the state of Ukraine more legal pathways to restrict and punish draft evaders in Ukraine and abroad, and enable them to hand out call-up papers digitally. After initial hearing and a wave of criticism of it being unconstitutional the proposal was amended in mid-January 2024 and passed at the first hearing in the Verkhovna Rada. The final bill is expected to be adopted in March 2024 and includes more than 3000 amendments. The new draft bill is expected to fill the gap of the 500 000 new conscripts Ukraine needs to sustain the war.
Draft dodgers, bribes and demobilization
Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, around 650,000 military-aged men have fled the country through bribes, fake medical records or illegal crossings. The crossings take place in the Carpathian mountains, on the border with Romania. According to Ukrainian authorities around 20,000 people were caught trying to cross the border illegally since February 2022 and another 20,000 successful crossings according to a BBC Eye Investigation.
In the first months of the war, there were many volunteers to the Armed Forces of Ukraine, including mercenaries from around the world. The expectations were high, a quick end to the war, with the restoration of Ukrainian 1991 borders. As the conflict dragged on, the population began to grow weary and the losses became visible. Many who went to fight from abroad, quickly realized the WW1-esque nature of the conflict and the number of foreign nationals decreased sharply.
Of those that stayed in Ukraine and didn't volunteer, there was a tendency to pay bribes to the conscription officers, usually $5,000 to $10,000, to avoid being mobilized. There is an extensive bribe culture in Ukraine. During the second year of the invasion, and especially after the 2023 Ukrainian Counteroffensive, there was a lack of new recruits.
To counteract this, Ukrainian government began harsher methods of mobilization, such as road blocks, business raids, going house to house and pulling people from the streets. In the latter half of 2023, many videos surfaced online showing Ukrainian men violently dragged into vans and driven to the military recruiting center (ТЦК [uk])
It was reported by eyewitnesses Ukraine had a corrupt medical commission. Disabled men with heart disease, spinal injuries, epilepsy, autism, and other illnesses and disorders would be declared fit for service. And those with money would use bribes for a medical exemption. There are a growing number of legal battles in Ukraine related to cases of lawlessness in the recruitment of new conscripts.
Ukrainian Armed Forces servicemen are reported to be one of the oldest in the world, with an average age of 43 in November 2023, 10 years older than in March 2022. Desertion, flight from the front lines and insubordination in Ukrainian Armed Forces has seen a steady growth in 2022 and 2023. The lack of resources for mobilization also affects rotation, with many conscripts having no rotation since the start of the war in 2022. There have been protests around Ukraine, primarily wives and relatives of the mobilized soldiers demanding demobilization and to see their loved ones again."
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