Time For Ukraine And Russia To Divulge Numbers Of Civilian And Military Dead, Injured, And Missing. Zelensky And Putin Need To Test Their Electorates And Trust Their Electorates. About Transparency.
Time For Ukraine And Russian Federation To Divulge Numbers Of Civilian And Military Dead, Injured, And Missing Since 24 February 2022.
President Zelensky And President Putin Need To Test Their Electorates And Trust Their Electorates.
Both Presidents Maintain That Their Citizens Support War- Publishing Data About Dead, Injured, And Missing Will Help To Prove It Or Dispute It.
President Zelensky Demands Transparency From Others.
Governments Supporting Ukraine And Russian Federation Should Demand The Data.
Taxpayers Funding Ukraine And Russian Federation Deserve The Data.
Thus Far: Not Enough People Dead. Not Enough People Injured. Not Enough People Missing.
If United States Debt Clock Is A Guide For Mobilizing From Bad News, President Putin And President Zelensky May Little To Worry About.
The good news: Civilian leadership and military leadership within the government of the Russian Federation and the government of Ukraine each possess numbers for dead, injured, and missing civilians and numbers for dead, injured, and missing members of the armed forces above which the Russian Federation-Ukraine war is unsustainable. Unfortunately, the numbers are not fixed, and the numbers are fluid based upon military successes and failures and civilian successes and failures.
The bad news: Despite nearing nineteen months for the Russian Federation-Ukraine war, neither civilian leadership nor military leadership in Moscow and Kyiv have yet to reach numbers for dead, injured, and missing whereby either government proactively seeks to end the war. This means:
For Vladimir Putin, President of the Russian Federation (2000-2008 and 2012- ), and Volodymyr Zelensky, President of Ukraine (2019- ): Not enough people have died. Not enough people have been injured. Not enough people are missing. This is worth repeating… Not enough people have died. Not enough people have been injured. Not enough people are missing.
The acceptable numbers to continue the Russian Federation-Ukraine war for civilian leadership and military leadership in both countries are far higher than acceptable numbers for their respective citizenries. To achieve their political goals and military objectives, decision makers in Moscow and Kyiv are prepared to sacrifice far more lives- whether dead, injured, or missing, than are the adults, children, voters, and taxpayers who the decision makers were elected, appointed, and sworn to represent and protect.
Within each country, despite what are meant-to-be-inspiring public statements by civilian leadership and military leadership, their respective citizenries- their populations, also possess numbers for dead, injured, and missing, above which the Russian Federation-Ukraine war is unsustainable- and unacceptable. These numbers have yet to be determined because citizens in Ukraine and the Russian Federation do not have access to data from which to determine their opinions. Political leadership and military leadership do not trust those whom they are sworn to represent.
Citizen tools to manifest their opinion include protests, refusal to accept conscription, interacting with online platforms, and at the ballot box. Today in the Russian Federation and in Ukraine there are not competitive media marketplaces with unimpeded access, so the ability of citizens to project what they believe is limited.
The destruction of infrastructure in Ukraine and the Russian Federation, which is exponentially higher in Ukraine, has yet to become a component of the political calculations by Kyiv and Moscow. This is primarily because infrastructure is repairable and replaceable so the optics of an apartment building collapsing has less impact, as it should, than from a coffin lowered into the ground. However, the collapsing apartment building receives more media attention.
Since 24 February 2022, neither the government of the Russian Federation nor the government of Ukraine have officially published data as to military deaths, injuries, and missing, and civilian deaths, injuries, and missing. As a result, published estimates vary:
Ukraine Business News (23 August 2023): “But I can tell you with 99% certainty, despite the UN and other organizations' numbers, that Russia has already killed more than 100,000 Ukrainians since February 24 of last year.”
Ministry of Defense of Ukraine (21 August 2023): “Russia had lost 257,470 troops in Ukraine since the beginning of its full-scale invasion on Feb. 24 last year. This number includes 500 casualties Russian forces suffered just over the past day.”
Member of Parliament, Verkhovna Rada, “11,000 civilians killed of which 500 were children” in Ukraine since 24 February 2022.
Prosecutor General of Ukraine (19 August 2023): “502 Ukrainian children have been officially reported killed since the start of Russia's full-scale invasion last year. More than 1,100 children have also sustained injuries of varying degrees of severity.”
The New York Times (18 August 2023): “Russia’s military casualties, the officials said, are approaching 300,000. The number includes as many as 120,000 deaths and 170,000 to 180,000 injured troops. The Russian numbers dwarf the Ukrainian figures, which the officials put at close to 70,000 killed and 100,000 to 120,000 wounded…. According to Pentagon documents leaked in the spring, Russia had suffered 189,500 to 223,000 casualties, including up to 43,000 killed in action. One document said that as of February, Ukraine had suffered 124,500 to 131,000 casualties, with as many as 17,500 killed in action. While several U.S. officials and one former senior Ukrainian official said about 70,000 Ukrainian soldiers had died in the conflict so far, other American officials said the number could be lower.”
USA TODAY (16 August 2023): “United Nations estimates 9,300 dead and 16,600 wounded in Ukraine… United States government classified (but published) documents estimates 125,000 military wounded and 17,000 military killed for Ukraine… United States officials estimated in spring 2023- Russia killed 40,000 and 200,000 wounded.”
The New York Times (7 August 2023): Since 24 February 2022, the Russian Federation-Ukraine war has “taken 200,000 lives… roughly split between the two sides, American diplomats in Moscow estimate.”
Both President Zelensky and President Putin have political rationales for maintaining data confidentiality about military deaths, injuries, and missing, and civilian deaths, injuries, and missing.
Perhaps the primary reason for confidentially is not to have military leadership and those on the ground in combat knowing what percentage of the armed forces of the Russian Federation and the armed forces of Ukraine have been impacted. Such information would be useful for identifying strengths and weaknesses and impact morale (military and civilian)- positively or negatively.
Perhaps the primary reason for confidentially is not beneficial to have real-time data about military deaths, injuries, and missing, and civilian deaths, injuries, and missing, on the desks of heads of state and heads of government whose taxpayers have provided (often with borrowing in the case of Ukraine), commercial, economic, financial, humanitarian, military, and political support to the government of the Russian Federation and government of Ukraine. Data that indicates weakness may result in less support. Note: In some instances, governments are providing value directly and indirectly to both sides in the war.
However, the reason President Zelensky and President Putin do not want to in real time divulge military deaths, injuries, and missing, and civilian deaths, injuries, and missing is a fear the information would result in public criticism of the war- thoroughly reported by domestic media despite government attempts to preclude it- which would require either head of state to seek an end to the war- regardless of what may be their belief to the contrary and despite what may then become their inability (or ineligibility) to seek re-election. The presidential election for the Russian Federation and Ukraine is scheduled for March 2024.
With his recent decision to extend martial law (which curtails political activity) to mid-November 2023, President Zelensky has derailed parliamentary elections scheduled by 29 October 2023 and is signaling a delayed March 2024 presidential election (and rescheduled parliamentary elections). In May 2023, President Zelensky shared “If we have martial law, we cannot have elections. … If there is no martial law, then there will be [elections].” Given the extraordinary development since 24 February 2022 of secure online consumer platforms by the government of Ukraine and by the private sector within Ukraine, likely both a parliamentary election and presidential election could be conducted- and that meaningful numbers of voters residing in occupied territory (many of whom have departed) and outside of Ukraine would not have their franchise (right to vote) jeopardized.
Given the infrastructure of the government of the Russian Federation and historical societal norms within the Russian Federation, the impact would be significant upon President Putin from the publication of military deaths, injuries, and missing, and civilian deaths, injuries, and missing. The more damage (and dead, injured, and missing) inflicted by the armed forces of Ukraine on civilian infrastructure and military infrastructure within the internationally-recognized boundary of the Russian Federation and within the self-defined territory of the Russian Federation, the less control will the government of the Russian Federation have in exclusively producing the public narrative. The impact of the publication of military deaths, injuries, and missing, and civilian deaths, injuries, and missing would be profound upon President Zelensky given the elasticity of information channels both within Ukraine and from Ukraine outwards.
With each day absent of substantial territorial realignment in those areas of Ukraine occupied/annexed by the armed forces of the Russian Federation, the resolve by the citizenry of Ukraine is tested further.
Youth may be supporting (with their cellular devices) the goals of the war- the removal of the armed forces of the Russian Federation from the borders of Ukraine as of 24 August 1991, but they are not eager to change from their cherished clothing brands into one-color-for-all fatigues, forgo nightclubs, forgo casinos, and forgo entertainment. The same is true for their counterparts in the Russian Federation.
Millions of citizens of Ukraine (approximately six million of which approximately one million are in Poland; Ukraine pre-2022 population was approximately 44 million) and the Russian Federation have departed for other countries. For some, primarily men (although including women), a goal is to avoid serving in the armed forces. For some citizens, primarily from Ukraine, an initial goal was to escape (temporarily) the consequences of decisions by the armed forces of the Russian Federation. For some citizens, continuing their employment, providing for themselves and their families, necessitated relocating. The government of Ukraine has reported the number of citizens not intending to return to Ukraine is far higher than expected- and needed for the commercial, economic, financial, and political recovery of Ukraine. For some citizens, primarily from the Russian Federation, a goal is to re-establish themselves outside of the consequences of sanctions imposed upon the public sectors and private sectors in the Russian Federation.
Elected members of parliament, the Verkhovna Rada, from all parties have increasingly questioned decisions of the Zelensky Administration- as was part of their ethos prior to 24 February 2022 when President Zelensky’s polling showed his national support in the 20% range.
Individuals who aspire to the president of Ukraine and other offices are no longer hesitant in criticizing one another- and President Zelensky and those surrounding him.
Media has re-emerged from self-censorship and editorial discipline to investigate and publish the results of investigations into corruption, mismanagement, and decisions about the war.
For President Zelensky, if the data about military deaths, injuries, and missing, and civilian deaths, injuries, and missing is near to (or exceeding) the upper estimates sourced by media and to the Biden-Harris Administration and to the United Nations, then he would be bound to publicly defend the decisions by his government since 24 February 2022.
He would need argue for continued death, injury, and missing as necessary sacrifice for the territorial integrity of Ukraine- and that absent the removal of the armed forces of the Russian Federation from the 24 August 1991 borders of Ukraine or the permanent acquiescence by the government of Ukraine of occupied territory to the government of the Russian Federation, there will be no membership for Ukraine in the Brussels, Belgium-based North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and Brussels, Belgum-based European Union (EU). Note: The government of Ukraine and the armed forces of Ukraine will be unable to sustain a robust defensive posture or robust offensive posture toward the government of the Russian Federation and armed forces of the Russian Federation without the commercial, economic, financial, humanitarian, military, and political support from members of NATO, the EU, and from borrowing by taxpayers in the United States. And the painful reality is neither NATO nor the EU nor the United Kingdom, nor the United States, nor other countries have an obligation to support the government of Ukraine. They have thus far provided support to the government of Ukraine because of a belief that directly or indirectly there is a benefit to their citizens. What defines that belief is not fixed; it is flexible and has since 24 February 2022 increased its flexibility- and with that debate about what is wanted, what is needed, and what is necessary.
NATO: United States, United Kingdom, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, Finland, France, Iceland, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Albania, Lithuania, Bulgaria, Montenegro, Croatia, Czech Republic, Poland, Estonia, Romania, Germany, Slovakia, Greece, Slovenia, Hungary, Spain, Turkiye, Latvia, and North Macedonia. The 600-member Grand National Assembly of the Republic of Turkiye is expected to approve in September 2023 the ascension of the Kingdom of Sweden- which has no border with the Russian Federation. The 199-member National Assembly of Hungary (Country Assembly) has yet to approve the ascension of the Kingdom of Sweden.
EU: Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, and Sweden.
If shown President Zelensky deliberately misled NATO and the EU about the numbers of military deaths, injuries, and missing, and civilian deaths, injuries, and missing, then the credibility of the government of Ukraine will be suspect. There will be minimal forgiving that the lack of candor, or outright lying, was necessary- particularly to those EU-member governments whose taxpayers and institutions have provided approximately US$74 billion and plan to deliver another approximately US$50 billion in commercial, economic, humanitarian, military, and political support for the government of Ukraine.
Note: In 2022, United States taxpayers borrowed more than US$113.1 billion to support the government of Ukraine. In August 2023, the Biden-Harris Administration (2021- ) proposed an additional US$23.9 billion to support the government of Ukraine and for Ukraine-related support to other countries. So, elected political leadership in the United States have asked taxpayers to borrow more than US$137.1 billion during the last nineteen months.
Politically, President Zelensky would be well advised to pivot focus from seeking, pressuring, and demanding additional borrowing by United States taxpayers to seeking increased support from European Continent-based NATO members, along with Canada (due to its substantial Ukrainian diaspora) and the United Kingdom, and from the EU- which has declared its desire to have Ukraine become a member and should therefore have much greater responsibility for positioning Ukraine to become a member of the EU. Inappropriate for United States taxpayers to borrow funds to assist Ukraine with integration into the EU. That’s just wrong.
President Zelensky and President Putin need to direct that real-time data be published detailing military deaths, injuries, and missing, and civilian deaths, injuries, and missing, since 24 February 2022.
One suggestion: Consider the United States Debt Clock as an example. It includes sobering data- the United States national debt exceeds US$32.7 trillion- meaning more than US$253,686.00 owed per taxpayer. Sadly, most United States citizens pay little attention to what the numbers mean for them.
Tragically, this lack of attention might bode well for convincing President Zelensky and President Putin to publish the military deaths, injuries, and missing, and civilian deaths, injuries, and missing… The numbers are too large to resonate with the public.
War Timeline
On 24 February 2022, the armed forces of the Russian Federation invaded and further invaded the territory of Ukraine in what Vladimir Putin, President of the Russian Federation (2000-2008 and 2012- ), defined as a Special Military Operation [SMO] then on 22 December 2022 he redefined as a war. The initial invasion of Ukraine by the armed forces of the Russian Federation was in part from the territory of Belarus.
The war between the Russian Federation and Ukraine did not commence on 24 February 2022. The roots began their trajectories on 20 February 2014 when the armed forces of the Russian Federation invaded the Crimean Peninsula and the area known as the Donbas Region (Donetsk Oblast and Luhansk Oblast).