President Erdogan Is Astute To Appreciate The Moment Provided To Him In Madrid.  Had He Refused To Compromise, His Ability To Influence NATO And EU Would Have Diminished.  He Chose Wisely. 

But, This Is The First Inning Of A Multi-Inning Event. 

As reported by The New York Times (28 June 2022): “As NATO allies, Finland and Sweden commit to fully support Turkey against threats to its national security,” NATO’s Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said, providing some details of the agreement. “This includes further amending their domestic legislation, cracking down on P.K.K. activities and entering into an agreement with Turkey on extradition,” he added, referring to the Kurdistan Workers’ Party which seeks an independent Kurdish state on territory partly within Turkey’s borders.” 

Recep Tayyip Erdogan, President of the Republic of Turkiye, is not known widely for accepting compromise when opportunity exists for a singular focus upon an issue. 

Yesterday, he signed-off upon a trilateral agreement by the government of Turkiye, government of the Republic of Finland, and government of the Kingdom of Sweden.  The text of the agreement was yesterday and remains today not his preference.   

The text is primarily a document about what will be rather than what is now.  It reflects promises by two governments to a third government. 

Based upon that document, the legislatures in the capitals of each of the thirty countries who are members of the Brussels, Belgium-based North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) will be asked to approve NATO membership for Finland and Sweden: United States, United Kingdom, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, France, Iceland, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Albania, Lithuania, Bulgaria, Montenegro, Croatia, Czech Republic, Poland, Estonia, Romania, Germany, Slovakia, Greece, Slovenia, Hungary, Spain, Turkey, Latvia, and North Macedonia.   

There will be efforts by governments to commence immediately the membership process- as a signal and as a symbol of the resolve by NATO. 

For President Erdogan, he will select one of two choices:  1) Be the first government to ratify the membership of Finland and Sweden or 2) Be the last government to ratify the membership of Finland and Sweden.  The Biden-Harris Administration (2021- ) may seek to have the United States be the first NATO member to approve the new members.   

While going first would be optically appealing- Turkiye establishes the pace, President Erdogan will opt to be last- so that he can confirm prior to a vote that both Finland and Sweden have implemented what was agreed to on 28 June 2022. 

The phrase “the devil is in the details” is well-suited to describe what will be the legislative processes for Finland and Sweden.  Both are robust democracies with lively and multi-party participation, and each has a vibrant independent media.  Both are members of the twenty-seven country Brussels, Belgium-based European Union (EU) and are required to abide by EU laws, regulations, and policies, as well as their own laws, regulations, and policies. Meaning there will be much merging of interests required to move toward the desire of Turkiye. What the president of Finland and prime minister of Sweden signed on 28 June 2022 may not be digested easily by all legislative members- particularly with respect to issues about extradition. 

The government of Turkiye continues to have the following issues to consider relating to Ukraine and the Russian Federation:  

• Agreement for Turkish Naval Forces to escort agricultural commodity transport vessels from ports in Ukraine through the Sea of Azov and Black Sea to international markets.

• Re-establishment of Istanbul-Kyiv-Istanbul operations by Turkish Airlines using the same rationale as Turkish Airlines continuing to operate its Istanbul-Moscow-Istanbul routing- providing connectivity to the outside world.

• Not providing “safe-heaven” for assets of Russian Federation-based companies and individuals of Russian descent who are subject to sanctions implemented by the United States and other countries and by the twenty-seven country members of the European Union (EU).    

The members of NATO, and separately the government of the United States, will also need to resolve issues relating to the presence in Turkiye of the Russian Federation-origin S-400 missile system; the purchase of Lockheed Martin F-16 fighter jets and modernization equipment for existing aircraft; reinstatement into the F-35 aircraft manufacturing and delivery programs; and removal of sanctions imposed by the United States relating to the S-400 missile system.  President Erdogan is astute to not seek public and direct linkage (quid pro quo) between the ascension of Finland and Sweden into NATO with these other issues.  

Important Body Language

President Erdogan was smiling…. and doing so often during the NATO Summit.  His body language reflected a confidence and a person who was relaxed- basking in knowing he was a center of attention- in a positive manner. 

Heads of state and heads of government were reaching out to him, were smiling when engaging with him.  Laughing next to him.  A level of comfort atypical. 

A memorable moment:  The President was walking behind a seated Boris Johnson, Prime Minister of the United Kingdom.  President Erdogan gently placed his hand on the Prime Minister’s shoulder who turned to react- and he did with a smile.   

Fortunately, President Erdogan did not replicate the now infamous standing-from-behind two-hand shoulder rub performed in 2006 on Angela Merkel, Chancellor of the Federal Republic of Germany (2005-2021) by George W. Bush, 43rd President of the United States (2001-2009). 

Important that President Erdogan felt comfortable enough to physically connect with a colleague.  

The interactions do not, however, equate with smooth-sailing for the processes to be undertaken by the governments of Finland and Sweden as they relate to the expectations of the government of Turkiye.   

A smile, laugh, pat on the shoulder in Madrid does not mean President Erdogan is not prepared to recommend to the Grand National Assembly of Turkiye in Ankara that it not ratify the ascension of Finland and Norway to be the thirty-first and thirty-second members of NATO. 

An Appreciation 

President Erdogan has appreciated that not be in the interest of Turkiye is a government perceived by NATO and the EU as more focused upon demonstrating intransigence, bullying, rigidity, zero-sum (win-lose) positions rather than balanced compromise when necessary to address an immediate objective.   

Unhelpful for the commercial, economic, and political infrastructures within Turkiye would be governments, companies, and financial institutions needing to be convinced to engage with, invest in, provide services to Turkiye rather than naturally being attractive to the country of 86.1 million- including millions of refugees from Syria and other countries, the hosting of which has been an immense financial burden for the taxpayers of Turkiye.  President Erdogan is seeking another term with an election scheduled for 23 June 2023.