What Might President Erdogan Say At The UNGA Which Will Receive The Most Applause And Support? Did He Use G20 Leaders’ Summit To Test Five Themes? Is There A Sixth Too?

What Might President Erdogan Say At The UNGA Which Will Receive The Most Applause And Support?

Did He Use G20 Leaders’ Summit Media Engagements In New Delhi, India, To Test Five Themes?

  • Continuing Efforts To Restart The Black Sea Grain Initiative

  • Expanding United Nations Security Council To Include India

  • Changing The Way Members Of The United Nations Security Council Are Selected So Every Country Has An Opportunity To Serve

  • The Necessity To Acknowledge The G7 And G20 Must Continue To Expand To Remain Relevant

  • Discussing Islamophobia And Asking For Help To Diminish It.  Embrace The Muslim Community, Learn About Islam Rather Than Have The Courage Of Ignorance

Might He Add A Sixth?  Use Of Sanctions

Recep Tayyip Erdogan, President of the Republic of Turkiye (2014- ), had much to say during the 2023 G20 Leaders’ Summit in New Delhi, India.  He was re-elected in May 2023 to a second and final five-year term.

His focus upon five (5) themes may have been a dress rehearsal for his 19 September 2023 address to the annual United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) in New York City, New York. 

  • Heads of state, heads of government, and designated representative remarks (expected to be limited to fifteen minutes each) are scheduled from 19 September 2023 to 29 September 2023. 

  • 19 September Morning: Brazil, United States, Colombia, Jordan, Poland, Cuba, Turkiye, Portugal, Qatar, South Africa, Turkmenistan, Ukraine, Guatemala, Hungary, Switzerland, Egypt, Kyrgyzstan.

If so, then the remarks will be well received, particularly by those “Global South” category countries.  For current members of the G7, G20, EU, and NATO, the themes would require their support or, at minimum, acquiesce or risk a backlash as proponents of change until that change disrupts the status quo.  Narendra Modi, Prime Minister of the Republic of India (2014- ), has focused his one-year leadership of the G20 on fracturing the status quo- which he concluded successfully at the 9/10 September G20 Leaders’ Summit in New Delhi, India, with, among other achievements, adding the fifty-five-country member African Union (AU) to the G20.

These are some of the statements delivered by President Erdogan during the 9/10 September 2023 G20 Leaders’ Summit:

Black Sea Grain Initiative (BSGI)

“I am not hopeless about the resumption of the grain corridor. This process may restart. However, Mr. [Antonio] Guterres [Secretary-General of the New York, New York-based United Nations (UN)] has a letter.  We will ask him to send a second letter updating the first one.  If he does so, a new development may happen on this issue as regards insurance and swift.  We will be following the issue.” President Erdogan

  • As the number of commercial vessels traversing (entering and existing) the Black Sea continues to increase (the most recent count is six since the government of the Russian Federation suspended its participation in the BSGI) outside the parameters of the BSGI without encountering any direct impact by the armed forces of the Russian Federation- meaning sinking commercial vessels, disabling commercial vessels, or successfully blockading ports in Ukraine, the less leverage exists for Vladimir Putin, President of the Russian Federation (2000-2008 and 2012- ) to threaten and the less leverage has President Erdogan and the United Nations to convince other countries of the necessity of re-establishing the BSGI. 

  • The government of the Russian Federation is requiring certain measures to be implemented involving banking, insurance, market availability, and product accessibility.  There is a Bell Curve to disrupting and threatening to disrupt.  At the beginning there is fear, so concern increases.  As fear abates, due to action or inaction, fear decreases.  Compounding issues for the BSGI is alternative routings have become operational- and while they are not as efficient and are more costly, they are workable.  The more options are there, the less value is the BSGI.   

Expansion Of G20 Membership

“This is a positive and favorable development. I believe that Africa’s [African Union] membership [in the G20] has revived the process.  The decision to admit Africa as a member was applauded loudly here.  This also made us happy.”  President Erdogan

“Ye Modi ki guarantee hain.” [This is Modi’s guarantee].  Narendra Modi, Prime Minister of the Republic of India (2014- )

Islamophobia

“Unfortunately, most of the countries that defend democracy and human rights are playing three monkeys in the face of this barbarism.  The burning of the holy Quran under police protection is an overt provocation, a hate crime.  No one can expect us to remain silent in the face of this… Through the proposals and efforts of our country, the attack on the holy books was also condemned in the G-20 declaration.”  President Erdogan

  • “What does play three monkeys mean?  A cultural symbol originating in Japan, the three wise monkeys—one covering his eyes, one his ears, and one his mouth—are known by their names Mizaru, Kikazaru, and Iwazaru.  They symbolize the proverbial saying, “See no evil. Hear no evil. Speak no evil”

Supporting India As A Permanent Member Of The United Nations Security Council

“We would be proud if a country like India became a permanent member of the UN Security Council.  As you know, the world is bigger and larger than five.  And when we say the world is larger than five, what we mean is that it’s not only about the US, UK, France, China, and Russia. We don’t want to have just these five countries on the Security Council.”  President Erdogan

Revising Selection Process For Non-Permanent Members Of The United Nations Security Council

“Right now, there are 15 members in the UNSC - five permanent and 10 by rotation.  What we propose is that all of them should be permanent members.  All nations should have an opportunity to be a member of the UN body by rotation.  As of now, the UN has 195 member countries.  So, we propose a rotational mechanism whereby each and every member, every single one of the 195 member countries, can potentially become a [United Nations Security Council] member.  This is what we propose.  What the five members say should not determine the voice of the whole world.  All 195 member countries, without making any distinction between permanent and non-permanent, should potentially be able to become a member of the Security Council.  Only then will the whole world be happy.”  President Erdogan

The Use Of Sanctions

Another issue for the government of Turkiye is the coercive and corrosive impact of unilateral, bilateral, and multilateral commercial, economic, financial, humanitarian, political, and military sanctions as instruments by governments (individually and collectively) to achieve changes in behavior by companies, governments, individuals, and organizations.   

The government of Turkiye has generally chosen to abide by sanctions implemented by the United Nations, but resist abiding by all sanctions implemented by a government (principally the United States) or group of governments (for example, the twenty-seven member Brussels, Belgium-based European Union (EU) of which the government of Turkiye is not among a member).

Increasingly, under-developed, lesser developed, developing, and some developed countries are seeking, individually and collectively, means to disrupt what they perceive as the hegemonic behavior of certain governments, most notably the United States, and groups of countries, most notably the EU.

  • Hegemony as defined by Merriam-Webster Dictionary: “preponderant influence or authority over others; the social, cultural, ideological, or economic influence exerted by a dominant group.

Composition Of Groups

  • United Nations Security Council (Permanent Members): China, France, Russian Federation, United Kingdom, United States.

  • Group of 7 (G7): (2014-Present) includes Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, United Kingdom, and United States. The Russian Federation was excluded in 2014 due to its military actions on the Crimean Peninsula.

  • Group of 20 (G20): Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, Republic of Korea, Mexico, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Turkiye, United Kingdom, United States, and the European Union (EU) representing collectively its twenty-seven country members. 

  • European Union (EU): Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, and Sweden.

  • North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO): United States, United Kingdom, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, Finland, France, Iceland, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Albania, Lithuania, Bulgaria, Montenegro, Croatia, Czech Republic, Poland, Estonia, Romania, Germany, Slovakia, Greece, Slovenia, Hungary, Spain, Turkiye, Latvia, and North Macedonia.  The 600-member Grand National Assembly of the Republic of Turkiye has yet to approve the ascension of the Kingdom of Sweden- which has no border with the Russian Federation.  The 199-member National Assembly of Hungary (Country Assembly) has yet to approve the ascension of the Kingdom of Sweden.  

LINK TO COMPLETE ANALYSIS IN PDF FORMAT

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