European Union Will Shift From Consensus To Majority Rules- And Ukraine Is The Trigger 

Commenced years earlier with local, regional, and federal election outcomes throughout the European Continent, but fueled significantly by the 2017 decision of the United Kingdom (England, Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland) to depart the then twenty-eight member European Union (EU), aided further during the Trump-Pence Administration (2017-2021), accelerated by the COVID-19 pandemic which began in January 2020, and then exacerbated by the 24 February 2022 invasion of the territory of Ukraine by the armed forces of the Russian Federation, the requirement that the EU approve decisions based upon “consensus” meaning unanimity, is headed toward extinction.  

Governments- and those who want to be the government in an increasing number of EU-member countries believe 24 February 2022 and its continuing aftermath has primed and fueled the effort to permanently reconstruct the “European Experiment” from one that has become a schoolyard dominated by those with financial strength and population to the determent of smaller-in-size countries. 

The thus far impact since 24 February 2022 upon all members of the EU: energy supplies in peril, energy costs increasing; supply chain disruptions, transportation costs increasing; food supplies of concern, food prices increasing; inflation increasing; interest rates increasing; populations nervous, angry, and don’t want to suffer because of a war they did not start, a war they are not participating in, and a war they believe the two waring parties can and should resolve themselves.  

Each of the aforementioned happenings, independently of one another, or collectively, would provide opportunities for those in government and those who want to replace those in government.  For change to happen, the victor may not be required to detail their remedy, their prescription for what impacts the population.  The victor may only need focus upon listing the problems and point in the direction of those in office.  Time for a change will be the message; details to follow. 

“You never want a serious crisis to go to waste. And what I mean by that [is] it’s an opportunity to do things that you think you could not do before.” - Rahm Emanuel (2008), then incoming Chief of Staff to Barack Obama, President of the United States (2009-2017).  Mr. Emanuel believed that the 2008 financial crisis in the United States afforded the incoming Obama-Biden Administration (2009-2017) the opportunity to “do things” they couldn’t otherwise- spending money.   

Today, the governments in Italy, Hungary, and Poland among others (potentially too Sweden) are leading an effort that if successful will result in “consensus” replaced with majority.  Unknown is how the term majority will be defined- simple (50% plus one), two-thirds (66%), seventy-five (75%), or a combination of each with different requirements for different issues. 

BERLIN (AP) 15 October 2022- German Chancellor Olaf Scholz on Saturday called for reforms of the European Union to make it fit for the admission of new countries as well as more military autonomy of the 27-country bloc.  Speaking at the Congress of the Party of European Socialists in Berlin, Scholz advocated for gradually abolishing the principle of unanimity for decisions in foreign policy, but also in other areas such as tax policy.  “I know that we still have a lot of convincing to do there,” the chancellor said. “But I also say clearly: if a geopolitical Europe is our aspiration, then majority decisions are a gain and not a loss of sovereignty.”  Currently, many EU decisions can only be made if all countries vote unanimously.  Scholz also supports more military autonomy of the EU. He called for coordinated procurement of weapons and equipment, the establishment of an EU rapid reaction force by 2025, and a EU headquarters for European armed forces.  “In Europe, we need better interplay between our defense efforts,” he said. “In the future, Europe will need a coordinated increase in capabilities ... we must confidently and jointly advance European defense.”