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Thoughts about today’s elections in Turkiye…. A Rheostat, Not A Switch

Thoughts about today’s elections in Turkiye….

A Rheostat, Not A Switch

Today voters in Turkiye determine the Erdogan Legacy.

If President Erdogan wins, he will have a final five years to further shape and importantly reshape what will be his legacy.

If President Erdogan loses, many of his decisions will continue for many years to define Turkiye- commercially, economically, financially, militarily, and politically.

If he loses, he will be remembered outside of Turkiye as a great mayor of the city of Istanbul, a good prime minister of Turkey, and a challenged, complicated president of Turkiye.

Different scenarios:  He wins presidency, loses 600-member Grand National Assembly.  He loses presidency, his party coalition retains control of Grand National Assembly. 

President Erdogan’s principal opponent, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, has a platform which includes returning to the Grand National Assembly many of the “executive presidency” powers exercised by President Erdogan.  Will he do so if he wins the presidency, but his coalition parties do not control the Grand National Assembly?  Meaning, he would cede “executive presidency” powers to the now opposition (President Erdogan’s party and those parties who support his party) who control the Grand National Assembly?

Regardless of who controls the Grand National Assembly, likely will be a vote to approve the ascension of the Kingdom of Sweden as the thirty-second country member of the Brussels, Belgium-based North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).

If President Erdogan loses, does he retire or remain in leadership, officially or unofficially, of his party and Grand National Assembly party coalition?

The election is not turning-off one switch and turning-on another switch.  This is a rheostat- many changes will take time.

President Erdogan has since 2014 succeeded upon making Turkiye better known, more relevant, more respected, and more feared.

During his tenure, Turkish Airlines has become an Airborne Embassy and Turkish Cargo has become an Airborne Chamber of Commerce.  Istanbul Airport (IST) has become the fifth busiest airport in the world.  Should not be surprised if during the next several years the government of Turkiye (Erdogan Administration or Kilicdaroglu Administration) disposes to the public its 49.13% shareholding in Turkish Airlines- which is worth billions of dollars.   

Regardless of the results of the election (first round- 14 May 2023 or second round- 28 May 2023), President Erdogan will need to shepherd the continuation of the Black Sea Grain Initiative which is scheduled to expire on 18 May 2023. 

  • Tangentially, President Erdogan used his leverage to obtain the return of two Turkish Air Force Airbus A400M military transport aircraft that were stranded in Ukraine on 24 February 2022.  The government of Turkiye confirmed on Friday the return of six Turkish merchant vessels stranded at ports in Ukraine.  There are approximately sixty merchant vessels stranded at ports in Ukraine.

LINK TO COMPLETE ANALYSIS IN PDF FORMAT