Kyiv, Minsk, Moscow Need Focus: How Much Suffering Is Too Much Suffering? How Many Coffins To Support A Tank? Hole In Ground, Coffin In Hole, Body In Coffin. Teenager Visits Her Friends.
Kyiv, Minsk, Moscow Need Focus On Answering: How Much Suffering Is Too Much Suffering? How Many Coffins To Support A Tank?
A hole in the ground, a coffin placed in that hole, and a body in that coffin.
In the early 1990’s, a diplomat posted to the then-named United States Interests Section (during the years when the United States and Republic of Cuba did not have formal diplomatic relations that was on the signage attached to what had been the Embassy of the United States) in the capital city of Havana, Republic of Cuba, shared a comment to convey how the government of the Republic of Cuba viewed the impact of commercial, economic, and political statutes, regulations, and policies of the government of the United States directed toward ostensibly the government of the Republic of Cuba, but impacting in totality the then-10.7 million citizens of the island.
“Fidel Castro [then President of the Council of State of the Republic of Cuba and First Secretary of the Communist Party of the Republic of Cuba] will ‘euphemistically convey’ to the President of the United States- ‘I am willing to let my people suffer. Are you willing to let my people suffer?’”
The heads of state for the three primary protagonists participating in the war are in Minsk, capital of the Republic of Belarus; Moscow, capital of the Russian Federation; and Kyiv, capital of Ukraine. The capitals are less than 500 miles (800 kilometers) from one another.
During each of the last three hundred-plus days, the same question that Fidel Castro might “euphemistically convey” is the same question that Alexander Lukashenko, President of the Republic of Belarus; Vladimir Putin, President of the Russian Federation; and Volodymyr Zelensky, President of Ukraine, should be asking to themselves and of one another.
On 24 February 2022, the armed forces of the Russian Federation invaded and further invaded the territory of Ukraine in what President Putin defined then as a Special Military Operation [SMO] and which on 22 December 2022 he redefined as a war. The initial invasion by the armed forces of the Russian Federation was in part from the territory of the Republic of Belarus.
The citizens of Ukraine have responded to both the SMO and to the war with the same ferocity as Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza Strip have engaged in their Intifadas.
Unhelpful to connect with reality by defining as failed decisions by President Putin and the efforts by the armed forces of the Russian Federation as they relate to Ukraine.
Have the goals as initially speculated and officially described by voices in Moscow disappointing? Yes. However, the reality is whatever mismatch between goals and objectives, and there certainly are, the armed forces of the Russian Federation occupy today more territory of Ukraine than on 23 February 2022. That may change, and certainly the armed forces of Ukraine will effort that result. As of today, however, the SMO and the war are not yet a failure for Moscow- that is yet to be determined.
To date, the war been equally measured by death, injury, destruction, third party economic pain, and an enormous misplacement of financial resources. Unknown to the public (and perhaps too by government leadership) remains the precise number of dead, wounded, maimed, missing, and held.
The United Nations Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) reported 17,831 civilian casualties in Ukraine- 6,884 dead (2,719 men, 1,832 women, 391 children, and 1,942 sex unknown) and 10,947 injured. However, the “OHCHR believes that the actual figures are considerably higher, as the receipt of information from some locations where intense hostilities have been going on has been delayed and many reports are still pending corroboration. This concerns, for example, Mariupol (Donetsk region), Izium (Kharkiv region), Lysychansk, Popasna, and Sievierodonetsk (Luhansk region), where there are allegations of numerous civilian casualties.”
General Mark Milley, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff at the United States Department of Defense (DOD), reported 40,000 civilians dead in Ukraine and more than 100,000 members of the armed forces of the Russian Federation dead or wounded.
Other reporting estimates 13,000 members of the armed forces of Ukraine dead and tens of thousands wounded.
If the precise numbers are known- and reasonable to believe that government intelligence agencies, ministries of defense, ministries of interior, and other data gathering institutions do have more data than they are sharing with the public, then there is one horrifying conclusion:
From 24 February 2022- and reasonable to add to the calculation from 24 February 2014 (when the armed forces of the Russian Federation invaded the Crimean Peninsula and Donbas Region (Donetsk Oblast and Luhansk Oblast)) in the territory of Ukraine, whatever the totality of dead, wounded, maimed, missing, and held has not yet reached a threshold of suffering to the level at which President Lukashenko, President Putin, and President Zelensky believe their respective citizens have no more to sacrifice.
That is worth repeating, though as a question- How many citizens of the Russian Federation and Ukraine, and potentially of Belarus, need to have died, been wounded, been maimed, gone missing, and be held before the governments in Moscow and Kyiv will halt the war? What are the numbers for President Putin and for President Zelensky? 10,000; 50,000; 100,000; 500,000; 750,000; one million?
The most profound and diabolical tragedy of this war is it is incestuous and those engaging in the incestuous behavior do not seem thus far to have interest in lessening the activity. Meaning in this reference that the same parties are funding the three primary protagonists.
Some government-operated entities and privately-operated entities in Belarus and the Russian Federation continue to be exempt from all or portions of sanctions implemented by the twenty-seven member European Union (EU), but neither supported nor implemented in totality by each member of the EU; Group of Seven (G7) Industrialized Countries (Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, United Kingdom, United States); and others including Australia and South Korea. Countries including the China, India, and Turkiye are not abiding by some, or all implemented sanctions. Thus, there remains a revenue stream, although constricted, and declining to both the government of Belarus and the government of the Russian Federation.
Some of same countries which have implemented sanctions (in whole or in part) against the government of Belarus and the government of the Russian Federation and their respective government-operated and privately-owned companies are importing products (or profiting by the transactions) from Belarus and the Russian Federation and providing services (or profiting by the transactions) to Belarus and the Russian Federation. These same countries are providing commercial, economic, humanitarian, political, and defense assistance to the government of Ukraine.
Until governments cease providing material support to Belarus, the Russian Federation, and Ukraine, the war will continue to have the fuel necessary to continue.
While territory contested may shift as armed forces advance and retreat, once a member of the armed services and a civilian have died, there is for them no further advance, no further retreat.
There is a hole in the ground, a coffin placed in that hole, and a body in that coffin. Then earth removed to create the hole is replaced- and the armed forces again roll their tanks and vehicles to advance and retreat as required.
In a moment from a documentary now in the editing process, a teenager in looks into the lens of the camera and shares that every day she visits her friends… in the cemetery.
Happy New Year.
