President Trump Has Drawn Blood Without Apocalyptic Results. Might Venezuela Be Next? China, Cuba, Russia & Turkey Remain Relevant
President Trump None-Too-Pleased That Staff Underestimated President Maduro
President Trump Embarrassed By Maduro Remaining In Power
Trump Doctrine: Deterrence And Imminent Are Rules For Engagement
Might A Dress Rehearsal Achieve What Sanctions Haven’t?
Options: Immunity To Leave, Scare To Resign, Or Assassination?
The Importance Of Executive Order 11905
President Trump Has Drawn Blood Without Apocalyptic Results; He’s Likely Developed A Taste For It
When made public that a drone operated by the United States Department of Defense launched two missiles that struck two vehicles near the Baghdad International Airport in Iraq, killing ten including the primary target, Major General Qassim Suleimani, there was a global yawn.
There are others who are candidates for either assassination or an attempted assassination which is so blatant, so precise, so obviously designed to miss, but so easily connected to the United States, that the message is electronic billboard-like: if the target wishes a peaceful retirement above-ground, better make travel reservations and include family and trusted aides. That’s the only option for any immunity.
Qassim Suleimani’s rank of Major General in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and Commander of the Quds Force did not define his true level of influence and operational control. In level of comparative significance, Major General Suleimani was compared to a combined Chairman of the seven-member Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) at the United States Department of Defense (DOD) and Commander of the United States Special Operations Command (USSOCOM).
Iran did not respond eye-for-an-eye: one Major General for another Major General. Rather, Iran launched missiles towards military bases in Iraq at which United States personnel were located- and did so in a manner where there was available advance notification to lessen or eliminate casualties. Iran may still try to kill a United States Major General or United States military personnel; for now, however, Iran is focusing strategically- the goal is to lessen overall the United States footprint in the Middle East. NOTE: On 16 January 2020, the United States Department of Defense reported eleven persons were injured during an 8 January 2020 strike by missiles launched from Iran onto an airbase in Iraq.
The execution of Major General Suleimani reinforced for President Trump the skeletal infrastructure requirements of his presidency- Meaningful Optics; Reinforce Red Tie Tough-Guy Swagger; Do What Predecessors Failed To Do; Not Do What Predecessors Did; Respond If Feeling Embarrassed Or Foolish.
President Trump is mocked for wearing to long his go-to color red tie. For him, the extended length is euphemism for a bull-fighters red cape- making certain that the bull (media, political base) can see it- the matador is the focus of the bull, but most importantly, mesmerizes the crowd (public).
Informative as to the gravitational instincts of the President is reporting about the process used by the Trump Administration to decide an appropriate response to intelligence gathering indicating Major General Suleimani was planning to attack four United States embassies and/or military installations.
President Trump was presented options developed by both careerists and political appointees. He distrusts careerists and political appointees have during the last three years focused upon delivering commercial, economic, political and military options whose dynamics all feature a singular theme: He will look strong. He will look bold. He will surprise. He will force the “deep state” to do his bidding rather than succumb to their bidding. The execution of Major General Suleimani accomplished those goals.
Most significantly is the lack of global push-back on the United States for President Trump sanctioning the execution of ten citizens of Iran and Iraq.
Has the United Nations General Assembly, United Nations Security Council, European Union, European Commission, NATO, World Court, OAS and World Trade Organization among other entities taken punitive measures impacting the United States? Iran has reported it will file a case in the World Court. Have any countries withdrawn their ambassadors from the United States or requested that United States ambassadors depart their countries? Have any countries placed trade embargos on the United States? No. Nothing but inconsistent rhetoric.
Which leads next to where? Who could be the next target for assassination? Kim Jong-un, leader of North Korea (The Hermit Kingdom) is safe because President Trump believes he has a productive (self-defined loving) relationship with Chairman Kim. President Bashar al-Assad of Syria is safe, primarily because Russia and Turkey haven’t defined outcomes in Syria as failures of President Trump, but rather failures of those surrounding him- and President Barack Obama. Important distinctions for the President.
The Trump Administration considers the country of Venezuela to be in the United States sphere of influence. The Trump Administration considers the government of Venezuela to be a contagion, a menace. Is it also a “Clear and Present Danger?”
The Trump Administration, led by the politically-appointed infrastructure within the National Security Council at The White House and at the United States Department of State and supported by selected members of the United States Congress has consistently, publicly and privately, repeated that all options are on the table, and that includes military options.
Often, mention of a military option is to project bravado rather than be viewed as a substantive strategy for regime change or changing the behavior of the regime in Venezuela. But, is it only bravado?
The President of Venezuela, Nicolas Maduro could be a likely candidate for an assassination or an attempted assassination which is so blatant, so precise, so obviously designed to miss, and so easily connected to the United States, that the message is electronic billboard-like: if President Maduro wishes a peaceful retirement above-ground, he had better make travel reservations for him and his family and trusted aides. That’s the only option for any immunity.
The list of grievances by the United States toward President Maduro include, but are not limited to: subverting democracy, subverting rule of law, permitting trafficking in narcotics, supporting international terrorist organizations, theft of state property, promoting third-country conflicts (Colombia), supporting the government of the Republic of Cuba, engaging in illicit transactions with Russia and China. Venezuela is subject to sanctions by the United States Department of State and United States Department of the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC). However, the OFAC has continued to grant licenses for United States-based energy companies to operate in Venezuela.
The United States Department of State has not designated Venezuela as a State Sponsor of Terrorism. “Countries determined by the Secretary of State to have repeatedly provided support for acts of international terrorism are designated pursuant to three laws: section 6(j) of the Export Administration Act, section 40 of the Arms Export Control Act, and section 620A of the Foreign Assistance Act. Taken together, the four main categories of sanctions resulting from designation under these authorities include restrictions on U.S. foreign assistance; a ban on defense exports and sales; certain controls over exports of dual use items; and miscellaneous financial and other restrictions. Designation under the above-referenced authorities also implicates other sanctions laws that penalize persons and countries engaging in certain trade with state sponsors. Currently there are four countries designated under these authorities: the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (North Korea), Iran, Sudan, and Syria.”
From Bloomberg: “The U.S. has underestimated Russia and Cuba’s ability to prop up the Venezuelan regime, envoy Elliott Abrams told reporters, acknowledging frustration that President Nicolas Maduro has clung to power despite a pressure campaign to oust him…. Russian companies now handle more than 70% of Venezuela’s oil, including in ship-to-ship transfers, and the beleaguered nation’s economy has become more dependent on Moscow generally.”
Russia could assist President Trump by arranging for President Maduro to vacate the Presidential Palace in Caracas. However, such a decision would not necessarily be in the interests of the Russian Federation and the Republic of Cuba would object unless its commercial interests are protected. China and Turkey could also assist President Trump by supporting an orderly departure for President Maduro. But, do Russia, China and Turkey want President Trump to be re-elected to a second term in November 2020? The Trump Administration has enacted far more sanctions against each government than predicted; President Trump has distanced himself from some of the sanctions to preserve his self-defined personal relationships with heads of government.
The primary obstacle to a solution to the Venezuela problem is the absence of trust by any of the relevant state actors. China, Republic of Cuba, Russia, Turkey and Venezuela do not believe that any agreement signed by the Trump Administration will have validity. Each believes the Trump Administration will renege, perhaps not immediately, but eventually. When the signature of the President of the United States is lacking credibility, the options for resolving the Venezuela problem lessen.
Will assisting with Venezuela lead to a lessening or removal of sanctions against China, Russia and Turkey? Perhaps, but for each country, the United States Congress has increasingly been proactive in requiring the Trump Administration to levy sanctions despite objections. However, the Trump Administration has successfully delayed the implementation of some sanctions.
Reporting suggests that the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for Venezuela has declined 73% since 2013- when Vice President Maduro became President Maduro upon the death of President Hugo Chavez.
According to a report published by the United Nations, Special Action Forces described as “death squads” murdered 5,287 people in 2018 and another 1,569 by mid-May of 2019; according to independent groups, the actual number of murders could be more than 9,000. According to the report, “There are reasonable grounds to believe that many of these killings constitute extrajudicial executions committed by the security forces.”
The Trump Administration has not shared that President Maduro has responsibility for deaths of United States nationals.
The only impediment to President Trump approving the assassination of President Maduro is the Executive Order 11905 signed in 1976 by President Gerald F. Ford. That is not a statute; President Trump may ignore it or change it.
Executive Order 11905 includes: “No employee of the United States Government shall engage in, or conspire to engage in, political assassination.” Presidents Jimmy Carter and Ronald Reagan reaffirmed the Executive Order. The current Executive Order 12333 includes: “No person employed by or acting on behalf of the United States Government shall engage in, or conspire to engage in, assassination.”
The Washington DC-based Organization of American States (OAS) is not inclined to support the assassination of a head of state or head of government in the hemisphere irrespective from which capital directed the planning and operation. While there are distinct and deep fissures amongst OAS membership as to the behavior of governments, assassinations and coups are usually considered impractical and undemocratic- particularly when crafted in Washington DC. However, there would likely be tacit, and perhaps public displays of regret that the situation in Venezuela, the decisions by President Maduro, had led to only one viable outcome- his death.
The governments of Brazil, Colombia and Peru among others would have collective relief as they would urge (require) the 4.8 million refugees entering and then disrupting their countries during the last five years to return to Venezuela.
This is where the global response is instructive for the decision by President Trump to approve the assassination of Major General Suleimani. Anything considered a hostile act in the Middle East inevitably impacts stock markets, bond markets, currency markets and central bank decisions. There were impacts, but most market indices have recovered- and increased in value. Why? In some measure because there is always another unknown event which will come, and which will go until the next and the next and so on. The financial markets are used to uncertainty and model it into their outcome analysis, thus profiting from it.
The drone strikes in Iraq primarily impacted these constituencies: ethnicity (Arab, Persian) and religious (Shia, Sunni). Weeks after the execution of General Suleimani, the constituencies continue to pretty much despise one another, but they are not at all-out-war with one another. Every situation is manageable primarily because there is always another situation to follow which requires immediate attention.
If President Trump were to approve the assassination of President Maduro, what would be the consequences? Condemnation from allies and enemies? Yes. While the United Nations General Assembly would condemn the United States, any resolution proposed by a member of the United Nations Security Council would be vetoed by the United States. Would some governments, particularly in The Americas recall their ambassadors and request the departure of United States ambassadors? Yes. Would those ambassadors return? Yes.
Oil prices would spike. President Trump does not care because the United States economy is no longer critically impacted by demonstrative changes in oil prices. Venezuela’s oil output has been decreased to an insignificant component of world supply. The type of oil produced in Venezuela is of use to refineries in the United States.
A Venezuela absent President Maduro would cease subsidies for oil exports to the Republic of Cuba; cease employment agreements for Republic of Cuba nationals who provide healthcare and other services in Venezuela; permit Venezuela to re-engage with global capital markets; repair oil facilities, increase oil production (which may decrease global prices); and replace gold reserves.
Could President Trump survive an almost certain bipartisan efforts in the United States Congress to impeach (House of Representatives) and then remove (United States Senate) him from office if he were to permit the assassination of President Maduro? If the assassination were to happen prior to the November 2020 election, given of the complexion of party membership in each chamber, he would be acquitted. If he is re-elected, and party control remains in 2021 as it does in 2020, he would then too be acquitted by the United States Senate.
The primary reason that President Maduro has not and will not readily agree to any United States-led effort to negotiate him out of office is a lack of trust. Whatever promises of safe passage and immunity the Trump Administration were to make to President Maduro, President Diaz-Canel, President Putin, President Xi and President Erdogan would have any confidence in any promise- signed or not.
A brazen mock-attempted assassination might be the most initially palpable as the result would reinforce the tough-guy image of President Trump.
Would, however, President Maduro receive the message from a dress-rehearsal and pack his bags? He would need to be convinced that a dress-rehearsal would be soon followed by a full-on performance... and the final scene is bloody.
Until there is trust that the United States will abide by any agreement reached amongst the relevant actors- Venezuela, Cuba, Russia, Turkey and China- there will expectantly remain a potent obstacle to a resolution.