The Problem For Guarantors Signing Ukraine-Russia Peace Treaty? They Must Agree To Directly Go To War With The Russian Federation.

Guarantors? 

The Russian Federation will position that it need pay no reparations nor contribute to funding for infrastructure repair and replacement in those areas of Ukraine territory which will remain under control of the Russian Federation. 

President Zelensky must focus upon the terms of any agreement reaching past the Putin Administration to who next arrives to the largest office in the Kremlin and how that individual believes the role of the Russian Federation should be globalized.  Model the outcomes and select the least undesirable. 

Who believes President Putin (2012- and 2000-2008; and Prime Minister 2008-2012) or his successor would not abrogate conditions previously agreed to by the Russian Federation:  The 1997 Treaty on Friendship, Cooperation, and Partnership and 1994 Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances signed by then-President Boris Yeltsin (1991-1999) who preceded then-Prime Minister Putin who would as president sign the 2014 Minsk Agreement.  The Russian Federation led by President Putin has abrogated conditions of the treaty, memorandum, and agreement. 

Any end-of-war document signed by President Vladimir Putin and President Zelensky might be best written using disappearing ink and written upon dissoluble paper.   

The challenge for Ukraine and Russian Federation is to forge a document upon which are the words that will end the war is to convince political leadership in countries to affix their names, on behalf of their government (and future governments- unless repudiated by a successor government), their country, their nation, their state, to a document or series of documents which obligate them to engage in direct military conflict with the Russian Federation.   

Ukraine is requesting that each signatory provide, individually and collectively, to support Ukraine in any future invasion by the Russian Federation of the territory of Ukraine as if Ukraine was a member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).  Ukraine has suggested Canada, Germany, Israel (non-NATO), Italy, Poland, Turkey, United Kingdom, and United States.   

There are three (3) clauses from two treaties (thirty signing one and twenty-seven signing the other) which will impact negatively upon the decision-making processes of the potential signatories:

What is the language of Article 5 in the Treaty signed by each country member of the thirty members of NATO: The Parties agree that an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all and consequently they agree that, if such an armed attack occurs, each of them, in exercise of the right of individual or collective self-defence recognised by Article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations, will assist the Party or Parties so attacked by taking forthwith, individually and in concert with the other Parties, such action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force, to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area.  Any such armed attack and all measures taken as a result thereof shall immediately be reported to the Security Council. Such measures shall be terminated when the Security Council has taken the measures necessary to restore and maintain international peace and security.

What is the language of the Mutual Defence Clause (Article 42.7 TEU) of the Treaty signed by each of the twenty-seven country members of the European Union (EU):  If a Member State is the victim of armed aggression on its territory, the other Member States shall have towards it an obligation of aid and assistance by all the means in their power, in accordance with Article 51 of the United Nations Charter. This shall not prejudice the specific character of the security and defence policy of certain Member States.  Commitments and cooperation in this area shall be consistent with commitments under the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation, which, for those States which are members of it, remains the foundation of their collective defence and the forum for its implementation.   

What is the language of the Solidarity clause (Article 222 TFEU) of the Treaty signed by each of the twenty-seven country members of the European Union (EU): 1. The Union and its Member States shall act jointly in a spirit of solidarity if a Member State is the object of a terrorist attack or the victim of a natural or man-made disaster. The Union shall mobilise all the instruments at its disposal, including the military resources made available by the Member States, to: (a) — prevent the terrorist threat in the territory of the Member States; — protect democratic institutions and the civilian population from any terrorist attack; — assist a Member State in its territory, at the request of its political authorities, in the event of a terrorist attack; (b) assist a Member State in its territory, at the request of its political authorities, in the event of a natural or man-made disaster.  2. Should a Member State be the object of a terrorist attack or the victim of a natural or man-made disaster, the other Member States shall assist it at the request of its political authorities.  To that end, the Member States shall coordinate between themselves in the Council.  3. The arrangements for the implementation by the Union of the solidarity clause shall be defined by a decision adopted by the Council acting on a joint proposal by the Commission and the High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy. The Council shall act in accordance with Article 31(1) of the Treaty on European Union where this decision has defence implications. The European Parliament shall be informed.  For the purposes of this paragraph and without prejudice to Article 240, the Council shall be assisted by the Political and Security Committee with the support of the structures developed in the context of the common security and defence policy and by the Committee referred to in Article 71; the two committees shall, if necessary, submit joint opinions.  4. The European Council shall regularly assess the threats facing the Union in order to enable the Union and its Member States to take effective action.