NATO Summit Perspectives: Missing Curiosity? Erdogan/Orban, Yermak’s “Ordinary” Insult, BRICS/SCO, Irreversible Not Synonym For Yes, What Does “Prevail” Mean?, Biden Meeting Putin?
Letter From Washington DC
2024 NATO Summit Perspectives: Where’s The Curiosity? Like A Sloth, Erdogan/Orban, Yermak’s “Ordinary” Insult, BRICS/SCO, Irreversible Not A Synonym For Yes- It Means Reversible, What Does “Prevail” Mean?
President Biden On Speaking With President Putin- Yes, No, Yes, No… Maybe?
The most visible take-away from the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) Summit in Washington DC was a lack of curiosity shown visibly by Joseph Biden, 46th President of the United States (2021- ).
For all his character flaws, and there are many and they are substantive, Donald Trump, 45th President of the United States (2017-2021), was and remains curious, albeit sometimes dangerously so. When dining at Mar-a-Lago, his private club in Palm Beach, Florida, he will “work the room” shaking hands, patting guests on the shoulder, seeking affirmation. He wants to know what is going on- and wants others to see that he wants to know what is going on; and he recoils at railings designed to lessen his opportunities to be curious.
Unknown is whether President Biden has the curiosity, but physical and cognitive limitations deter a robust, buoyant performance. Or has his bandwidth narrowed due in part to a chronic dependance upon others. First staff in the United States Congress for his thirty-six years in the United States Senate and then immediately followed by eight years of staff dependence while Vice President of the United States (2009-2017), then again from 2017-2021 while connected to educational institutions, and then when president of the United States.
This is not to suggest President Biden should float about gatherings as did Fred Astaire on the dance floor, but unsettling when the President of the United States seems more likened to Buddha where followers would present themselves to him rather than a politician and commander-in-chief who seeks opportunities for engagement.
President Biden continues to reinforce that he is more actor and less head of state given his quite visible dependance upon a script for even the most basic performance.
At the two NATO Summit dinners hosted by President Biden, he was not moving table-to-table to engage directly with each guest- as a host would normally do. He was led into the venue, seated, ate, delivered scripted remarks, returned to his seat, then departed. Painful to watch as he resembled more the movement cadence of a sloth rather than the energy that would be expected when hosting thirty-two (32) heads of state and heads of government.
During live video feeds from the room with the circular table where the heads of state and heads of government convene for their sessions, before the sessions commence heads of state and heads of government are shown mingling, standing one-to-one and in small groups. They are interacting with one another. They are engaging with one another.
This morning, in advance of Session II, there was Edi Rama, Prime Minister of Albania (2013- ), sitting at his designated seat while engaged in conversation with an unidentified gentleman- who was using the seat designated for the Republic of Korea. Groups of heads of state would speak with one another. Groups of heads of government would speak with one another.
One head of state is absent from these casual interactions/engagements. President Biden. He enters sessions last- and today forty minutes late for Session II. The Live feed showed Giorgia Meloni, Prime Minister of Italy (2022- ), glancing at her watch, rolling her eyes, indicating impatience with the delay.
Disappointing for President Biden not to engage publicly and collectively with Recep Tayyip Erdogan, President of the Republic of Turkiye (2014- ), and Viktor Orban, Prime Minister of Hungary (2010- , 1998-2002), given they each met recently with Vladimir Putin, President of the Russian Federation (2000-2008 and 2012- ), and Xi Jinping, President of the People’s Republic of China (2012- ).
Volodymyr Zelensky, President of Ukraine (2019- ), during a surprisingly not full in attendance media event said he had not sought out Prime Minister Orban during the NATO Summit.
About Prime Minister Orban’s visit with President Putin, President Zelensky shared “Can Orbán ever become a mediator between Ukraine and Russia? No.” Because Hungary is too small a country to matter to President Putin.
President Zelenskyy criticized Narendra Modi, Prime Minister of India (2014- ), for his recent meeting with President Putin as a “huge disappointment and a devastating blow to peace efforts.”
President Zelensky maintains China, European Union (EU), India, Turkiye, and United States are among the indispensable countries which have leverage enough to engage successfully with President Putin. Yet, President Zelensky has spent almost every day since 24 February 2022 criticizing, demeaning, insulting, and ridiculing those same leaders he espouses are essential to assist Ukraine: President Xi, Prime Minister Modi, President Erdogan, and President Biden.
President Erdogan is seeking to re-establish the Black Sea Grain Initiative (BSGI) which was implemented on 27 July 2022 from negotiations by the government of the Russian Federation, government of Turkiye, government of Ukraine, and the United Nations (UN). The BSGI was not renewed by the government of the Russian Federation and expired on 22 July 2023. The BSGI provides multinational leverage to negotiate successfully other issues.
President Erdogan continues to seek a focus by the NATO alliance towards the operations of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) within the Palestinian territory of Gaza. Thus far, the NATO alliance has rejected consensus positions relating to Gaza.
Engagement with President Putin is only possible through those heads of state and heads of government who engage with President Putin. That generally is defined by countries who have commercial, economic, financial, and political interests with the Russian Federation and where the Russian Federation has commercial, economic, financial, and political interests. President Zelensky is unhelpful when condemning those interests which are precisely the foundation for achieving what he desires- and end to the Russian Federation-Ukraine war.
NATO has stated China “has become a decisive enabler of Russia’s war against Ukraine through its so-called “no limits” partnership and its large-scale support for Russia’s defence industrial base.”
President Zelensky was seated next to President Erdogan during the NATO-Ukraine Council session and was in a small group engaging with President Erdogan prior to the beginning of the session.
While there are heads of state and heads of government who are NATO members and/or among the twenty-seven member countries of the EU, if the goal of NATO is to seek an end to the Russian Federation-Ukraine war, would not and should not there be a curiosity as to what might have been conveyed, indicated, suggested, or even body language that might be helpful to NATO and the EU from the visits with President Putin by President Erdogan and Prime Minister Orban? Where was the Biden-Erdogan-Orban trilateral? The Zelensky-Erdogan-Orban trilateral? The Biden-Zelensky-Erdogan-Orban quad?
Today, at a session of the NATO Public Forum, Andrew Yermak, Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, shared that “ordinary Americans” support Ukraine and that Ukraine “respects the choices of the American people.” First, Americans are not ordinary. They are Americans. Mr. Yermak’s statement is condescending- which is not the first time he has been condescending when discussing choices made relating to Ukraine by the American people- and by their elected representatives. Second, the government of Ukraine does not respect the choices of the American people. Since 24 February 2022, the Zelensky Administration has continuously antagonized, criticized, and insulted the Biden-Harris Administration and members of the United States Congress.
The twelve-page 5,572-word “Washington Summit Declaration issued by the Heads of State and Government participating in the meeting of the North Atlantic Council in Washington, D.C. 10 July 2024” is an outcome from months of effort by representatives of the thirty-two country member delegations to craft a document digestible to the most skeptical members rather than a document reflecting an expansive unanimous consensus reaching for as much as possible.
The inclusion of “irreversible” is another in a series of efforts to create a means to avoid using the word “yes” when examining the trajectory for NATO membership for Ukraine. Everything is irreversible- particularly a political decision. The heads of state and heads of government accepting the document are likely not to be in office when Ukraine would become a member of NATO. The same can be said for EU membership for Ukraine. Likely leadership of countries in the EU will not be in office when Ukraine becomes a member of the EU.
President Biden shared that “Russia will not prevail in Ukraine.” What precisely does this mean? President Putin did intend from 24 February 2022 to conquer the internationally-recognized territory of Ukraine. He failed in that endeavor. Does he retain the desire? Yes, he does. Does he have today the means to achieve that initial endeavor? No, he does not. For almost two years, there has been no meaningful change to the approximately eighteen percent (18%) of the internationally-recognized territory of Ukraine occupied by the armed forces of the Russian Federation.
Will the armed forces of the Russian Federation use nuclear weapons within the internationally-recognized territory of Ukraine? No. If the government of the Russian Federation declares victory by retaining the real estate it currently occupies, will that provide the foundation for the armed forces of the Russian Federation to attack NATO member countries? No. Even if the armed forces of the Russian Federation were to control the internationally-recognized territory of Ukraine, that would not be the precursor to World War III. Presenting that scenario is an essential component to the marketing effort in support of the government of Ukraine. The ultimate goal of President Zelensky is for NATO to operate militarily within the internationally-recognized territory of Ukraine and directly engaging the armed forces of the Russian Federation.
The most significant problem for the government of Ukraine is an increasing number of companies and financial institutions developing, re-developing operations in areas in the eastern portions of Ukraine. This means they have modeled the most likely outcome is for the armed forces of the Russian Federation to remain in control of existing real estate. They are convinced that the armed forces of the Russian Federation will remain in control of approximately 18% of the internationally-recognized territory of Ukraine.
So, do the words “not prevail” mean the armed forces of the Russian Federation will withdraw completely, on their own volition or with a push from the internationally-recognized territory of Ukraine or the armed forces of the Russian Federation will not gain additional real estate and the current military lines of control will be the baseline for negotiations to bring the Russian Federation-Ukraine war to a temporary cessation or permanent conclusion.
On 24 February 2022, the armed forces of the Russian Federation invaded and further invaded the territory of Ukraine in what Vladimir Putin, President of the Russian Federation (2000-2008 and 2012- ), defined as a Special Military Operation [SMO] then on 22 December 2022 he redefined as a war. The initial invasion of Ukraine by the armed forces of the Russian Federation was in part from the territory of Belarus.
The war between the Russian Federation and Ukraine did not commence on 24 February 2022. The roots began their trajectories on 20 February 2014 when the armed forces of the Russian Federation invaded the Crimean Peninsula and the area known as the Donbas Region (Donetsk Oblast and Luhansk Oblast).
For the member countries of NATO and the EU, the question their political leadership must continually answer to their taxpayers and to their voters is how much it is worth to their taxpayers and to their voters to maintain funding for a war where the military lines of control are not moving- and which has cost taxpayers collectively nearing US$400 billion during the first twenty-nine months. Will NATO and EU leadership ask their respective taxpayers to spend US$100 billion or more annually to make a point when the armed forces of the Russian Federation are unable to obtain more real estate and the armed forces of Ukraine are unable to retake real estate?
Michael McCaul (R-Texas), chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee of the United States House of Representatives, said this week that the armed forces of Ukraine must have some impressive territorial gains, absent which will result in a decline in support for spending relating to Ukraine.
Elasticity Theory will continue to constrain the government of Ukraine and the armed forces of Ukraine.
When President Biden continues to maintain that he “brought NATO together” after 24 February 2022, this is not accurate. The decisions by President Putin and the responses by President Zelensky are the primary reasons NATO is doing what it is doing. The addition of Finland and Sweden as members of NATO was not due to President Biden. It was a result of the armed forces of the Russian Federation invading further into the internationally-recognized territory of Ukraine.
“While designing the steps to be taken to support Ukraine, we also maintain our principled stance not to make NATO a party to the war,” shared President Erdogan. Unfortunately, NATO has become, incrementally, a party to the war. The last nineteen months has morphed into the armed forces of the Russian Federation against NATO. Yes, some NATO member countries are providing direct and indirect support at differing levels, and some NATO member countries are not providing direct support. Call it a proxy war. NATO is a party to the Russian Federation-Ukraine war because the definition of “party” is defined differently amongst members of NATO.
For example from NATO: “7. As we continue to intensify our cooperation and strengthen Ukraine’s political integration with NATO, the Alliance is reinforcing the NATO Representation to Ukraine (NRU), and the Secretary General has decided to appoint a NATO Senior Representative to head the NRU and to act as a focal point for NATO’s engagement with Ukrainian authorities in Kyiv.”
There are voices who maintain a second Trump Administration (2025-2029) would resemble a lapdog, not only willing, but eager to please President Putin. A reminder the Trump-Pence Administration (2017-2021) imposed many commercial, economic, financial, and political sanctions upon the public and private sectors in the Russian Federation, as well as, the public and private sectors in the People’s Republic of China. There was distance between statements by President Trump and decisions by the Trump-Pence Administration.
At his end-of-summit media session, President Biden shared that he would meet with President Putin. Then said he would not meet with President Putin. Then said he would meet with President Putin. Problems are solved not when those who agree speak with one another. Problems are solved when those who disagree speak with one another. Is saving hundreds of billions of dollars of United States taxpayer borrowed-funds worth President Biden taking a meeting? It should be.
There will continue to be countries who are members of NATO and/or members of the EU who will seek membership in BRICS and SCO as they view each entity as an opportunity to expand commercial, economic, and financial relationships benefiting their respective taxpayers and voters. There will additional entities created based upon demography and geography and existing entities will seek to increase their visibility.
BRICS: Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, Iran, Egypt, Ethiopia, United Arab Emirates. Saudi Arabia considering membership.
Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO): China, Russia, Belarus, India, Iran, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Pakistan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan.
North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO): United States, United Kingdom, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, Finland, France, Iceland, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Albania, Lithuania, Bulgaria, Montenegro, Croatia, Czech Republic, Poland, Estonia, Romania, Germany, Slovakia, Greece, Slovenia, Hungary, Spain, Turkiye, Latvia, and North Macedonia, Sweden.
European Union (EU): Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden.
Group of 7 (G7): (2014-Present) includes Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, United Kingdom, and United States. The Russian Federation was excluded in 2014 due to its military actions on the Crimean Peninsula.
Group of 20 (G20): Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Republic of Korea, Russian Federation, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Turkiye, United Kingdom, United States. BRICS: Argentina, Brazil, China, Egypt, Ethiopia, India, Iran, Russian Federation, China, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, United Arab Emirates.
United Nations Security Council (UNSC): China, France, Russian Federation, United Kingdom, United States. Ten non-permanent members elected for two-year terms by the General Assembly (with end of term year): Algeria (2025), Ecuador (2024), Guyana (2025), Japan (2024), Malta (2024), Mozambique (2024), Republic of Korea (2025), Sierra Leone (2025), Slovenia (2025), Switzerland (2024).