24 February 2022 

This morning at 5:00 am the day was beginning with a bright blue sky and crisp temperature in Kharkiv, Ukraine, the country’s second-largest city, located in the northeast region of Ukraine, approximately twenty-six miles from the border with the Russian Federation, the first projectiles delivered from forces of the Russian Federation began their journey to the earth that is the territory of Ukraine, a country, nation, of 43 million.  Death arrived too.  People were on the streets and then they were gone- told by the mayor to remain home.  Kharkiv is Ukraine’s technology hub. 

By 11:00 am and then continuing with frequency and intensity, the number of projectiles and the nearness of the projectiles increased.  The unmistakable deep “thud” and the pounding sounds- which instinctively one counts and waits to count- one, two, three, four… and the billowing smoke.   

When the impacts were heard everyone outside paused, looked up, scanned the horizon, tried to confirm the location, and then walked a bit more swiftly.  Those indoors went to windows or walked outside to gain perspective.   

A young server at the second-floor restaurant in a hotel when asked how she was holding up, her eyes glistened- tears formed, but did not trace the contours of her face.  Through her black surgical mask, “Why are they doing this to my country?  These adults are supposed to be preparing our future, not destroying it before our eyes.” 

When hotel staff learned of guests next destinations, they would ask if someone might send along an email upon arrival- to confirm that there was in fact an arrival and to learn the conditions at the next destination. 

At 2:30 pm the first of seven tanks, mostly refurbished TU’s from those delivered when Ukraine was one of the fifteen republics of the U.S.S.R., rumbled quickly creating a long cloud of dust along the wide expanse of boulevard which lies in front of the main railway station in Kharkiv. 

Some people took pictures.  Most, however, stood- staring.  Not shaking their head in disbelief.  Not turning away.  Not gesturing in any manner.  Just standing.  As if thinking- this can’t possibly be happening, so I’m not going to get too excited.  There were also those who glanced and went about their activities. 

Some train stations were active.  Along train routes could be seen columns of Ukrainian military- trucks with troops atop, trailers with cannons.  There remains concern that rail lines in the direction of Hungary, Poland, Romania, and Slovakia might be disabled.  Airports are not operational; some bombarded. 

Fundamental to appreciate the position of Russian Federation President Putin is his publicly stated (and privately observed) belief that Ukraine is not a country, it is an anachronism crafted absent any right from the creator; shades of China’s position relating to Taiwan. 

The citizens of the central and eastern portions of Ukraine, those “occupied” and those “unoccupied” share a collective sadness, and weariness when encountering citizens of the United States, Canada, United Kingdom, and other countries whose embassies have closed in the capital, Kyiv.  They are appreciative of the effort shown.  They are sad too, “Thank you for being here, but where are the others?”   

There are journalists everywhere- with each team having a locally-hired handler.  Some media organizations travel large; others venture out quietly.  There is an inescapable performance artistry that is always omnipresent during a conflict- and quite quickly media companies craft commercials highlighting their presence- sometimes there seems more self-promotion during an hour than there is reporting.  There are some television personalities that do not need to be in Ukraine; producers will quietly share that Ukraine is helpful for “street cred.”    

Gatherers of intelligence, of which there are hundreds speaking dozens of languages roaming throughout the country, are noticeable.  Ukrainians would prefer people wearing military uniforms and carrying weapons.  They know, however, there is far greater interest by outsiders in monitoring what the Russian Federation is doing to Ukraine and in Ukraine rather than how the Ukrainians are defending themselves.   

For the Russian Federation, Ukraine is another Opening Night- with perhaps more performances to come.  Georgia, Moldova, Syria, and Crimean Peninsula were previously produced performances courtesy of the Russian Federation.   

Ukrainians want to believe that the United States, NATO members, EU members, and other “democracies” care about Ukraine.  The reality is they know that the G7 members and G20 members don’t care too much; meaning not enough to risk the death of a uniformed member of the armed services or a diplomat.  The outside will neither risk nor embrace a military conflict with the Russian Federation because of Ukraine.  Just as they won’t with China because of Taiwan, with Israel because of the Golan Heights or expanded settlements.  Just as they won’t likely if Turkey, a NATO member, and onetime active candidate for EU membership, was to seize the portion of Cyprus not under its control. 

What the decisions impacting Ukraine since 2014 (annexation of the Crimean Peninsula) and before that in Georgia (Abkhazia and Ossetia) by President Putin have laid bare for all to see are the limitations of democracies, the aversion to military conflict to prevent or end a military conflict, and the preferred use of commercial, economic, and political sanctions. 

Few politicians want to welcome home body bags.  They will endure higher prices for oil, natural gas, and appliances- they can craft messages to deflect blame to third parties. 

The United States and other countries should have not closed their embassies in Kyiv.  Embassies have remained operational during conflicts (in “conflict zones”) in Iraq, in Syria, and in Vietnam, among other locales; during World War I and World War II.   

In Ukraine, however, the exodus, excepting for the moment France and China among others, has meaningfully harmed the already fragile psyche of the citizenry of Kyiv specifically and in other villages, towns, and cities throughout Ukraine. 

Far better would have been, and would still have value now, for rather than the United States taxpayer sending billions of dollars in assistance and in loan guarantees (meaning the funds need to be repaid), more practical would have been for the United States Embassy to be fully illuminated- with lights focused upon the United States flag atop the pole in front of the structure.  With United States Embassy staff holding meetings, working to assist United States companies who have a desire to export to, import from, and provide services within Ukraine.  With the United States Embassy guarded by United States Marines. 

The departure signaled that the United States believed the Russian Federation would attack Kyiv and not prepare for the safety of the embassies and their respective staffs.  That the Russian Federation would deliberately or through ruthless recklessness murder diplomats, officers, and members of their families, and United States Marines.  That the Russian Federation would hold diplomats hostage.  To President Putin, it demonstrated that the collective opposition was more afraid of him than he should be afraid of them.    

The United States should never be the first to leave- the country with the largest economy, largest military, must not lead from behind.  

President Putin is likely not to remove military assets from Ukraine, return the Crimean Peninsula to Ukraine, or return the areas of Abkhazia and Ossetia to Georgia.  He believes that his belief in his interests, in how he manages the Russian Federation, is stronger, has greater resiliency than does the collective opposition abroad to his decisions. 

The invasion of Ukraine will test that theory.  If the Russian Federation is successful and maintains control of Ukraine the result will quite harmfully provide a script for other governments to follow.  If the Russian Federation is unsuccessful, and the definition of that will be hotly contested, then the guardrails enacted after World War II will have been tested, will have faulted, but may not have failed in their entirety.    

While there are no consumers seeking Russia-built vehicles to place in their garages, or Russia-built televisions to watch their favorite FIFA football match, or Russia-built wireless device application that school-age children cannot do without…. There remains a global need and desire for the natural resources, agricultural commodities, and military hardware exported by the Russian Federation.  The country has a constituency. 

There is not an elected head of state or head of government who has not lamented, in public and in private, that their ability to lead, to decide, to implement, would be better served if they had the authority, the power, of an autocrat.  Not necessarily in perpetuity, but at minimum nominally, for specific periods of time.  Some of the leaders look with envy at some of the powers wielded by President Putin. 

These limitations are the stress points that are self-imposed upon country “democracies” and the NATO membership, and the European Union membership. 

President Putin has spent the last twenty years implementing laws, regulations, and policies designed to withstand sanctions- and he has followed how sanctions have failed to achieve stated goals relating to countries including China, Cuba, Iran, Nicaragua, North Korea, Russia, Syria, Turkey, and Venezuela among others.  These named countries could have collectively authored the authorized handbook Been Sanctioned?  I’ve Been Too.  This Is Your Definitive Guide To Get Through Them And Around Them.  

Last thoughts….  

The Republican Party is projected to gain control of the United States House of Representatives as a result of the November 2022 mid-term elections in the United States.  Republican leadership has already shared there will be at least two high-profile investigations commencing soon after they control the chamber in January 2023:   

1) Hunter Biden (son of United States President Joseph Biden) and his relationship with Ukraine and 2) Hunter Biden and his relationship with China.   

Ukraine will continue to be a part of the political discourse in the United States through the remainder of 2022 (as an election issue), and then in 2023 leading into the November 2024 Presidential election- and not in a helpful way for Ukraine- even with the sympathy for the actions of the Russian Federation. 

If the Biden-Harris Administration implements a revised nuclear deal with Iran, the House of Representatives under Republican Party control will likely investigate that as well.  The United States Senate will follow too if the Republican Party takes control of that chamber. 

A reason (and this will be likely be a controversial perspective) for the Russian Federation-Ukraine conflict, invasion, war to have more resonance to the United States, members of NATO, members of the EU, and other countries is the story is not about two countries whose location is in the Middle East and whose populations are Muslim who follow Islam.  For some in the United States, Ukrainians are white, they dress in “Western” costumes, they follow the Christian (Orthodox) faith, have a president who is of the Jewish faith, and seem “like us” so they must be worth defending- up to a point and that point being sacrificing a member of the United States armed forces fighting members of the armed forces of the Russian Federation on behalf of anyone. 

For everyone in Ukraine, the invasion, war, conflict is real.  There is no blue screen used by motion pictures to simulate carnage- while keeping the actors safe.  For everyone outside of Ukraine, the reality is virtual- viewed at leisure from the safety and comfort of their home theatres, on their computers, or on their smart phones. 

Few people remain alive who fought in World War II.  That is unfortunate because those men and women appreciate the reality of nation-on-nation combat.  Theirs was a war fought when foes could see and hear one another, not using drones.  World War III was about protecting ideas and ideals.  That’s true today too for the Ukraine-Russian Federation war.