This Year, APEC, G20 Summits Timing Important. Some Leaders Want To Give Biden The Beating He Wanted To Give Trump. Watching For Coffee With Lavrov- From Erdogan Playbook. Good No Zelensky.
Why Is This Year’s APEC Summit And G20 Summit So Important? Hint: DJT
APEC Members Will Be Polite To President Biden, But Privately Most Will Be Cursing Him- And Want To Do To Him What He Wanted To Do To President Trump
President Biden Should Meet With Minister Lavrov
The annual APEC Summit And G20 Summit can be politically useful, although diminishing in recent years, while maintaining meaningful media attention given there are twenty-two members of APEC and twenty members of the G20, with some countries participating in both, particularly Canada, China, Japan, Mexico, Republic of Korea, Russian Federation, and United States.
This year is different. The once-removed re-election of Donald Trump as the 47th President of the United States has upended intelligence modeling in every capital in the world. Everyone wants to hear what others are thinking, fearing, and planning.
Whether autocracy, democracy, dictatorship, or monarchy, replacing the Biden-Harris Administration (2021-2025) with the Trump-Vance Administration (2025-2029) defines seismic. For some governments it is horrific. For other governments it is an opportunity. For still others it is annus horribilis.
For the government of Peru and for the government of Brasil, every participating head of state and head of government to the APEC Meeting and the G20 Summit, respectively, will use the opportunity to discuss “what’s next for us?” with their counterparts. Trying to determine who has- or believes they have a “relationship” with Donald Trump. What they know going in is whatever they think they have, whatever they want to have, is likely not going to be what they will get. They learned that painfully from 2017 to 2021.
Joseph Biden, 46th President of the United States, has mentioned more than once his desire to take Donald Trump, 45th President of the United States (2017-2021) and now the 47th President-elect of the United States (2025-2029), out to the back yard and give him a beating.
When President Biden arrives to Lima, Peru, to participate in his final Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Leaders’ Meeting (AELM) on 15/16 November 2024, there will be some heads of state and heads of government who will want to take him out to the back yard and give him a beating.
Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC): Australia, Brunei, Canada, Chile, China, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Papua New Guinea, Peru, Philippines, Russia, Singapore, Republic of Korea, Chinese Taipei (Taiwan), Thailand, United States, Vietnam.
Those heads of state and heads of government participating in the G20 Leaders’ Summit in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, on 18/19 November 2024 will also need be restrained from a collective pummeling President Biden. Collectively, the G20 member countries have far more to worry about from a Trump-Vance Administration than do member countries of APEC given the value of the bilateral relationships and the inter-woven multilateral nature of those relationships.
Group of 20 (G20): Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Republic of Korea, Russian Federation, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Turkiye, United Kingdom, United States.
Why the animosity? Because most, but not all, heads of state and heads of government were not enthralled by the prospect of a second Biden-Harris Administration or a first Harris-Walz Administration, but either was preferred to a Trump-Vance Administration. Governments want predictability- President Biden provided it. President Trump thrives upon avoiding it.
While Joseph Biden retires on 20 January 2025 to his multi-million dollar home in Rehoboth Beach, Delaware, the Trump-Vance Administration will enter office fully-charged, fully-fueled, fully-loaded, and prepared to take aim- commercially, economically, financially, militarily, and politically, at any government perceived as taking advantage of United States taxpayers.
From the perspective of President Trump, that means an abundance of targets (there are 193 members of the New York, New York-based United Nations (UN)). To paraphrase President Trump, “I have some real issues with you people.”
For example, the government of China continues to maintain its status as a “developing country” within multilateral agreements (World Trade Organization (WTO)), membership in international organizations (UN) and at gatherings including for APEC, annual Conference of the Parties (COP) discussing climate issues, and the G20.
President Trump scoffs at a “developing country” defined as the world’s second-largest economy, world’s largest standing army, world’s second largest defense budget, a space program (with a space station), and using military force to basically seek control of the East China Sea, Philippine Sea, South China Sea, and Taiwan Strait. The Biden-Harris Administration never made this an issue. The Trump-Vance Administration will make this an issue.
“China’s trade surplus is on track to hit a record this year, increasingly putting it on a collision course with some of the world’s biggest economies by aggravating an imbalance in global commerce and potentially provoking Trump. The difference between Chinese exports and imports is set to reach almost US$1 trillion if it continues to widen at the same pace as it has in the year to date, according to Bloomberg calculations.”
In some respects, President Biden will be a ghost in both Lima and Rio de Janeiro. He is transparent. There is no solidity. There is no longer any gravitas. There are few decisions he can make which expect a lifespan of more than seventy days. His colleagues will greet him warmly, even affectionately.
However, they will be sending off an old man who remained past his political expiration date- and still seems to not realize it. When he squints and reads from his cards and teleprompter, when he shuffles, when he appears confused, when he reflects nothing but oldness, the other heads of state and heads of government will weave thoughts from gratitude for what he accomplished during his four-year presidency to resentment that he would not be the bridge to the next generation he promised to be, but then did not believe anyone could do the job as he could. That decision was costly. Both for the United States and for other countries.
President Biden could, however, use both the APEC Meeting and G20 Leaders’ Summit to re-engage with the government of the Russian Federation. Sergei Lavrov, Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation, will again represent the government at the APEC Meeting and G20 Leaders’ Summit, as he has since 2022.
True, the Biden-Harris Administration has less than seventy days remaining in its four-year term, but there remain issues other than the Russian Federation-Ukraine war which are bilaterally important commercially, economically, financially, militarily, and politically - and both governments might just find solutions to them or prepare foundations for the Trump-Vance Administration. But, those outcomes only come about through direct engagement.
Recep Tayyip Erdogan, President of the Republic of Turkiye (2014- ), a North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) member, earlier this month while in Budapest, Hungary, took time for coffee (looked like a cappuccino) and cookies with the Prime Minister of Greece (European Union (EU), NATO) and President of the Republic of Cyprus (EU).
If the three of them, given their substantive political divisions, can engage directly, casually having coffee and sweets, then President Biden should project the fortitude to engage directly with Minister Lavrov in Lima and Rio de Janeiro.
It is always possible that a discussion commenced in Lima might have a resolution at a discussion days later in Rio de Janeiro.
Diplomacy is not defined as engaging with who you agree with, it is defined by engaging with who you do not agree with.
Groupings
Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC): Australia, Brunei, Canada, Chile, China, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Papua New Guinea, Peru, Philippines, Russia, Singapore, Republic of Korea, Chinese Taipei (Taiwan), Thailand, United States, Vietnam.
European Union (EU): Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden.
Group of 7 (G7): (2014-Present) includes Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, United Kingdom, and United States. The Russian Federation was excluded in 2014 due to its military actions on the Crimean Peninsula in Ukraine.
Group of 20 (G20): Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Republic of Korea, Russian Federation, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Turkiye, United Kingdom, United States.
BRICS: Argentina, Brazil, China, Egypt, Ethiopia, India, Iran, Russian Federation, China, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, United Arab Emirates. Saudi Arabia considering membership.
Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO): China, Russia, Belarus, India, Iran, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Pakistan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan.
North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO): United States, United Kingdom, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, Finland, France, Iceland, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Albania, Lithuania, Bulgaria, Montenegro, Croatia, Czech Republic, Poland, Estonia, Romania, Germany, Slovakia, Greece, Slovenia, Hungary, Spain, Turkiye, Latvia, and North Macedonia, Sweden.
United Nations Security Council (UNSC): China, France, Russian Federation, United Kingdom, United States. Ten non-permanent members elected for two-year terms by the General Assembly (with end of term year): Algeria (2025), Ecuador (2024), Guyana (2025), Japan (2024), Malta (2024), Mozambique (2024), Republic of Korea (2025), Sierra Leone (2025), Slovenia (2025), Switzerland (2024).