Are Peacekeepers Required For Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire, Peace Agreement? Critical For Peacekeepers? Russia And Ukraine Must Fear Them, Respect Them, Scared To Kill Them. Two Options?
Are Peacekeepers Required To Maintain Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire? A Peace Agreement?
If Peacekeepers Are Deployed, Where Along Lines Of Control? Inside Of “Ukraine” Or Inside Of “Russia”? More Than 1,000 Kilometers (600+ Miles) From Southwest Of Kherson To East Of Kharkiv?
Most Important Characteristics For Peacekeeping Force? Russia And Ukraine Must Fear Them, Respect Them, Not Want To Kill Any Of Them
Two Countries Might Have The Criteria
President Zelensky Has Since 24 February 2022 Criticized, Insulted, Mocked Many Heads Of State And Heads Of Government- Including Those Who Have Supported Ukraine
Might Panda Commandos Be The Compromise?
For President Zelensky, A Transition Through Seeking Peace, Just Peace, Just And Lasting Peace, Decent Peace, And Decades Of Peace
The government of Ukraine, the government of the Russian Federation, and the government of the United States publicly adhere to seeking an end to the Russian Federation-Ukraine war.
On 24 February 2022, the armed forces of the Russian Federation invaded and further invaded the territory of Ukraine in what President Putin defined as a Special Military Operation [SMO] then on 22 December 2022 he redefined as a war. The initial invasion of Ukraine by the armed forces of the Russian Federation was in part from the territory of Belarus.
The war between the Russian Federation and Ukraine did not commence on 24 February 2022. The roots began their trajectories on 20 February 2014 when the armed forces of the Russian Federation invaded the Crimean Peninsula and the area known as the Donbas Region (Donetsk Oblast and Luhansk Oblast).
Where the divergence begins for seeking an end to the Russian Federation-Ukraine war is defining the word “end” and continues through defining the “process” by which the war reaches an “end.”
Donald Trump, 47th President of the United States (2025-2029), wants ideally a simply executable cease fire.
Nothing but an agreement for the armed forces of the Russian Federation to cease firing into the internationally-recognized territory of Ukraine and the armed forces of Ukraine to cease firing into the internationally-recognized territory of Ukraine and into the internationally-recognized territory of the Russian Federation. No other components. Stop the bullets, drones, missiles, mortars, and rockets. Then, start talking about the other issues. Order of discussions from what should be the easiest to what will be the most difficult. Exchange all prisoners, exchange of the deceased, exchange of information about those missing in action (MIA), reunite those who want to be reunited.
The government of Ukraine wants a peacekeeping force to separate the armed forces of the Russian Federation from the armed forces of Ukraine. The government of the Russian Federation has provided publicly ambiguous interpretive guidance as to an acceptable peacekeeping force.
“We are talking about such a confrontational deployment of an ephemeral [lasting for a very short time] contingent.” Dmitry Peskov, Spokesperson for President of Russian Federation
The government of the Russian Federation provides clarity in what it will not accept- a peacekeeping force including personnel from any of the thirty-two member countries of the Brussels, Belgium-based North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). The government of the United States has confirmed it will not participate.
North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO): United States, United Kingdom, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, Finland, France, Iceland, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Albania, Lithuania, Bulgaria, Montenegro, Croatia, Czech Republic, Poland, Estonia, Romania, Germany, Slovakia, Greece, Slovenia, Hungary, Spain, Turkiye, Latvia, and North Macedonia, Sweden.
“We will view the presence of these [foreign] troops on Ukrainian soil the same way we viewed NATO’s potential presence in Ukraine.” Sergey Lavrov, Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation
Giorgia Meloni, Prime Minister of Italy (2022- ), has suggested expanding Article 5 of the NATO charter as a security guarantee to the government of Ukraine which would include the territory of Ukraine not occupied by the armed forces of the Russian Federation. This suggestion will not obtain required unanimity by the thirty-two NATO members and an important consideration is Article 5 does not require any NATO member to militarily defend another NATO member. Article 5 continues to be misunderstood because too few have read the text.
The position of the government of the Russian Federation as to the inclusion in a peacekeeping force by any of the twenty-seven member countries of the Brussels, Belgium-based European Union (EU) is ambiguous, but likely will eventually align with its position about NATO participation given the EU has a whole has implemented since 2014 Ukraine-related sanctions upon the public sector and private sector of the Russian Federation.
European Union (EU): Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden.
Where does that leave the discussion of a peacekeeping force? There is within the Trump-Vance Administration (2025-2029) a constituency questioning the necessity for a peacekeeping force. They argue a cease fire should be self-policing or, at minimum, should be afforded the opportunity to be self-policing.
If, however, President Trump, Vladimir Putin, President of the Russian Federation (2000-2008 and 2012- ), and Volodymyr Zelensky, President of Ukraine (2019-2024; extended due to imposition of martial law in 2022), concur and support a peacekeeping force, there are limited government candidates.
The absence in the trilateral peacekeeping force decision-making process of a substantive consultative role by the administrative leadership of the Brussels, Belgium-based European Commission (EC) and European Council (EC), along with the administrative leadership of NATO is likely to continue.
Who among the 193 members of the New York, New York-based United Nations (UN) would be acceptable to the governments of the Russian Federation Ukraine, and United States? To all the interested parties?
One consideration is cost. In January 2025, President Zelensky advocated for a peacekeeping force of approximately 200,000 personnel from the EU and NATO (including United States). The cost annually is approximately US$55.2 billion. Not happening. EU members are thinking about no more than 20,000 to 30,000 with unknown funding sources.
Given the length of territory likely to be monitored by a peacekeeping force, the government or governments will need to devote resources covering approximately 1,000 kilometers (approximately six hundred miles). Uknown is the width of the corridor occupied by a peacekeeping force. The peacekeeping force will need to be flexible, elastic, and have operational connectivity.
A peacekeeping force will be armed- and they will require authorization in advance to respond to incoming bullets, drones, missiles, and rockets impacting their positions. The worst result is inserting a peacekeeping force and then that peacekeeping force withdrawing under fire.
What is essential for participation in a peacekeeping force? 1) The government or governments will need to be respected by the government of the Russian Federation and government of Ukraine 2) The government or governments will need to be feared by the government of the Russian Federation and government of Ukraine 3) The government or governments will need to have commercial, economic, financial, military (not essential), political, and social connectivity with the Russian Federation and Ukraine.
The personnel within a peacekeeping force must represent a nationality or nationalities who neither soldiers and officers in the armed forces of the Russian Federation and armed forces of Ukraine will want to risk injuring or murdering.
The potential government candidates to provide for a peacekeeping force quickly dwindles to two. The People’s Republic of China and the Republic of Turkiye.
Although Recep Tayyip Erdogan, President of the Republic of Turkiye (2014- ), has offered personnel from the Turkish Armed Forces (TAF), specifically the Turkish Land Forces (TLF), the public and private sectors within Turkiye have a complex and sensitive relationship with the public and private sectors in the Russian Federation.
Although the government of Turkiye was responsible for the Black Sea Grain Initiative, continues services of Turkish Airlines into the Russian Federation, maintains energy-related transactions with the public sector and private sector in the Russian Federation, has facilitated prisoner exchanges between Russian Federation and Ukraine, hosted government-to-government gatherings (Ukraine-Russian Federation, Russian Federation-United States, etc.), and has substantial private sector investment in Ukraine and in the Russian Federation, Istanbul, Turkiye-based Baykar has provided military drones to the armed forces of Ukraine and is establishing a US$95 million manufacturing facility in Ukraine. That military connectivity to the armed forces of Ukraine may create apprehension for the government of the Russian Federation.
Thus, while no other country has the deep reach within the Russian Federation and within Ukraine as does Turkiye, there may be constituencies in Turkiye who may advise President Erdogan that participating in a peacekeeping force, however from good motivations, might be best left for another government. Turkiye’s commercial relationship with the Russian Federation and Ukraine is far more important than may be the value earned by participating in peacekeeping operations.
“The issue of contributing to a mission will be considered if deemed necessary for establishing regional stability and peace and will be assessed mutually with all relevant parties.” Unnamed Source In Turkiye Quoted In Media
That leaves the government of the People’s Republic of China which has the personnel, financial resources, motivation, and connectivity with the Russian Federation and Ukraine. The one issue for Ukraine is President Zelensky’s publicly maintaining that the armed forces of the Russian Federation would not have the resources to continue targeting the armed forces of Ukraine without the commercial, economic, financial, military, and political support from the government of the People’s Republic of China. The government of Ukraine will put aside the concerns about military connectivity.
For the government of the People’s Republic of China, a peacekeeping force opportunity may be enticing as Xi Jinping, President of the People's Republic of China (2013- ), continues to seek a broader global role for the country.
The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) has approximately 2 million active personnel and approximately 510,000 reserve personnel.
Wikipedia: “The PLA is the military of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and the People's Republic of China (PRC). It consists of four services: Ground Force, Navy, Air Force, Rocket Force, and four arms: Aerospace Force, Cyberspace Force, Information Support Force, and Joint Logistics Support Force. The PLA is led by the Central Military Commission (CMC) with its chairman as commander-in-chief.”
“Elite Special Forces within the PLA include: Snow Leopard Commandos; Falcon Commandos; PLA Air Force; Sea Dragon Commandos; Tigers of Siberia; Sword of the State; Red Sea Dragons and Panda Commandos.”
“The Panda Commandos are trained to conduct peacekeeping and humanitarian missions, including disaster relief and refugee assistance. The Panda Commandos are also trained in advanced medical techniques and emergency response procedures. They have a role in Peacekeeping and Humanitarian Missions. They are trained to conduct peacekeeping and humanitarian missions, including disaster relief and refugee assistance, and trained in advanced medical techniques and emergency response procedures.”
“China is willing to continue to play a constructive role in the final resolution of the crisis and the realization of lasting peace, in accordance with the wishes of the parties concerned, together with the international community… a fair, lasting and binding peace agreement… If every country emphasizes its own national priorities and believes in strength and status, the world will regress to the law of the jungle, small and weak countries will bear the brunt. Major powers ... should not be profit-driven, and they should not bully the weak.” Wang Yi, Minister of Foreign Affairs of the People’s Republic of China
