White House Weighs Visit To Ukraine By Vice President Kamala Harris. To Kyiv Or Lviv For Meeting With President Zelensky. Is A Deliverable Required? No.
White House Weighs Visit To Ukraine By Vice President Kamala Harris. To Kyiv Or Lviv For Meeting With President Zelensky.
Audacious, Il-Advised, or Reckless?
Vice President Harris Has Yet To Achieve Gravitas Threshold To Be Viewed As Presidential Rather Than Vice Presidential- A Visit To Ukraine Could Be Transformative.
The White House Needs To Promote That Vice President Harris Can Be President Harris. Thus Far, They Have Failed.
Fourteen Presidents And Thirteen Prime Ministers Have Visited Ukraine Since 15 March 2022, Some More Than Once- All Traveled By Train.
Let Her Go With Or Without A Deliverable.
Officials within the Biden-Harris Administration (2019- ) at The White House, United States Department of Defense, United States Department of State, and United States Agency for International Development (USAID) continue to evaluate the viability of a visit to Ukraine by Kamala Harris (Democrat-California), Vice President of the United States.
One consideration is for a visit to Ukraine by Vice President Harris during or following the “Lame Duck” session of the 117th United States Congress which commenced on 28 November 2022 and will conclude by the end of December 2022 during which there are seventeen (17) legislative days scheduled. One challenge is the 100-member United States Senate remains evenly divided and in event of a tie vote, the Vice President may cast the tie-breaking vote.
However, a visit to Ukraine could coincide with non-legislative days, particularly when the legislative calendar in the United States Senate is controlled by the Democratic Party.
The Vice President would travel approximately ten hours on the Boeing 757-200 (C-32) Air Force Two from Joint Base Andrews in Maryland to a military base or civilian airport located in Poland near the border with Ukraine and travel approximately thirty miles by vehicle to Lviv, Ukraine (as Recep Tayyip Erdogan, President of the Republic of Turkiye did in August 2022 for a meeting with Volodymyr Zelensky, President of Ukraine), or by train approximately nine hours for the approximately 300-mile journey to Kyiv. A bold move would be for the Vice President to use a Sikorsky VH-60N Marine Two helicopter for a one-way journey of approximately ninety minutes. The VH-60N has a speed of approximately 183mph, range of 1,1199 miles, and ceiling of 19,000 feet. The roundtrip journey from the United States could be completed in approximately forty-eight (48) hours.
Vice President Harris could be the first government official from any country since 24 February 2022 to use an aircraft to travel within Ukraine. Such a journey would deliver an unmistakable message to the government of Ukraine- that support of the Biden-Harris Administration is worth a dramatic entrance and would deliver an unmistakable message to the government of the Russian Federation- that those who oppose its decisions relating to Ukraine will not be cowed.
There would be criticism that the Vice President of the United States use an aircraft within contested airspace- which has been closed to commercial air traffic since 24 February 2022, is ill-advised or worse, reckless. Use of a train, as have fourteen heads of state and thirteen heads of government, would be less available for criticism.
According to senior-level officials and mid-level officials within the Biden-Harris Administration, Vice President Harris and her staff are affirmative towards scheduling a visit to Ukraine. A visit to Ukraine in December 2022 could benefit Biden-Harris Administration legislative efforts relating to Ukraine.
The Biden-Harris Administration supports new legislation which would guarantee humanitarian, financial, government operations, and military equipment funding for Ukraine be available through at minimum 24 February 2023, the one-year anniversary of the invasion and further invasion of Ukraine by the armed forces of the Russian Federation. The value for new legislation most often referenced, on-the-record and on background, is approximately US$40 billion.
Since 24 February 2022, at the current rate of spending (including US$40 billion in new authority), United States taxpayer borrowing for use relating directly and indirectly to Ukraine will total approximately US$110 billion by 24 February 2023. Important to note that not all the funds have been dispersed- military equipment orders will not become deliverable military equipment in some instances until 2023 and continuing through 2026. This value does not include lending facilities provided by international financial institutions to which United States taxpayers are meaningful contributors including the World Bank and International Monetary Fund (IMF).
And with Biden-Harris Administration officials reiterating that the war between Ukraine and the Russian Federation is more than a one-year event, at existing spending trajectories that timeline would equate to approximately US$100 billion annually in United States taxpayer borrowing.
In addition to the borrowing by United States taxpayers, the twenty-seven country European Union (EU) and its Europe-based affiliated financial institutions and the thirty-country North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), of which the United States is an integral member, will collectively ask their taxpayers to borrow for 2023 approximately US$50 billion relating directly and indirectly to Ukraine which is added to approximately US$30 billion in borrowing thus far in 2022. Neither all EU nor NATO member funds have been distributed.
Joseph Biden (Democrat- Delaware), 46th President of the United States, has not declared officially his candidacy to seek again the nomination of the Democratic Party for the presidential election scheduled for 5 November 2024. He has shared the decision is expected during the first quarter of 2023. Speculation continues that he will not seek re-election. He is eighty years old and would be eighty-six years old on 20 January 2029 at the conclusion of his second term. His behavior, demeanor, and slowness with physicality reinforces increasingly that of an old man (with recurring moderate health issues) becoming older and not wanting to project old- trying to make old look cool, hip. Both the Democratic Party and Republican Party have been focusing upon implementing generational changes in their respective leadership. Earlier this month, the three Democratic leaders of the United States House of Representatives, each more than eighty years old, relinquished, though reluctantly, their positions as Speaker, Majority Leader, and Majority Whip.
Vice President Harris, fifty-eight years old, has steadily increased her global policy portfolio. There have been visits with heads of state and heads of government during her travels abroad and in Washington DC, both at The White House and for breakfasts, lunches, and dinners at One Observatory Circle, the official residence of the vice president. In March 2022, Vice President Harris visited Bucharest, Romania, and Warsaw, Poland, to reinforce support for Ukraine.
Belatedly, The White House is focusing as it should upon demonstrating and then reinforcing to the public in the United States and in other countries that Vice President Harris as not only a competent Vice President, but an acceptable, credible successor to President Biden should there be prior to 5 November 2024 a reason for her to become the 47th President of the United States, but more importantly the expected nominee of the Democratic Party in 2024 should President Biden not seek re-election. The messaging should be that if President Biden believes Vice President Harris to be competent enough to be Vice President and President, so too should supporters of the Democratic Party. To date, there remains work to do towards that transformation due to numerous missteps, primarily self-inflected by the Biden-Harris Administration.
Although President Biden was in Bali, Indonesia, on 15/16 November 2022 to participate in the G20 Leaders’ Summit, and Bangkok, Thailand, was approximately four hours by Air Force One, he preferred to return to Washington DC to participate in the wedding of one of his grandchildren rather than participate in the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Leaders Meeting. That decision permitted Xi Jinping, President of the People’s Republic of China, to have prominence at the event and was a sacrificed opportunity for President Biden to again visit with President Xi- when President Biden has for decades espoused the value of face-to-face interaction.
President Biden should have attended APEC- particularly when all of the heads of state and heads of government in attendance remain essential to the foreign policy of the United States, according to President Biden. So, Vice President Harris traveled 17,592 miles: 8,796 miles from Joint Base Andrews in Maryland- approximately twenty hours on Air Force Two to Bangkok; added a visit to Manila, Philippines, and the island of Palawan before traveling again 8,796 miles to Joint Base Andrews. While useful for Vice President Harris, an irresponsible use of taxpayer funds when President Biden could have attended the event.
If the Biden-Harris Administration does obtain the value of Ukraine-related legislation it seeks during the “Lame Duck” session of the 117th United States Congress, then there would also be a “deliverable” for Vice President Harris to reinforce during a visit to Ukraine… and politicians always seek connectivity with deliverables. If the Biden-Harris Administration does not obtain all that it seeks in the legislation, a visit by Vice President Harris to Ukraine continues to have value.
Background On Government Officials Visiting Ukraine Since 24 February 2022
On 24 February 2022, the armed forces of the Russian Federation attacked areas within the territory of Ukraine.
From 24 February 2022 through 14 March 2022, government officials from other countries did not travel to Ukraine.
Since 15 March 2022, fourteen presidents (two twice), thirteen prime ministers (four twice, one three times), two chancellors, three deputy prime minister, twelve foreign ministers (some more than once), one U.S. secretary of state (twice), three secretaries (ministers) of defense, on attorney general, president of European Commission (EC)(twice), president of the European Council (EC), president of European Parliament (EP), Secretary-General of the United Nations (twice), the speaker of the United States House of Representatives, and a first lady have visited Ukraine. Members of the United States Senate, United States House of Representatives, and Parliaments have also visited Ukraine.
Each of these individuals, accompanied by their respective staff and security detail, traveled from Poland into Ukraine by vehicle or train (in a VIP carriage complete with bedrooms and meeting rooms). Armored vehicles have been transported by road from Poland to Lviv and Kyiv.
